Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FNUS73 KGID 031154
FWSGID

SPOT FORECAST FOR KIRWIN NORTH...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
654 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0945 CDT ON MAY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DRY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH ANY
LINGERING SPRINKLES IN THE AREA WELL-SOUTH OF THE BURN SITE BY
IGNITION TIME. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS...DIRECTION IS A LITTLE BIT TRICKY. AT
IGNITION TIME...DIRECTION MAINLY NORTHERLY BUT LIKELY TRENDING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN
THOUGH...SPEEDS RATHER LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A BIT WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 36 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN
6-8 THOUSAND FEET.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
CONTINUED DRY. BREEZES GENERALLY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST 5-10
MPH.

WEDNESDAY:
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT WITH WINDS MORE CONSISTENTLY
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN ROUGHLY 10 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69 NEAR 5 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 36 PERCENT NEAR 5 PM.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THEN GENERALLY
                    BECOMING 5-10 MPH FROM THE NORTH...AND POSSIBLY MORE
                    NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING FROM 300-2200 FT AGL THIS MORNING THEN
                    AROUND 7400-7900 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT/VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THEN BECOMING
                    GENERALLY 5-13 MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH
                    MOST OF THE DAY.

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........44     31     20     31     30
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............52     61     65     67     69
RH..............69     49     41     39     36
20 FT WIND......N 4    N 5    N 5    N 6    NW 6
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      4      3      4      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44 NEAR 7 AM.
MAX HUMIDITY........AROUND 86 PERCENT NEAR 7 AM.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN GRADUALLY
                    DECREASING TO AROUND 300FT AGL LATE.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 13 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........17     17     16     14     12     11
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............67     60     54     51     49     45
RH..............39     51     66     71     74     86
20 FT WIND......NW 5   W 5    W 4    W 5    W 5    NW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      5      4      4

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73 NEAR 5 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 30 PERCENT NEAR 5 PM.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 7 TO 8 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 5000-5700 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 18 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........11     5      3      2      3      3
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............45     54     64     68     72     73
RH..............82     64     45     37     31     31
20 FT WIND......NW 5   N 6    N 6    N 6    N 6    N 5
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     15     15     15     10
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...NWS/PFANNKUCH
REQUESTED BY...ANDY SCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160503.KIRWI.01/GID


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