Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FNUS73 KJKL 151257
FWSJKL

Spot Forecast for Goose RX...KY-DBF-LON
National Weather Service Jackson, KY
757 AM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EST on December 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Good mixing this afternoon will allow for some
wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph at times this afternoon.  Dry
weather will continue through the first half of the weekend.
Temperatures will average below normal today, before returning
to near or above normal for Saturday and Sunday. The next of
light precipitation will occur Sunday into Monday. Rainfall
amounts look to average less than a tenth of an inch or less.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy in the morning, then decreasing
                    clouds in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........29 at ignition...Max 37.
RH..................75 percent at ignition...Min 48 percent.
Dewpoint............21.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds of 5 mph or less through 11 am...then
                    increasing to around 10 mph...with gusts of 15
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds then diminishing
                    to around 5 mph towards dusk.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3000-3400
                    ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 16 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good /35100 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /48100 knot-ft/.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................31 increasing to 50.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 2.

TIME (EST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........95  92  90  80  71  61  57  53  49  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............29  29  31  32  34  35  36  37  37  36
Dewpoint........22  22  22  22  21  20  20  20  20  20
RH..............75  75  69  66  58  54  52  50  50  52
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..4   5   5   7   9   9   10  10   6   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  20  20  15  10
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.0
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.12  14  15  16  16  16  16  15  15  15
LVORI...........3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............31  35  38  40  41  41  40  39  51  48
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate kt-ft/100035  40  44  46  48  48  47  45  43  39

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 26.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Dewpoint............22.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......800-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 18 mph decreasing to 7 to 8 mph
                    late at night.
Vent Rate...........Poor to good (4900-34000 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................7.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........45     37     25     20     16     13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............33     30     28     27     27     27
Dewpoint........21     21     21     22     22     23
RH..............61     69     75     81     81     85
20 ft wind......W 4    SW 2   SW 2   SW 3   SW 3   SW 3
20 ft wind gust.10     5      5      5      5      5
Ridgetop wind...W 5    SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5   SW 5
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   2000   2000   2100   1800   800
Transport wind..W 15   W 17   W 18   W 18   W 14   SW 8
LVORI...........2      3      4      4      4      5
ADI.............10     8      8      8      6      4
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      3
VRate kt-ft/100031     29     32     34     23     6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 52.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Dewpoint............25.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph late
                    at night.
Mixing height.......700-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 15 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor to good (4900-33500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................9 increasing to 23 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 36 late in the morning increasing
                    to 43 in the afternoon decreasing to 34.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........12        7         3         2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Cch of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............26        32        44        52
Dewpoint........24        26        27        26
RH..............92        78        51        36
20 FT wind......SW 2G5    SW 4G10   SW 5G10   SW 5G10
Ridgetop wind...SW 5      SW 5      SW 10     SW 10
Mix hgt (ft)....700       1200      2300      2500
Transport wind..SW 8      SW 13     SW 15     SW 15
LVORI...........6         3         1         1
ADI.............8         20        40        44
Haines index....3         4         4         4
VRate kt-ft/10005         13        29        33

$$
Forecaster...GEOGERIAN
Requested by...leif meadows
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1719929.1/JKL
.EMAIL leifmeadows@fs.fed.us



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