Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 260628
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EDT WED APR 26 2017

VALID APR 26/0000 UTC THRU APR 29/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


SYSTEM APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA SATURDAY MORNING
SYSTEM OVER ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
STRONG UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FRI NIGHT
CYCLONE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  A
COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE -- SIMILAR TO THE PARALLEL
VERSION OF THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS -- IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, SOUTHEAST
CANADA, TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z ECMWF EVENTUALLY OUTPACES THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  SINCE ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS
SLOWER, PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS, 00Z NAM, 00Z CANADIAN,
AND 00Z UKMET WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... /ALL LOWER CASE/

ROTH
$$




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