Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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958
FNUS76 KMFR 050222
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOD  96 102...BLM COOS BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
622 PM PST THU FEB 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 PST ON FEBRUARY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN. WINDS DROP OFF RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE FRIDAY EVENING. BY SATURDAY, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A DRYING
TREND WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW...THOUGH ONE MODEL KEEPS SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, WE HAVE INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. BUT, IF THE OFFSHORE FLOW WINS OUT, IT WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN LIKELY RISE WELL INTO THE 60S. EITHER WAY, HIGH
PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW DO WIN OUT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
DRY, MILD WEATHER EXPECTED.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    RAINFALL THROUGH 4 PM PST: 0.05-0.15".
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 3-6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 9 MPH IN THE
                    MORNING, THEN 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 25-35 MPH.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    RAINFALL THROUGH 4 AM PST: 0.25-0.50".
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH 6-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 18 MPH IN THE
                    EARLY EVENING, BECOMING SOUTHWEST 2-5 MPH BY
                    LATE EVENING, THEN BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 25-35 MPH IN THE EARLY EVENING, THEN
                    BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
CWR.................100 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
                    RAINFALL THROUGH 4 PM PST: TRACE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-45 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST OFFSHORE 0-2 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 MPH.
CWR.................2 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SPILDE
REQUESTED BY...JOANIE LAWRENCE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160205.SOD96.01/MFR



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