Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 230919
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for PennCarbose EPA/EMA Hazmat Clean-Up...Somerset County EMA
National Weather Service State College PA
519 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Forecast is based on incident time of 0500 EDT on October 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

A large area of high pressure centered off the New Jersey
coast will bring one last day of spectacular, and warm
Autumn conditions, to enjoy the near peak color of the fall
foliage.

A soaking, moderately heavy rainfall will occur this evening
through early Tuesday across much of the region. A narrow line
of strong thunderstorms with gusty wind could occur immediately
along the front.

A high-amplitude and deepening, cold upper trough will become
located across the eastern U.S. during the Wednesday and
Thursday timeframe. This weather feature will be preceded and
accompanied by rain that could be heavy at times late Monday
into Tuesday. There is also a chance that a narrow band of
gusty thunderstorms will develop and push east across the state
along a cold front during the day Tuesday.

Brisk and colder weather will follow for Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday with the likelihood of the first snowflakes of
the season across the Northern and Western Mountains of
Pennsylvania.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers early in the afternoon. A chance of
                    showers late.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........87 percent.
Surface winds.......Southeast winds 14 to 19 mph.
Mixing height.......600-2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 23 mph, increasing to 28 to 36
                    mph in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........77  79  80  81  84  87  90  92  94  94  96  97
Weather cov.....                                SCH CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  20  30  40  50
Temp............54  55  56  55  55  54  55  56  58  58  59  60
RH..............90  90  90  90  96  100 100 96  93  93  90  87
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.6   6   6   8   9   10  11  13  15  17  17  19
Surface wnd gst.10  10  10  15  20  25  25  30  30  35  35  40
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.18  18  20  20  21  23  28  32  36  36  36  33

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain and a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Surface winds.......Southeast winds 14 to 19 mph, diminishing to 7
                    to 9 mph late in the evening, then becoming
                    southwest 7 to 11 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......900-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 23 to 32 mph, becoming southwest 16
                    to 21 mph late in the evening.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........98  99  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99  100 100
Weather cov.....LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RN  RN  RN  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60  70  100 100 100 100 100 100 40  40  40  30
Temp............60  59  59  58  57  56  56  55  55  54  54  53
RH..............87  87  87  86  90  93  93  93  93  93  93  93
Surface wnd dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SW  SW  SW  SW
Surface wnd spd.19  18  17  18  13  9   8   7   10  11  8   7
Surface wnd gst.40  35  35  40  25  15  15  15  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.32  31  29  26  23  21  18  17  16  17  20  21

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......1900-3500 ft AGL, increasing to 3400-4000 ft
                    AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 22 mph.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 100 89  87  84  81  78  75  74  72  69  67
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............52  51  51  53  53  55  55  56  57  57  58  55
RH..............96  96  96  86  83  77  74  72  67  67  62  69
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
Surface wnd spd.6   7   6   5   7   8   8   9   9   9   8   8
Surface wnd gst.10  15  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.20  18  17  16  15  15  16  17  20  21  22  22

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Joel Landis
Type of request...HAZMAT
.TAG 1717696.0/CTP
.EMAIL landisj@co.somerset.pa.us



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