Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FNUS72 KRAH 231314
FWSRAH

SPOT FORECAST FOR CACR SANDHILLS 5...STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
914 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON MAY 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST NC COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION TODAY. A MIXTURE OF SUN/CLOUDS EXPECTED
AT BURN SITE TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT (20 PERCENT) OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.

SURFACE BASED INVERSION THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY LIFTED. SURFACE BASED
INVERSION WILL SET UP AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND NOT LIFT UNTIL
THE TEMPERATURE REACHES ABOVE 60 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MIN HUMIDITY........51 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL BY MID AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 10 TO 14 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............68     72     65
WEATHER COV.........       ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................67     69     70
RH..................61     55     51
20 FT WIND..........N 6    N 6    N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........2800   3800   4300
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 14  N 14   N 13
MIX HGT (FT)........2800   3800   4300
TRANSPORT WIND......NW 14  N 14   N 13
LVORI...............1      1      1
ADI.................32     39     39
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10     20     20


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4300 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING WEST AROUND 3 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............58     42     31     24     14     16
WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............ISOLTD
TEMP................70     65     61     59     57     56
RH..................55     65     78     83     90     90
20 FT WIND..........N 5    N 2    NE 1   N 1    SW 2   W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     5                    5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........4300   4300   300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......N 9    N 5    NE 2   N 2    SW 3   W 3
MIX HGT (FT)........4300   4300   300    300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......N 9    N 5    NE 2   N 2    SW 3   W 3
LVORI...............2      3      3      6      7      7
ADI.................27     2      2      1      2      2
CHC OF PCPN (%).....20     10     10     10     10     10


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6
                    MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 5400-5800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 12 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.


TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............20     31     29     30     32     30
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................56     60     69     76     80     82
RH..................90     81     61     46     38     35
20 FT WIND..........W 2    W 2    W 3    W 5    W 5    W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      10     10     10
MIX HGT (FT)........300    900    2300   3700   5100   5800
TRANSPORT WIND......W 3    W 5    W 6    W 8    W 10   W 10
LVORI...............7      3      3      2      1      1
ADI.................2      11     11     27     45     45
CHC OF PCPN (%).....10     0      0      0      10     10

$$
FORECASTER...SHARP
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS CRATE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160523.CACRS.01/RAH


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