Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FNUS71 KRNK 211342
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Difficult Creek...VADCR
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
842 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A cool start at the prescribed burn site owing to onshore northeast
flow driven by high pressure to our east. Canopy of mid to high cloud
cover also exists over much of the region. For ignition time at noon
today, look for filtered sunshine at best along with winds
becoming light southerly, allowing for low-level moisture levels to
start to rise. Given these conditions, lower RH levels will be
difficult to come by and may only drop as low as 35 percent
during the mid afternoon. Light winds aloft initially will lead to
a smoke plume essentially overhead, though will become oriented more
toward the north this afternoon as mixing layer depth and transport
wind speeds increase to modest levels.

Looking ahead for the rest of the week, today may offer the best
window for additional early prescribed burning. More unsettled
conditions then develop tonight into Wednesday with overcast
skies and increasing chances for showers with a frontal system approaching
from the west. The best chance of rain is later tonight into early
Wednesday, although a significant wetting rainfall does not appear
likely. However relative humidity should be quite a bit higher
on Wednesday with most locations seeing levels remain above 50
to 60 percent.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Becoming southeast around 5 mph late in the
                    morning...then becoming light and variable late.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL...increasing to 3000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southeast 2 to 10 mph...increasing to 7 to 12
                    mph late in the morning.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5...increasing to 23.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60  59  59  58  58  64  65  66  68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............49  52  54  58  61  63  64  63  60
RH..............62  56  47  41  37  35  35  37  41
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   10  10  10      5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 2.1
Mixng wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Mixng wind spd..8   10  12  10  9   9   8   7   7
LVORI...........3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI.............8   14  22  26  27  26  25  24  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late. A chance of showers late.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent...increasing to 30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........South 3 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............5.
ADI.................3.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........70     74     77     81     83     85
Weather cov.....                                   CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      10     10     30
Temp............57     52     50     48     47     46
RH..............48     60     68     75     81     89
20 ft wind......SE 4   SE 3   SE 3   E 2    SE 2   S 2
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   300    300    300    300    300
Mixing wind......SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   S 6    S 5    S 3
LVORI...........2      3      3      3      5      6
ADI.............5      3      3      3      2      2
Haines index....5      5      4      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers until late afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......30 percent...increasing to 40 percent in the
                    morning...then decreasing to 30 percent in the
                    afternoon...decreasing to 10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2400 ft AGL late.
Mixing winds........Southwest 2 to 9 mph.
LVORI...............7.
ADI.................7...increasing to 22 in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........87     90     91     90     88     83
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............30     30     40     30     30     10
Temp............48     48     54     58     60     63
RH..............89     99     86     81     76     71
20 ft wind......S 2    SW 1   SW 2   SW 3   SW 3   S 2
20 ft wind gust.5             5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    300    1500   2200   2400
Mixing wind......S 2    S 2    SW 3   SW 6   SW 8   SW 9
LVORI...........6      10     5      4      3      3
ADI.............2      2      2      11     21     25
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Loconto
Requested by...C. Woodall
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702551.0/RNK


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