Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 042304
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI SEP 04 2015

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE SNOW GLACIER DAM LAKE HAS STOPPED RELEASING. SNOW RIVER HAS
RETURNED TO BASE FLOW. KENAI LAKE AND THE GAGE AT COOPER LANDING
HAVE GONE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE CREST IS MOVING DOWN THE KENAI
RIVER WITH HIGH LEVELS... BUT NO FLOODING EXPECTED.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

TWO UPPER LOWS AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS AT THE
UPPER LEVELS. ONE UPPER LOW IS IN THE BERING SEA... AND THE OTHER IS
OVER NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. THE YUKON TERRITORY LOW ISN`T
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AS IT MOVES EASTWARD AWAY. THE
BERING SEA LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AKPEN OVER THE WEEKEND
AND BE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS MOVING FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TO SOUTHEAST MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE PANHANDLE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

CURRENTLY AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL OVER THE PANHANDLE...
WITH UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. DRYING TREND FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
BUT STILL RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST. AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH. SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OVER THE PANHANDLE CAN REACH
AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
MLRA2    MCNEIL RIVER SGS     PC RM :  1.30
NCKA2    NINILCHIK RAWS       PC RG :  1.11
APXA2    KACHEMAK NERRS MET   PP RG :  1.09
SVRA2    SILVER SALMON LAKES  PC RG :  1.08
PAIL     ILIAMNA              PP RZ :  1.05
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PC RG :  1.00
LMLA2    LOWER MULCHATNA      PC RM :  1.00
PABE     BETHEL               PP RZ :  0.93
PGRA2    PORT GRAHAM SNOTEL   PC RM :  0.90
FAFA2    PFAFF MINE NEAR KING PC RG :  0.90
SDFA2    SOLDOTNA RAWS        PC RG :  0.88
ILRA2    ILIAMNA RIVER        PC RG :  0.85
TLRA2    UPPER TALARIK CREEK  PC RG :  0.84
BTLA2    BOOTH LAKE RAWS      PC RG :  0.84
KNAA2    MYSTERY CREEK        PC RG :  0.82
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :  0.80
BTLA2    BOOTH LAKE RAWS      PP RG :  0.78
PAEN     KENAI                PP RZ :  0.76
CKLA2    CAPE KIAVAK RAWS     PC RG :  0.73
ALSA2    PORT ALSWORTH RAWS   PC RG :  0.72
SWNA2    SWANSON RIVER RAWS   PC RG :  0.71
SKLA2    KENAI RIVER SKILAK   PC RG :  0.71
PANW     NEW STUYAHOK         PP RZ :  0.70
KSNA2    KING SALMON 42 SE    PP RG :  0.70
KMPA2    KENAI MOOSE REFUGE   PC RM :  0.70
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC RM :  0.70
SNOA2    SNOW RIVER NR SEWARD PC RG :  0.67
SIXA2    SIXMILE CREEK        PC RG :  0.67
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :  0.65
SGSA2    SKILAK GUARD STATION PC RG :  0.62
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER   PC RG :  0.62
PWHA2    PORT ALSWORTH CRN    PP RG :  0.62
HKBA2    HOMER KBRR           PP RZ :  0.62
CGMA2    CHIGMIT MOUNTAINS    PC RG :  0.61
KNMA2    KENAI 29 ENE         PP RG :  0.60
GCRA2    GROUSE CREEK DIVIDE  PC RM :  0.60
SRVA2    STONY RIVER RAWS     PC RG :  0.59
BLCA2    BLACK CAPE RAWS      PP RG :  0.59
NINA2    NINILCHIK RIVER      PP RV :  0.56
COVA2    COVILLE RAWS         PC RG :  0.56
RDRA2    REINDEER RIVER RAWS  PP RG :  0.52
RBTA2    RABBIT CREEK RAWS    PC RG :  0.51
PAHO     HOMER                PP RZ :  0.51

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST MAINLAND.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND AND THE
PANHANDLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

KFM


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