Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 260752
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2017

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 26 2017 - 12Z THU SEP 28 2017

...AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
WITH HURRICANE MARIA NEAR THE EAST COAST...

WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
U.S., BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK FOR MUCH OF THIS REGION BEFORE A MODERATING TREND
COMMENCES LATER IN THE WEEK.  WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALONG
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS, THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
ROCKIES HAS DECREASED.

THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR A
COUPLE MORE DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
A STRONG, SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT WILL SPAN FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TO TEXAS, AND FINALLY MAKING IT TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER.  HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN TEXAS, WHERE DEEP MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM FORMER TROPICAL STORM PILAR IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION, ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA REPEATEDLY.

HURRICANE MARIA IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR PARTS OF THE EAST COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THIS STORM WILL TRACK ABOUT 100-200 MILES EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA`S
OUTER BANKS BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY.  IT WILL BE THE
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT CAUSES THE EASTWARD TURN FOR
THE HURRICANE LATER IN THE WEEK.  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS THE LATEST INFORMATION AND FORECAST TRACK REGARDING THIS
HURRICANE.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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