Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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084
FXHW01 KWNH 081227
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 AM EST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 00Z TUE FEB 09 2016 - 00Z TUE FEB 16 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARED THE BIG ISLAND AS SUPPORTED WITH
PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. EXPECT A MAINLY DRY AND LIGHT HAWAIIAN FLOW PATTERN THIS
WEEK, WITH SUBSEQUENT IMPULSE/FRONTAL SURGES STRUGGLING MORE TO
APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MID-LATE WEEK. THE A COMPOSITE
OF STILL QUITE COMPATABLE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS
PREFERRED OVERALL IN A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
PREDICTABILITY. IN THIS SCENARIO, RENEWED FLOW AMPLIFICATION MAY
VANGUARD ANOTHER ORGANIZED FRONTAL PUSH INTO THE STATE TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS AROUND VALENTINE`S DAY.

SCHICHTEL

$$





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