Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FNUS73 KDTX 181325
FWSDTX

SPOT FORECAST FOR FLINT RIVER...SHIAWASSE NWR USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
925 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON JULY 18.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

WE WILL BE MONITORING THE INLAND EXTENT OF THE LAKE BREEZE FROM
SAGINAW BAY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. IT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE BURN SITE...BUT A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE 3 TO 6 PM TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE STATE WILL ENSURE DRY
CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81.
MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 7900 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENTILATION RATE....EXCELLENT (MAX...700).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
SKY (%).........20  20  21  23  24  26  27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............80  80  80  81  81  81  80
RH..............35  34  33  34  34  35  36
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD..6   6   7   7   7   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  15  15  15  15  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.9 6.7 7.2 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.7
HAINES INDEX....3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRATE (KT-FT)...300 300 400 500 500 600 700

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....54-59.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT
                    OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL OVERNIGHT.
VENTILATION RATE....POOR (MIN...0).

TIME (EDT)      8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   6 AM
SKY (%).........28     33     40     45     45     46
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............79     75     68     61     58     58
RH..............39     45     56     72     82     80
20 FT WIND DIR..SE     SE     SE     SE     SE     E
20 FT WIND SPD..6      6      6      6      5      4
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10                   5
MIX HGT (FT)....7300   5400   3000   1000   200    100
VRATE (KT-FT)...700    500    300    100    0      0

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80.
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...TILLEY
REQUESTED BY...GARY LINDSAY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140718.FLINT.01/DTX






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