Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS06 KWBC 262002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 26 2015

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2015

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN
FORECAST OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA, THE SOUTHWEST CONUS, AND THE GULF OF ALASKA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. RECENT CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND LESS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THESE
FORECASTS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS ARE BASICALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS ALTHOUGH THE HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS DEPICT A
CLOSED-OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHEREAS THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT AN OPEN
TROUGH OVER THIS REGION.

THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ESPECIALLY
IN REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE PNA
INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO BY DAY 7,
BE POSITIVE BY DAY 10, AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH
RECENTLY HAS BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO BY DAY 7, BE POSITIVE BY
DAY 10, AND REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAY`S BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT
CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS, SOUTHEAST ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.

THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE AND AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE
WESTERN CONUS ENHANCE THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WESTERN U.S. AND WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE.

THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. CYCLONIC
FLOW AND ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. ANOMALOUS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE TROUGH
FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ALASKA.

TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10%
OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7, 15% OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND
10% OF YESTERDAY`S OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7


MODEL OF THE DAY: 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE (TIED).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AND A PERSISTENT, HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2015

DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGHS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS.
THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS A BIT SLOWER TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE HIGH RESOLUTION GFS FORECASTS SHOW POOR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY AND WERE DISCOUNTED. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RELATIVELY LOW SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE
SPREAD OVER THE WEST.

TODAY`S WEEK 2 BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE
EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AND ALL BUT FAR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS,
WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE WESTERN THREE
QUARTERS OF THE CONUS.

THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURE ANOMALY PATTERNS FOR WEEK 2 ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE
EXPECTED DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, THE AREA OF EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHRINKS A BIT AS THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPANDS
EASTWARD.

AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS THE AREA OF EXPECTED BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION EXPANDS TO THE EAST. A DRIER PATTERN IS ALSO ANTICIPATED FOR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING WEEK 2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 20% OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY`S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF YESTERDAY`S 12Z EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, AND A PERSISTENT, RELATIVELY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620131 - 19540207 - 19760119 - 19540201 - 19930128


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620130 - 19760119 - 19840205 - 19540206 - 19840131


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 05 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    B     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    B
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    B
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    N     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    N     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    N    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 03 - 09 2015

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     B    N     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   B    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    B
VERMONT     B    B     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    B     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    N     VIRGINIA    B    N
N CAROLINA  B    N     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    N
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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