Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 181349
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Britt Rd. Piles...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
849 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EST on December 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Southwest winds will occur today and early tonight,
ahead of a cold front this will cross northern Michigan overnight.
Spotty snow showers will be seen early this morning, perhaps
mixing with some freezing drizzle this morning. Tempratures will
rise above freezing toward midday, with just some drizzle chances
after that. Humidity levels will remain quite high today.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning, then widespread fog early in the
                    morning. Chance of snow showers and slight
                    chance of light freezing drizzle in the
                    morning, then slight chance of drizzle and snow
                    showers in the afternoon.
Temperature.........31 at ignition...Max 36.
RH..................88 percent at ignition...Min 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 2 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 800-2100 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor /100 at ignition. Max...good /300/.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 2.

TIME (EST)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  88  86  84  83  81  81
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....FZD SW  SW  DZL DZL
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  33  34  35  35  35  34
RH..............88  85  85  85  85  85  89
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.0
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   10  12  13  14  15  15
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate/100.......1   1   2   2   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent).
Temperature.........Min 31.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph with
                    occasional gusts up to 16 mph early in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......1100-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 25 mph.
Vent rate...........Fair to good (200-300).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........81  81  82  83  84  84  85  85  84  83  82  79
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............34  33  33  33  33  33  34  34  34  35  35  35
RH..............89  92  92  89  89  89  89  89  89  89  89  89
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   5   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  16  16  17  18  21  24  25  24  21  20  21
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
VRate/100.......3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........Max 39.
RH..................Min 69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph early
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200-3000 ft AGL increasing to 3400-3800 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....West 23 to 32 mph increasing to 31 to 33 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Vent rate...........Good to excellent (300-1200).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........77     72     65     51     44     37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............36     36     36     36     36     35
RH..............85     85     85     82     75     69
20 ft wind......SW 6   W 7    W 7    W 8    W 9    W 8
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1900   3000   3700   3800   3600
Transport wind..SW 23  W 29   W 33   W 33   W 32   W 31
Haines index....2      2      3      3      3      3
VRate/100.......3      5      10     12     12     11

$$
Forecaster...Monique Runyan
Requested by...Patrick Hayes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1720053.0/APX



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