Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 241238
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Payne Gulch Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
538 AM MST Sat Feb 24 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Strong westerly flow aloft will bring gusty winds
and very good to excellent smoke dispersion to the burn site
today. Winds should settle down this evening, and then similar
conditions can be expected again for Sunday. Dry conditions will
persist through Tuesday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 22.
Min humidity........34%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10-20 mph with gusts to around 32
                    mph.
Mixing height.......2900-3900 ft AGL until 1100, then 3800-4800 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 25-30 mph until 1100, then 30-40 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 0900, then good until 1000, then
                    very good until 1100, then excellent until
                    1500, then very good until 1600, then good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(35-45%).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 5 above.
Max humidity........69%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8-14 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph.
Mixing height.......1400-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 2000, then poor until 2200, then
                    fair until 2400, then poor.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(35-45%) until 1100, then mostly
                    sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 25.
Min humidity........34%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8-14 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300-1800 ft AGL until 0900, then 4500-5500 ft
                    AGL until 1100, then 6800-7800 ft AGL until
                    1400, then 3700-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then good until 1000, then
                    very good until 1100, then excellent until
                    1300, then very good until 1500, then good
                    until 1600, then fair.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...
Not as cool. Mostly clear. Lows around 10. Highs in the mid 30s.
West winds 8-12 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 15. Highs in the upper 30s. Southwest
winds 6-7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows around 17. Highs in
the mid 30s. West winds 5-6 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy with chance of snow showers. Lows around 13. Highs
in the mid 30s.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 17. Highs around 40.


Fire Weather Table for Payne Gulch Piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/24-08 19  2  0 13 48 WNW 17 28 3 1         2376 WNW 26 55779  F
02/24-09 16  0  0 15 42 WNW 21 32 3 1         3411 WNW 30 88641   G
02/24-10 13  1  0 17 38   W 23 36 3 1         4446 WNW 32126698    V
02/24-11 11  1  0 19 35   W 24 38 3 1         5481 WNW 36169951     E
02/24-12 13  1  0 21 34   W 22 35 3 1         5247 WNW 37166423     E
02/24-13 15  1  0 22 34   W 17 28 2 1         5014 WNW 37162564     E
02/24-14 17  0  0 22 36   W 14 22 2 1         4780 WNW 38158373     E
02/24-15 20  0  0 21 37   W 14 22 2 1         3972   W 35117625    V
02/24-16 23  0  0 20 37   W 15 24 2 1         3165   W 30 82565   G
02/24-17 27  0  0 17 40   W 15 24 2 1         2357   W 26 53195  F
02/24-18 30  0  0 14 46   W 16 25 2 1         2177   W 25 46862  F
02/24-19 33  0  0 10 55   W 16 25 2 1         1996   W 23 40904  F
02/24-20 37  2  0  8 60   W 16 25 2 1         1816   W 22 35321 P
02/24-21 40  4  1  6 66   W 14 22 2 1         1824   W 24 37769 P
02/24-22 43  6  1  5 69 WSW 13 21 2 1         1832   W 25 40237  F
