Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 151133
FWSCTP

SPOT FORECAST FOR MOSQUITO PARK SAR...PA DNCR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
733 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0723 EDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE.

.DISCUSSION...

A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

SHOWERY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN AND OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
                    IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1000...THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL
                    1300...THEN 16-25 STRIKES.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 17 TO 22 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 7 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
WEATHER COV.........CHC LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RW  RW  RW  RN  RN  RN  RW  RN  RN  RN  RN
TSTM COV............                SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................68  68  68  67  65  67  67  68  68  68  68  67
RH..................90  87  85  89  85  82  81  81  80  80  80  83
20 FT WIND DIR......S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT WIND SPD......12  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   8   9   10  10
20 FT WIND GUST.....25  25  25  20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....21  22  22  17  12  8   9   13  15  14  10  7
LAL.................1   1   1   2   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........OCCASIONAL RAIN...WITH A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 53.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH UNTIL EARLY
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 2200...THEN NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST 1
                    TO 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING EAST
                    AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH 3
                    TO 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT...DECREASING TO AROUND
                    1 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............100 91  84  83  80  78  75  73  61  62  63  64
WEATHER COV.........DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH     ARS ARS ARS
WEATHER TYPE........RN  RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW  RW      FOG FOG FOG
TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP................65  64  62  60  59  58  57  57  56  55  55  55
RH..................85  87  90  95  98  100 100 99  99  98  98  98
20 FT WIND DIR......SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......9   7   6   5   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....15  10  10          10  10  10      5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......1.6 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  NW  N   N   NE  NE  E   S   SW  SW  S   S
TRANSP WIND SPD.....3   2   1   3   7   10  12  12  10  7   3   1
LAL.................5   5   5   4   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................NO TSTMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3300-5000 FT
                    AGL LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 1 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO
                    16 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............65  67  67  68  70  72  73  75  76  77  79  81
WEATHER COV.........ARS ARS ARS                 SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........FOG FOG FOG                 RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............
TEMP................54  54  54  56  58  60  61  62  63  62  62  61
RH..................98  98  95  92  88  85  80  76  73  74  75  76
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD......3   2   2   3   3   5   5   5   6   5   5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5   5   5   5   5           10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.7 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....1   2   5   8   12  15  16  15  14  13  12  10
LAL.................1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

$$
FORECASTER...WFO CTP/LACORTE
REQUESTED BY...BRIAN PLUME
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20141015.MOSQU.01/CTP


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