Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 271431
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn Creek Unit 1 Piles...NATURE CONSERVANCY
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
731 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southwest winds will strengthen
today ahead of an approaching weather system. The winds will become
more westerly and decrease later tonight. Snow showers will mainly
be over the mountains today, but a few showers with accumulation of
an inch or two is likely overnight. The winds on Tuesday will be from
a more west to northwest direction.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(40-50%) until 0900, then mostly
                    cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers until
                    1100, then chance of snow showers.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 36.
Min humidity........40-45%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9-15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL until 1000, then 6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 mph increasing to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1000, then good until 1100, then excellent.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Snow showers likely until 2400, then
                    chance of snow showers.
CWR.................35 percent increasing to 45 percent in the
                    evening, then decreasing to 30 percent after
                    midnight decreasing to 20 percent after
                    midnight.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 14.
Max humidity........80-90%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8-14 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL until 2000...lowering to 1000 FT AGL
                    by 0300.
Transport winds.....West 20-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2000, then fair until 2200, then poor.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow until
                    1100, then chance of snow.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 26.
Min humidity........40-45%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9-15 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......Rising to 2000 FT AGL by 1000 and 4000 ft AGL
                    by 1300.
Transport winds.....West 20 mph increasing to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 11. Highs in the upper
20s. West winds 14-20 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 16. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds
8-16 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds
7-14 mph.


