Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 261304
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR DIFFICULT CREEK NAP...VA DCR - NH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
904 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

A FRONT WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW JERSEY TO
MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH THEN STALL OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THEN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

BY FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OFF THE COAST AND DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONGER
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6
                    TO 11 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
CWR (0.01 IN).......10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH...INCREASING TO 18 TO 24
                    MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (EDT)          11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............20     19     24     26
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................74     78     82     85
RH..................59     50     43     39
20 FT WIND..........SW 8   SW 9   SW 9   SW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     20     20     20
MIX HGT (FT)........3000   4000   5100   6400
TRANSPORT WIND......W 23   W 23   SW 22  SW 23
CWR.................0      0      10     10

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......20 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 30
                    PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 26 MPH...DECREASING TO 3 TO 12
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............54     53     55     57     70     70
WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
TEMP................83     78     75     72     70     68
RH..................42     50     58     66     72     73
20 FT WIND..........SW 7   SW 4   SW 3   SW 2   S 2    S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........5200   3000   1200   300    300    300
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 25  SW 26  SW 12  SW 3   SW 5   SW 5
CWR.................20     20     30     30     40     40

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL LATE IN
                    THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 13
                    MPH LATE.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............53     52     58     69     73     75
WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............       S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
TEMP................66     67     71     74     77     77
RH..................78     79     76     69     61     58
20 FT WIND..........S 2    W 2    NW 2   N 2    SE 2   SE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........300    300    2000   3400   4500   4100
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 3   W 3    NW 3   W 5    S 8    SW 10
CWR.................30     30     30     40     40     50

$$
FORECASTER...KEIGHTON
REQUESTED BY...WES PAULOS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160426.DIFFI.01/RNK


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