Preliminary Forecasts
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS02 KWNH 250521
PREEPD

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1220 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VALID 12Z FRI NOV 28 2014 - 12Z TUE DEC 02 2014


...CHANCES INCREASING FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA...

RELIED ON THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE MOST RECENT GEFS AND ECENS
MEANS AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS ENOUGH
SPREAD/VOLATILITY AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO PRECLUDE THE
INCORPORATION OF ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IN THE MANUAL BLEND. WHAT
CAN BE GLEANED FROM THE OPERATIONAL MODELS IS THE DISTRIBUTION AND
UPPER THRESHOLD FOR THE PROLIFIC PRECIPITATION EVENT SETTING UP
FOR CALIFORNIA. BOTH THE 12Z/24 ECMWF AND THE 00Z/25 PARALLEL GFS
INDICATE 2-4" OF RAINFALL ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM SAN
FRANCISCO TO SAN DIEGO DURING THE 5-DAY PERIOD ENDING 00Z/03, WITH
6-12" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
RANGE. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY THE LOWER DESERTS IN THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WOULD BE IN THE RAIN SHADOW. BEYOND CALIFORNIA, THE
LATE PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS A WET PERIOD IN GENERAL ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH SNOWS PILING UP IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND RAIN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE EASTERN STATES LOOK
SHARPLY MILDER AND ON THE DRY SIDE AS A BROAD RIDGE REPLACES THE
RECENT TROUGHING.


CISCO

$$




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