Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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627
FNUS74 KAMA 120341 AAA
FWSAMA

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH ROSITA RX...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
941 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CST ON FEBRUARY 12.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE BURN SITE AROUND 3 AM SWITCHING THE WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH. 20 FOOT WINDS COULD BE UP AROUND 15 MPH RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THEN THEY SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND 7 MPH BY
5 AM. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEY
WILL GET A LITTLE STRONGER. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AND THEY WILL INCREASE SOME MORE. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 3 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............37     50     60     64     63
RH..............69     43     33     30     32
20 FT WIND......NE 8   NE 9   E 9    E 9    E 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      4      4      4

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 9 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1500 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 17
                    TO 18 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY
WEATHER COV.....                     PATCHY PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   FOG    FOG    FOG
TEMP............57     46     40     36     33     30
RH..............40     59     75     88     95     100
20 FT WIND......SE 9   SE 10  SE 12  SE 13  SE 13  SE 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     20     20     15
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      5      5      5

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 18 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 17 TO 25 MPH.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG    FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............28     28     41     53     61     62
RH..............100    100    72     47     38     37
20 FT WIND......S 12   S 14   S 16   S 18   S 18   S 17
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     25     25     25     25
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...GOEHRING
REQUESTED BY...TODD WOOD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160212.SOUTH.01/AMA



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