Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 111112
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Southwick prescribed fire...MA Div Fisheries & Wildlife
National Weather Service Taunton MA
712 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on August 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions this morning, then a few showers will shift into
the Connecticut valley after 2 PM this afternoon. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue tonight into
Saturday.

Minimum relative humidities in the Southwick area will range from
40 to 45 today, then 70 to 75 percent on Saturday.

OUTLOOK...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered showers with a few possible thunderstorms early Saturday
night, then should taper off around or after midnight. Dry
conditions Sunday and Sunday night. Scattered showers return late
Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, mainly along south coastal
areas. Conditions improve during the remainder of Tuesday. Dry
conditions Tuesday night through Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Good (33600 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......10, decreasing to 9.0 late.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Dewpoint............58.
LVORI...............2.
CWR.................6 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late.
Max apparent temp...81.
Surface winds.......South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4800-5500 ft AGL.
ADI.................29.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 10 mph.

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  72  66  74  83
Weather cov.....                SCH
Weather type....                RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   10  10  0   0
Temp............80  80  81  81  80
Dewpoint........59  58  58  57  57
RH..............49  47  46  44  45
Heat index (F)..81  81  81  81  80
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.5   5   6   7   7
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   9   10
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   1
ADI.............24  26  29  29  33
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100034  39  44  44  49
Ceiling (kft)...10  10  10  10  9.0

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4900-35900 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......9.0, decreasing to 1.0.
Min temperature.....Around 63.
Dewpoint............60.
LVORI...............4.
CWR.................0 percent, increasing to 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening, becoming
                    light and variable.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening, then a chance of
                    showers until just after midnight.
Max apparent temp...74.
Surface winds.......South winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening, becoming
                    light and variable.
Mixing height.......2600-4000 ft AGL, decreasing to 1000-1300 ft
                    AGL until just after midnight.
ADI.................26, decreasing to 5 until just after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 10 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........82  83  84  87  89  92  92  91  91  92  92  93
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   30  30  30  30  30  30  90  90  90  90
Temp............78  75  73  70  69  68  67  66  66  65  65  65
Dewpoint........59  59  60  60  61  61  61  62  62  62  62  62
RH..............52  58  64  71  76  78  81  87  87  90  90  90
Heat index (F)..78  75  73  70  69  68  67  66  66  65  65  65
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Surface wnd dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.6   6   6   5   5   3   3   2   2   2   3   3
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.6 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  10  9   7   6   6   6   6
LVORI...........2   2   3   3   4   4   4   6   6   6   6   6
ADI.............29  23  7   7   7   5   4   3   3   3   3   3
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100036  23  11  11  11  12  9   7   5   5   6   6
Ceiling (kft)...9.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 1.0

.SATURDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (6100-28300 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......1.0, increasing to 5.0 late in the morning,
                    then decreasing to 3.5 in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Dewpoint............64, increasing to 67 late.
LVORI...............4.
CWR.................85 percent, decreasing to 33 percent through
                    early afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 6
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Min humidity........74 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers. Isolated thunderstorms in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Max apparent temp...73.
Surface winds.......Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 6
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL.
ADI.................14, increasing to 22 late.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Southwest 6 to 10 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........92     91     86     84     83     82
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
CWR.............90     30     30     30     30     30
Temp............65     67     69     72     74     75
Dewpoint........62     63     64     65     66     67
RH..............90     87     84     79     76     76
Heat index (F)..65     67     69     72     74     75
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 3   SE 5   S 5    S 5    S 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5
Surface wind....SE 3   SE 3   SE 5   S 5    S 5    S 6
Surface wnd gst.5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1300   2200   2700   2800   3000
Transport wind..S 6    SE 6   S 7    S 7    S 8    S 9
LVORI...........5      5      4      4      3      3
ADI.............9      10     14     16     19     22
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/10006      7      12     17     20     25
Ceiling (kft)...1.0    1.0    5.0    4.0    4.0    3.5

$$

Forecaster...EVT
Requested by...MassWildlife Prescribed Program Manager
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1713673.2/BOX
.EMAIL art_canterbury@fws.gov


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