Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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000
FZAK80 PAFC 092210
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
110 PM AKST FRIDAY 9 DECEMBER 2016

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 14 DECEMBER 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THE MOST IMPACTFUL
FRONT WILL BE ONE THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI
SEA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY STALL OUT OVER THOSE
LOCATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-

ICE COVERED.

-CHUKCHI SEA-
-BERING SEA-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ500-WESTERN U.S. ARCTIC OFFSHORE-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE CHUKCHI SEA EXTENDS FROM 66.5N 169.0W TO
67.8N 167.9W TO 69.6N 168.9W TO 70.9N 165.7W TO 72.8N 164.7W TO
73.2N 171.2W TO 72.6N 173.4W TO 69.4N 173.4W TO 67.7N 169.2W TO
67.4N 170.4W TO 66.5N 169.0W. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA...LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHUKCHI WHICH WILL HELP THE AREAS OF
OPEN WATER TO BEGIN TO RE-FREEZE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM -1 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY BREAK UP SOME OF THE NEW ICE AND CONTINUE
THE TREND OF KEEPING THE CHUKCHI SEA OPEN IN SOME AREAS. THE MAIN
ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH 5 TO 15 MILES THROUGH SUNDAY AND
THEN LIKELY CONDENSE BACK TO THE NORTH 10 TO 20 NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM 57.3N 158.4W TO
58.1N 158.2W TO 57.8N 160.6W TO 59.1N 167.7W 61.1N 169.4W TO 63.1N
168.1W TO 64.9N 168.1W TO 65.6N 169.1W TO 64.1N 172.1W AND CONTINUES
ALONG THE RUSSIAN COAST. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER. THERE IS
ALSO NEW SEA ICE ALONG THE COAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. SOME PIECES OF ICE ALONG
THE COAST COULD STILL GET RIPPED OFF AND LEAVE A FEW AREAS OF OPEN
WATER WHICH WILL LIKELY RE-FREEZE RAPIDLY AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRIMED FOR ICE GROWN ALONG THE COAST. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARDS...A POTENT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA AND BRING STRONG WINDS AND A PUSH OF WARMER AIR WHICH WILL
LIKELY BREAK UP SOME OF THE NEW ICE WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AND
COMPACT THE ICE EDGE NORTHWARD. WE EXPECT THE ICE EDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST TO EXPAND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 NM THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AND THEN COMPACT TO THE NORTH 10 TO 15 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

-COOK INLET-
PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND COOK INLET.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE EXTENDS FROM 60.4N 151.4W TO 60.7N 151.6W TO
61.0N 151.1W. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SEA ICE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FORMING IN UPPER COOK INLET THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DAYTIME
HIGHS REMAIN WELL BELOWWTO WTO  REEZING. EXPECT SEA ICE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE IN THICKNESS AND CONCENTRATION AND EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 NM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE NOTE...COOK INLET ICE CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIDES.

$$



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