Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMLB 180918
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for SP-29B...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
518 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The Atlantic high pressure ridge shifting northward
into central Florida will cause a slightly earlier onset of the east
coast sea breeze. Initiation of thunderstorms along the inland moving
boundary should hold off until west of the burn site. Increasing
surface and transport winds will occur this afternoon, which will
boost dispersion close to the good range.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2800-3800 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 35.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  40  40  45  45  45  42  42  42  29
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2
Temp............79  82  85  88  89  89  90  89  88  88
RH..............88  79  72  66  64  64  62  64  66  66
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  E   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   3   5   6   7   7   8   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.    5                   10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.2 2.2 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.1 2.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   7   7   7   7   8   10  12
Dispersion idx..2   8   17  28  29  30  32  35  35  35
LVORI...........6   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2300, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 77.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......800-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL late
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 14 mph.
Dispersion index....36 decreasing to 6 early in the evening.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 6 after midnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........29     30     30     33     31     31
Weather cov.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............2      2      2      1      1      1
Temp............87     85     83     81     79     78
RH..............68     72     77     82     85     88
20 ft wind......SE 10  SE 9   SE 8   SE 8   SE 7   SE 6
20 ft wind gust.       10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   1700   800    300    300    300
Transport wind..SE 13  SE 14  SE 12  SE 9   SE 8   SE 7
Dispersion idx..36     9      5      4      4      3
LVORI...........3      3      4      5      5      6

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0800, then 1-8 strikes until
                    1100, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph becoming east 5 to
                    9 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 2200-3600 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph increasing to 12 to 15 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....3 increasing to around 40 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........31        59        59        74
Weather cov.....          S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........          S CHC     CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20        40        40        40
LAL.............1         2         3         3
Temp............78        83        88        88
RH..............88        77        66        68
20 FT wind......SE 5      SE 5      E 8G10    E 10
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1400      3500      3000
Transport wind..SE 5      SE 5      E 9       E 14
Dispersion idx..3         5         39        42
LVORI...........6         4         1         1

$$
Forecaster...Lascody
Requested by...Christopher Vandello
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714537.0/MLB
.EMAIL christopher.vandello@dep.state.fl.us



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