Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 211244
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR STROMBOLIS...DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
844 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON MAY 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND WILL
CROSS THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 4PM AND 6PM...BRINGING SCATTERED
FAIRLY LIGHT AND HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
WILL BE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND
GREAT VENTILATION. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MIX DOWN SOME DRY
AIR FROM ALOFT...BUT A CLOSER PROXIMITY TO GRAND TRAVERSE BAY
WILL RESULT IN HUMIDITIES LIKELY STAYING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. THIS
MIXING WILL ALSO DRAW DOWN SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 MPH.
CAVEAT HERE IS THE NEAR PROXIMITY TO THE BAY AND LAKES TO THE
NORTH COULD ADD MORE OF A NORTH COMPONENT TO THE WIND DUE TO LAKE
BREEZES. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN
RATHER GUSTY INTO THE EVENING...WHILE COOLER AIR IS ADVECTED IN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS
                    ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND HIGH BASED.
TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 63.
RH..................37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 32 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST...POSSIBLY NORTHWEST AT 9-11 MPH
                    GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH AT IGNITION...THEN
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE LATE
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTS DEVELOPING AGAIN TO AROUND
                    20 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 24 MPH
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6200 FT AGL AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE 6200-7400 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (1200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1900).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28  41  47  54  69  76
WEATHER COV.....                    SCT
WEATHER TYPE....                    RW
TEMP............60  61  62  62  61  60
RH..............37  35  32  33  35  36
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..8   9   9   9   8   7
20 FT WIND GUST.15  20  20  20  20  20
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......120014001500170019001800

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLEAR (0-5 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING. PATCHY FROST EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 33.
RH..................MAX 75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 5
                    TO 13 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........72  65  61  51  32  19  9   0   0   0   0   0
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT                                     PTY
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW                                      FST
TEMP............58  56  54  51  47  44  41  39  38  36  35  35
RH..............37  40  41  46  53  60  65  67  67  69  72  72
20 FT WIND DIR..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   6   6   5   4   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  15  15  10  10  5   5   5   5   5

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR. AREAS OF FROST. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS
AROUND 70. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...JIM FISHER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20150521.STROM.01/APX



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