Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FNUS73 KMKX 201447
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for York Prairie Marbleseed Rx Fire...Wis DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
947 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 CDT on October 20.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Look for increasing southerly breezes late this
morning and early afternoon, with gusts as high as 20 mph across
northern Green county. A mild day lies ahead with high
temperatures peaking in the mid 70s and humidities lowering to 33
to 43 percent.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 77.
RH..................47 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 11 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 100-1800 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2100-2300 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon, then decreasing to 300 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph increasing to 21 to 22 mph
                    late in the afternoon, then decreasing to
                    around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /25600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /37800 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  12  14  15  16
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  74  77  77  75
RH..............47  43  37  37  41
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  10
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.1 2.3 2.1 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  18  22  21  10
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100026  29  38  33  3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Temperature.........Min 57.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......100-400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........18  22  28  34  41  47  53  57  59  61  62  64
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............71  66  64  62  61  60  60  59  58  58  57  57
RH..............46  54  58  62  65  67  64  67  69  72  75  75
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   8   9   10  11  11  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.10  12  13  14  15  15  14  13  14  14  15  17
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10001   1   2   2   3   3   3   2   3   3   4   6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Temperature.........Max 74.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    increasing to 30 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4100 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (7700-56200 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (66800 knot-ft) early in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to or low.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........67  69  66  62  59  55  51  48  46  46  48  53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............57  57  59  61  63  66  69  72  74  74  73  71
RH..............77  77  75  72  70  65  59  55  51  53  55  59
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  11  12  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13
20 FT wind gust.20  20  25  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.22  22  22  22  26  26  29  28  31  31  31  29
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/10008   8   9   16  29  33  50  56  79  86  95  67

$$
Forecaster...MBK
Requested by...Nate Fayram
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717612.0/MKX
.EMAIL Nathan.Fayram@wi.gov


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