Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
623
FXUS06 KWBC 271913
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 27 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 06 2016

TODAY`S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF THE CONUS AND NEAR THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL CONUS
DOMINATES MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. A RIDGE IS GENERALLY FORECAST
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA ALTHOUGH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE LESS
COHERENT WITH THIS FEATURE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A ZONAL JET STREAM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND IN BASICALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES, AND TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT IN THE FAST
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS
INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. TODAY`S 500-HPA
BLENDED HEIGHT FIELD INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CONUS
AND ALASKA EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST U.S. WHERE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT
THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN LOWER 48
STATES. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALSO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE,
AND THE ALEUTIANS. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST TILTING THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LEADING TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. ANOMALOUS
NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ENHANCED
MONSOONAL FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ENHANCING
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE ALEUTIANS, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. TROUGHING
NORTH OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN
ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8,
AND 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND THE TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 10 2016

THE WEEK-2 500-HPA ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LONG WAVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A SLOW RETROGRESSION COMPARED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE LEAST RETROGRESSION
AND ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THEIR 6-10 DAY FORECASTS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI
CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE CONUS, ALTHOUGH
SPREAD BECOMES MODERATE TO LARGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. TODAY`S BLENDED
HEIGHT CHART INDICATES SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CONUS AND ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE LOWER 48 STATES,
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND THE CONUS EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS.

THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED
MONSOONAL FLOW FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST.
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WEST
COAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO WASHINGTON STATE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR AIR MASSES OF PACIFIC ORIGIN FAVOR NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE A DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION. ENHANCED MONSOONAL FLOW FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TILTS THE
ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. TROUGHING NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TILTS THE ODDS TO
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THAT REGION.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF
YESTERDAY`S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS, OFFSET BY SMALL MAGNITUDE HEIGHT ANOMALIES.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
AUGUST 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960808 - 19590806 - 20060715 - 19810803 - 19590723


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19960809 - 19810803 - 20060716 - 19590806 - 19980809


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 02 - 06 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   N    B
SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    B     E MONTANA   N    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     B    B     COLORADO    N    B
NEW MEXICO  N    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    B     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR AUG 04 - 10 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    B
INDIANA     A    B     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    B
VERMONT     N    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       N    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    B     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    A    B     DELAWARE    A    B     VIRGINIA    A    B
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    B     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.