774
FNUS73 KAPX 070730
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for South County Line RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Passing high clouds this morning at the burn site
gradually thicken/lower midday in advance of increasing
rain shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, mainly at 2 PM.
Prior to rain arrival, a brief window exists for RHs to fall to near
40 percent. Light winds this morning turn breezy out of the southeast
with gusts as high as 20-25 mph through the afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Becoming mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........41 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near any thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph increasing to 20 to 25
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2200 ft AGL increasing to 1400-3100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (72.0-515.0) increasing to poor to
                    good (396.0-778.0) in the afternoon, then
                    decreasing to poor (274.0) late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  38  46  53  66  80  93  90  88  85
Weather cov.....                    ISO NUM DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............47  51  58  62  65  68  69  66  68  65
RH..............65  59  45  43  41  43  45  56  59  68
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..9   14  14  14  15  15  15  15  15  15
20 ft wind gust.20  22  22  22  23  23  23  24  24  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 1.4 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.4
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  20  20  23  24  25  25  24  23  20
Vrate kt-ft.....72  242 272 515 646 778 760 505 396 274
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  FR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms overnight. Patchy fog overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........93 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near any thunderstorms in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 21 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 10 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight, then shifting to the west 9 to 12
                    mph overnight.
Mixing height.......400-1500 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (39.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........85  86  86  77  67  57  65  73  80  78  76  74
Weather cov.....NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT ISO ISO ISO SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RNF RNF RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............65  65  63  61  59  58  56  54  53  53  52  51
RH..............68  68  78  81  87  86  86  93  93  89  93  93
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  9   9   9   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.22  22  22  14  14  14  9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.21  17  14  13  9   10  10  10  9   12  9   10
Vrate kt-ft.....303 173 117 78  44  58  52  47  43  52  39  47
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........61 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 8 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 14
                    to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2300-2400 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (50.0-406.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........70     62     57     55     43     36
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............51     52     55     60     62     62
RH..............89     86     83     72     67     62
20 ft wind dir..SW     SW     W      W      W      NW
20 ft wind spd..7      7      10     10     10     10
20 ft wind gust.9      9      15     17     17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1000   1500   2100   2400
Haines index....3      4      4      4      3      3
Transport wind..W 12   W 12   W 13   W 14   W 18   NW 16
Vrate kt-ft.....51     59     127    213    385    373
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Nieland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413287.0/APX
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Joseph.Raspotnik@usda.gov