Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 281238
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Three Square Hollow West RX...PA DCNR
National Weather Service State College PA
838 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 28.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will push through the eastern half of
Pennsylvania early today, followed by clearing skies and
light west to southwest wind as a ridge of high pressure
drifts overhead. Minimum RH will fall to between 35 and 40
percent this afternoon. Moisture will return from the south
late tonight and Saturday.



.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 4300-4500 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 6...or very low to high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........30  21  16  14  10  13  18  33  42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............60  62  63  65  67  68  69  70  69
RH..............67  60  56  50  45  42  40  39  40
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.1 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   7   8   9   10  10  10
Haines index....3   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers after midnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1800-3200 ft AGL...decreasing to 100-500 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 6...or very low to high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........52  61  66  62  64  66  68  70  71  70  67  66
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............68  67  66  65  64  64  63  63  62  62  61  60
RH..............43  49  52  56  63  65  70  70  75  75  81  84
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   SE  E   SE  S   S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.9   7   6   5   3   3   3   3   3   5   6   7
Haines index....6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers early in the morning...then a chance
                    of showers early in the morning. A chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400...then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2400-4100 ft
                    AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph...increasing to 20 to 28 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon...then
                    decreasing to around 18 mph late.
Haines Index........3 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  67  67  66  63  62  63  65  66  65  63  63
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
Temp............60  59  61  64  66  69  71  72  74  75  76  74
RH..............84  87  81  75  75  70  66  64  59  58  56  59
20 FT wind dir..SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.8   9   12  17  23  28  28  25  23  22  20  18
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/LaCorte
Requested by...Andrew Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707935.0/CTP
.EMAIL adkling@pa.gov



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