Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FNUS73 KPAH 230939
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Handy Unit F...USFS Mark Twain National Forest
National Weather Service Paducah KY
339 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on February 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
The early spring preview will continue for a couple more days
as temperatures remain unseasonably warm. Expect good mixing both
today and Friday as mixing heights peak around 3000 ft today and
above 4000 ft on Friday with strong low level winds both days.

A cold front will bring temperatures back down to more seasonable
levels by the weekend. In the transition, showers and thunderstorms
remain possible Friday afternoon and evening. The best chance of
strong to severe thunderstorms exists from the Wabash River Valley
south into Kentucky`s Pennyrile region and points east from there.

With breezy conditions, minimum relative humidity is forecast to
range from 25 to 35 percent during the afternoon hours both Friday
and Saturday across the Missouri Ozarks. Winds should be somewhat
stronger on Friday, with the lowest relative humidity on Saturday.
This may result in an elevated fire potential both afternoons.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................78 percent at ignition...Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 12 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to
                    2500-3000 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 23 mph
                    late in the morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0
Temp............61     69     73     72
RH..............78     62     51     53
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..6      8      10     12
20 FT wind gust.10     10     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   2500   3000   2900
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.14     20     22     22
Haines index....5      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 58.
RH..................Max 87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 9 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......900-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............69     65     63     61     60     58
RH..............59     68     72     78     81     86
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..10     10     10     10     10     10
20 FT wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   1400   900    900    1000   1100
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.21     18     18     21     20     18
Haines index....4      5      5      5      4      4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 70.
RH..................Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1200-3100 ft AGL increasing to 3800-4700 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 28 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............56     57     62     69     70     66
RH..............90     86     67     47     34     31
20 FT wind dir..S      S      SW     SW     SW     W
20 FT wind spd..10     10     10     10     13     13
20 FT wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1400   2300   3800   4300   4600
Transp wind dir.S      SW     SW     SW     W      W
Transp wind spd.20     20     21     23     26     25
Haines index....4      5      5      5      5      4

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...Christina Barba
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702651.0/PAH
.EMAIL christinajbarba@fs.fed.us



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