Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 101855
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM FEBRUARY 10/12 UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN USA SUSTAINS THE SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
GULF/NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PULL LATER ON
FRIDAY. THIS...HOWEVER...WILL BE SHORT LASTING... WITH INFLOW OF
ENERGY DURING THE WEEKEND TO ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH PATTERN. AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT THAT
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN HONDURAS. BROAD POLAR RIDGE OVER THE
GULF FAVORS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG NORTHERLIES
ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FLOW
CONVERGES ALONG A SHEAR LINE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI TO COSTA
RICA...WHILE AN INDUCED/PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO JAMAICA. THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE ARE TO
MEANDER NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT AS THE
UPPER PATTERN EVOLVES...THE FRONT IS TO RETROGRESS INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN... WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
BAHAMAS-CUBA EARLY DURING THE WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE...OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS-EASTERN CUBA THE MEANDERING
FRONT WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. THROUGH FRIDAY IT IS TO INCREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR
LINE WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...FRONTAL NORTHERLIES OF 15-25KT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ON FRIDAY THIS
INCREASES TO 15-20MM AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AS THE SURFACE FRONT
RETROGRESSES AND DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS.
ON THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL PLAINS OF COSTA RICA AND BOCAS DEL TORO
IN WESTERN PANAMA THE SHEAR LINE WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG LOW
LEVEL WINDS OF 20-35KT TO SUSTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY THIS DECREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE ON FRIDAY EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM AS THE SHEAR LINE WEAKENS.

THE SURGING NORTHERLIES ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA RICA ARE TO INITIALLY
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION ALONG THE ANDEAN REGION OF
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN COASTAL PLAINS...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. BUT AS STRONG WINDS
PERSIST...EXPECTING UPWELLING OF COLDER WATERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO GENERALLY FAVOR A DRYING TREND AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES. ON THE CAUCA VALLEY TO THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY TO FRIDAY IT DECREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CONTINENTAL TROUGH...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC. AT 500 HPA
THE RIDGE IS TO ANCHOR ON A CLOSED HIGH NEAR 30N 45W DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER
THIS AXIS. AN ELONGATED TUTT BOUNDS THE EASTERN-SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF THIS RIDGE...WITH AXIS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN
AFRICA...ALONG 25N 35W TO JUST NORTH OF THE GUIANAS. THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING A LOW IS FORECAST TO CLOSE ALONG THIS AXIS JUST
NORTH OF THE GUIANAS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
THE CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS ALONG THE COAST TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLES/ORINOCO DELTA REGION LATER ON FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE TUTT LOW APPEARS WELL ORGANIZED...IT IS TO HAVE
LIMITED IMPACT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUIANAS...WHERE PERSISTENT
TRADE WINDS CAP IS TO INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. MOST
ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS FRENCH GUIANA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE
IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. ON THURSDAY IT INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. OVER NORTHERN SURINAME-GUYANA...THE MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM. OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE EQUATORIAL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS TO SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON THURSDAY.

AT LOW LEVELS...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN
ATLANTIC REFLECTS AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE. THIS IS TO SUSTAIN
BRISK EASTERLY TRADES INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE GENERATION
OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS. IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LEEWARD-VIRGIN ISLES
TO PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A PERTURBATION IN THE
EASTERLY TRADES STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96         TYPE
NONE

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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