Fire Weather Table for Elkhorn Creek Unit 1 Piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/27-08 59 17  3 21 62 WSW 12 18 2 1 WSW 63  1115 WSW 20 18716 P
02/27-09 69 17  3 25 57  SW 13 21 2 1 WSW 64  2467 WSW 25 53399  F
02/27-10 66 17  3 29 51  SW 14 22 2 1 WSW 66  3819 WSW 31101224    V
02/27-11 73 40 18 33 47  SW 15 24 2 1 WSW 67  5171 WSW 36162191     E
02/27-12 61 41 18 35 45  SW 16 25 2 1 WSW 64  5538 WSW 36169088     E
02/27-13 63 41 18 36 46  SW 16 25 3 1 WSW 61  5904 WSW 35175377     E
02/27-14 82 42 19 36 48  SW 18 30 3 1 WSW 59  6270 WSW 33181058     E
02/27-15 78 44 21 34 54 WSW 17 28 3 1 WSW 56  5331  SW 30139639    V
02/27-16 87 44 21 33 56 WSW 17 28 3 1 WSW 54  4392  SW 28103259    V
02/27-17 94 58 35 31 61 WSW 15 24 3 1 WSW 52  3453  SW 24 71917   G
02/27-18 94 66 47 29 63   W 16 25 3 1 WSW 53  2707 WSW 23 54869  F
02/27-19 92 66 47 27 68   W 14 22 3 1   W 54  1961 WSW 23 38654 P
02/27-20 96 66 47 26 68   W 12 18 3 1   W 54  1215   W 22 23272 P
02/27-21 89 66 47 24 68   W 13 21 3 1   W 53  1440   W 21 26389 P
02/27-22 87 66 47 22 71 WNW 13 21 2 1 WSW 52  1665 WNW 21 29135 P
02/27-23 85 62 41 20 71 WNW 14 22 2 1 WSW 52  1889  NW 20 31509 P
02/28-00 83 53 28 18 77 WNW 14 22 2 1 WSW 52  1585 WNW 21 27937 P
02/28-01 82 44 21 17 80 WNW 14 22 2 1 WSW 53  1281   W 22 23790 P
02/28-02 80 40 18 16 80 WNW 14 22 2 1 WSW 53   977   W 23 19068 P
02/28-03 73 40 18 16 77   W 15 24 2 1 WSW 53   936   W 23 18497 P
02/28-04 72 40 18 15 80   W 15 24 2 1 WSW 53   895   W 23 17906 P
02/28-05 66 22  4 15 67   W 14 22 2 1 WSW 52   855   W 23 17296 P
02/28-06 64 22  4 15 65   W 14 21 2 1 WSW 51   853   W 22 16314 P
02/28-07 65 22  4 15 64   W 13 21 2 1 WSW 49   852   W 21 15526 P
02/28-08 66 22  4 16 61   W 13 21 2 1   W 45   746   W 18 12152 P
02/28-09 68 22  4 19 56   W 13 21 2 1 WSW 41  1965   W 22 37727 P
02/28-10 69 22  4 22 52   W 13 21 2 1 WSW 38  3184 WSW 25 70393   G
02/28-11 70 28  8 25 48   W 14 22 2 1 WSW 35  4403 WSW 29110151    V
02/28-12 72 28  8 26 46   W 15 24 2 1 WSW 39  4486 WSW 30117651    V
02/28-13 73 28  8 25 47   W 16 26 3 1 WSW 44  4570   W 31125353    V
02/28-14 75 28  8 24 48   W 17 28 3 1 WSW 48  4654   W 33133257    V
02/28-15 76 28  8 22 50   W 17 28 3 1 WSW 49  4589   W 35137819    V
02/28-16 78 28  8 21 49   W 17 28 3 1 WSW 52  4525   W 36142201    V
02/28-17 79 28  8 19 51   W 17 28 3 1 WSW 54  4460   W 38146403    V
02/28-18 74 28  8 17 55   W 17 28 3 1   W 49  3725   W 38121991    V
02/28-19 68 28  8 15 59   W 17 28 3 1   W 45  2989   W 38 97688   G
02/28-20 63 28  8 14 61   W 17 28 3 1 WNW 40  2254   W 38 73494   G
02/28-21 57 28  8 12 66   W 18 29 3 1 WNW 46  2762   W 40 97130   G
02/28-22 52 28  8 12 65   W 20 31 2 1 WNW 52  3270 WNW 44123367    V
02/28-23 46 13  3 11 66   W 21 33 2 1 WNW 58  3779 WNW 46152205     E
03/01-00 44 13  3 11 65   W 21 33 2 1 WNW 59  3583 WNW 46143307    V
03/01-01 42 13  3 11 64   W 22 35 2 1 WNW 60  3387 WNW 46134521    V
03/01-02 40 13  3 11 63   W 22 35 2 1 WNW 61  3192 WNW 45125845    V
03/01-03 37 13  3 11 63   W 23 37 2 1  NW 63  3138 WNW 46124147    V
03/01-04 35 13  3 11 63   W 24 39 2 1  NW 66  3084 WNW 46122434    V
03/01-05 33  3  1 11 63   W 25 40 2 1  NW 68  3030 WNW 46120707    V
03/01-06 30  3  1 11 63   W 24 39 3 1  NW 67  2742   W 47111038    V
03/01-07 23  3  1 12 60   W 23 37 3 1  NW 66  2453   W 47100988    V
03/01-08 19  3  1 14 56   W 22 35 4 1  NW 63  2165   W 48 90557   G
03/01-09 19  3  1 17 51   W 22 36 4 1  NW 59  2404   W 48100571    V
03/01-10 20  3  1 20 48   W 23 36 3 1 WNW 53  2642   W 48110593    V
03/01-11 20  1  0 24 44   W 23 37 3 1 WNW 48  2881   W 48120622    V
03/01-12 20  1  0 26 43   W 23 36 3 1 WNW 51  3029   W 47124430    V
03/01-13 20  1  0 27 43   W 22 35 4 1 WNW 52  3178   W 46128002    V
03/01-14 20  1  0 28 42   W 21 33 4 1 WNW 54  3326   W 45131337    V
03/01-15 20  1  0 28 42   W 20 31 4 1 WNW 54  3107   W 43116452    V
03/01-16 21  1  0 27 43   W 18 29 4 1 WNW 54  2887   W 40102446    V
03/01-17 24  0  0 25 46   W 17 28 4 1 WNW 54  2668   W 38 89318   G
03/01-18 24  0  0 23 49   W 16 26 4 1 WNW 53  2519   W 39 86394   G
03/01-19 23  0  0 22 50   W 16 25 3 1 WNW 51  2370   W 40 83227   G
03/01-20 23  0  0 21 52   W 16 25 3 1 WNW 49  2221   W 41 79816   G
03/01-21 24  0  0 21 52   W 17 26 3 1 WNW 48  2102   W 41 74793   G
03/01-22 26  0  0 21 53   W 17 29 3 1 WNW 47  1983   W 40 69853   G
03/01-23 26  0  0 21 54   W 18 30 3 1 WNW 47  1864   W 40 64998   G
03/02-00 26  0  0 20 57   W 18 29 3 1 WNW 51  1871   W 39 63548   G
03/02-01 26  0  0 19 59   W 17 28 2 1 WNW 55  1879   W 38 62084   G
03/02-02 26  0  0 18 62   W 16 25 2 1 WNW 59  1887   W 37 60607   G
03/02-03 26  0  0 17 64   W 15 24 2 1 WNW 61  1844   W 36 57486  F
03/02-04 26  0  0 17 64   W 14 22 2 1 WNW 62  1802   W 35 54447  F
03/02-05 25  0  0 17 64   W 13 21 2 1 WNW 64  1760   W 33 51488  F

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...Weston Toll
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702991.0/BOU



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