Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FNUS72 KJAX 120914
FWSJAX

Spot Forecast for DCB3...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
414 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EST on December 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (904) 741-4370, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...WINDY WITH HIGH DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...
...LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ON WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly surface and transport winds will quickly increase
during the mid to late morning hours today and will shift to a
westerly direction this afternoon. Sustained speeds will peak
in the 15-20 mph range during the early to mid afternoon hours,
with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph expected. These strong surface
and transport winds will result in high dispersion values this
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will fall to around
35 percent during the mid-afternoon hours, with low ERC values
precluding Red Flag Conditions. A colder and dry air mass will
then plunge into our region overnight as surface winds become
northwesterly, with speeds remaining in the 5-10 mph range. A
long duration of relative humidity values below critical
thresholds is expected on Wednesday, with minimum values falling
to around 25 percent during the afternoon hours. Northwesterly
winds of 5-10 mph during the morning hours will shift to westerly
during the afternoon, and thus Red Flag Conditions will not occur.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Significant fog formation is not
expected through Thursday morning.

.TODAY...
TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........6   6   7   8   8   7   6   4   3   2   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  42  47  52  57  63  68  71  72  72  71  66
RH..............96  96  90  85  75  65  55  45  40  35  35  40
20 FT wind dir..SW  S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   3   3   5   7   10  13  15  17  17  15  13
20 FT wind gust.    5   6   7   10  17  20  22  25  25  25  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.8 3.3
Transp wind dir.SW  S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   7   10  16  23  28  30  31  29  23
Dispersion idx..1   4   5   10  25  40  55  75  85  90  90  65
LVORI...........9   9   10  9   6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2

.TONIGHT...
TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............58  52  49  46  45  43  42  41  39  38  37  36
RH..............55  63  68  71  70  73  70  70  73  70  70  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..10  8   7   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.16  13  10  7   7   7   8   8   8   8   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.16  10  7   6   6   6   7   7   7   6   6   5
Dispersion idx..45  10  5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
LVORI...........3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...
TIME (EST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............35  35  36  41  47  51  55  57  58  58  57  55
RH..............72  72  67  52  40  30  25  25  25  25  25  30
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.6   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 1.8
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   8   9   9   8   8   9   10  10  9
Dispersion idx..2   5   6   8   15  25  25  30  35  35  35  25
LVORI...........4   4   4   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Nelson
Requested by...Jason DePue
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719855.0/JAX
.EMAIL jason.depue@dep.state.fl.us


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