Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 091803
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 13 2016 - 12Z WED FEB 17 2016

GUIDANCE AND UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS DERIVED FROM THE
REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUIDANCE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN EARLY ON,
06Z GFS EARLY ON, 12Z GFS, AND 00Z ECMWF, TRANSITIONING EMPHASIS
TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
COORDINATION WITH THE ANCHORAGE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LED TO THE
INCLUSION OF THE 12Z GFS INTO THE FORECAST.  OVERALL...MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES OFFER BELOW NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD AND ALOFT WITH THE
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION.

PATTERN AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
WITH RIDGING ACROSS INTERIOR AK, LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED
TO INHABIT THE BERING SEA TO ITS WEST WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS, NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA, THEN INTO THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AK AND THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE STATE: SOUTHEAST
AK SEES HEAVY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH THE
KENAI PENINSULA REMAINING QUITE WET THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SOMEWHAT MILD FOR MID-FEBRUARY AS THE ARCTIC
HIGH CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF AK BYPASSES THE STATE TO THE EAST,
SLIPPING THROUGH CANADA AND THEN SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN LOWER 48.  ABOVE FREEZING READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTH, 20S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AK, AND BELOW ZERO
READINGS NEAR THE NORTH SLOPE.

ROTH
$$




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