02/24-23 47 10  2  5 69 WSW 10 22 2 1         1840   W 26 42725  F
02/25-00 50 10  2  6 66 WSW 10 22 2 1         1732   W 26 39035 P
02/25-01 48 10  2  7 63   W 10 21 2 1         1625   W 25 35493 P
02/25-02 47 10  2  8 57 WSW 10 21 2 1         1517   W 24 32099 P
02/25-03 45 10  2  7 60   W 10 21 2 1         1453   W 23 28749 P
02/25-04 44 10  2  6 62   W 12 21 3 1         1389   W 22 25796 P
02/25-05 43 12  2  6 66   W 12 16 3 1         1325   W 20 22998 P
02/25-06 42 12  2  8 63   W 10 14 3 1         1498   W 20 25349 P
02/25-07 43 12  2 10 60   W 10 13 3 1         1670   W 18 27551 P
02/25-08 43 12  2 13 53   W 10 14 3 1         1842   W 18 29607 P
02/25-09 40 12  2 15 48   W 12 18 3 1         3946   W 22 73020   G
02/25-10 33 12  2 18 40   W 14 24 3 1         6049   W 24126688    V
02/25-11 29  4  1 20 37   W 15 29 3 1         8152   W 26190610     E
02/25-12 26  4  1 23 34   W 15 30 3 1         7207   W 25159626     E
02/25-13 20  4  1 24 34   W 15 28 2 1         6263   W 24130975    V
02/25-14 17  4  1 25 34   W 14 26 2 1         5318   W 23104656    V
02/25-15 19  4  1 25 34   W 14 25 2 1         4234   W 22 78850   G
02/25-16 19  4  1 23 38   W 13 25 2 1         3149   W 21 55330  F
02/25-17 18  1  0 21 39   W 13 24 2 1         2064   W 20 34096 P
02/25-18 18  1  0 17 44   W 13 22 2 1         1705   W 18 27906 P
02/25-19 18  1  0 14 50   W 13 21 2 1         1345   W 18 21823 P
02/25-20 17  1  0 11 55   W 13 20 2 1          986   W 18 15846 P
02/25-21 17  1  0 10 55   W 13 21 2 1          996   W 20 17335 P
02/25-22 19  1  0 10 52   W 14 22 2 1         1006   W 22 18850 P
02/25-23 19  1  0 11 50   W 14 23 2 1         1015   W 23 20391 P
02/26-00 20  1  0 11 50   W 14 22 2 1         1031   W 23 20549 P
02/26-01 22  1  0 12 50 WSW 14 22 2 1         1046 WSW 23 20703 P
02/26-02 23  1  0 12 50 WSW 14 21 2 1         1061 WSW 23 20853 P
02/26-03 23  1  0 12 50 WSW 14 22 2 1         1052 WSW 23 21003 P
02/26-04 22  1  0 12 48 WSW 15 23 2 1         1042 WSW 23 21147 P
02/26-05 22  1  0 13 46 WSW 15 24 2 1         1033 WSW 24 21285 P
02/26-06 22  1  0 14 46 WSW 15 23 2 1         1039 WSW 23 21218 P
02/26-07 21  1  0 17 44 WSW 15 22 2 1         1046 WSW 23 21148 P
02/26-08 21  1  0 20 41 WSW 14 20 2 1         1053 WSW 23 21075 P
02/26-09 20  1  0 24 36 WSW 13 17 3 1         2405 WSW 28 57245  F
02/26-10 20  1  0 29 29 WSW 12 16 3 1         3757 WSW 32103646    V
02/26-11 19  1  0 33 26 WSW 12 16 4 1         5109 WSW 36160277     E
02/26-12 18  1  0 36 24 WSW 13 20 4 1         5890 WSW 37185682     E
02/26-13 15  1  0 38 22 WSW 14 24 4 1         6670 WSW 37211326     E
02/26-14 14  1  0 38 23 WSW 14 26 4 1         7451 WSW 37237211     E
02/26-15 16  1  0 37 26  SW 13 22 4 1         6228 WSW 33180807     E
02/26-16 20  1  0 35 28  SW 10 14 4 1         5004 WSW 30131261    V
02/26-17 22  1  0 32 31  SW  8  8 4 1         3781  SW 26 88572   G
02/26-18 21  1  0 29 35  SW  8  8 4 1         3180  SW 25 68730   G
02/26-19 20  1  0 25 42 WSW  8  8 3 1         2579  SW 23 51066  F
02/26-20 19  1  0 22 45 WSW  8  8 3 1         1978  SW 21 35581 P
02/26-21 18  1  0 19 49 WSW  8  9 3 1         1725 WSW 21 30681 P
02/26-22 15  1  0 18 49 WSW  9 10 3 1         1473 WSW 21 25887 P
02/26-23 14  1  0 17 51 WSW  9 12 2 1         1221 WSW 20 21197 P
02/27-00 14  1  0 16 53 WSW  9 12 2 1         1210 WSW 21 21400 P
02/27-01 14  1  0 16 56 WSW 10 12 2 1         1199 WSW 21 21596 P
02/27-02 14  1  0 16 56 WSW 10 12 2 1         1189 WSW 21 21785 P
02/27-03 13  1  0 15 58 WSW 10 12 2 1         1171 WSW 20 19632 P
02/27-04 11  1  0 15 55 WSW  9 10 2 1         1154 WSW 17 17533 P
02/27-05 10  1  0 16 53 WSW  9 10 2 1         1137   W 16 15488 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...BARJENBRUCH
REQUESTED BY...Craig Brown
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802248.2/BOU



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