Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 251157
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

VALID 00Z MON SEP 26 2016 - 00Z MON OCT 03 2016

CENTRAL PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PROMOTE FAIRLY STEADY TRADES AT MODERATE TO
BRISK STRENGTH FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.  SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR
WINDWARD LOCATIONS BUT A LITTLE ACTIVITY MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH
OTHER AREAS AS WELL.  FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK GFS/ECMWF RUNS
INDICATE THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD VARY BETWEEN 1-1.50
INCHES.  THE MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEKEND WITH PWATS POSSIBLY REACHING AT
LEAST 1.75 INCHES.  SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK UPPER
CIRCULATION MAY EVOLVE TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE BY
THAT TIME, HELPING TO PULL UP MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER LATITUDES.
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS IS MODEST DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SMALL
SCALE AND WEAK NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL FEATURE.

RAUSCH

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