Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FXUS04 KWBC 252144
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
543 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 26/0000 UTC THRU OCT 29/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

18Z UDPATE...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO PRELIM GUIDANCE BASED ON
SATL/RADAR TRENDS.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE
NORTHWEST U.S. WILL PUSH ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL FAVOR
INCREASING COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED
RAIN ALONG THE WA/OR/NRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND INTO THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN SIERRA-NEVADA. AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES FOR THE HIGHER AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WINDWARD
SLOPES. THIS INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM
SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH AT LEAST SOME MODERATE
RAIN AND LOCALLY HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR THE
BITTERROOTS...SAWTOOTH AND INTO THE TETONS. WPC QPF LEANED TOWARD
A CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF...WITH AMOUNTS TWEAKED
LOCALLY FOR TOPOGRAPHY AND REFLECTING THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.


...NORTH DAKOTA...

AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST
MODELS SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT RAINS DEVELOPING WITH THIS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.


...NORTHEAST...

A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD.
DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS SERIOUSLY LACKING AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...AND WHILE SOMEWHAT ROBUST...THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK
WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER OFF THE EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO NEAR THE TUG HILL PLATEAU WITH THE LOW LEVEL FETCH DOWN
THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE FAVORING SOMEWHAT BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...BUT AMOUNTS OTHERWISE SHOULD TEND TO BE LIGHT AND
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...SOME VERY MODEST LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WHICH WILL EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS.


DAYS 2-3...

PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE ROCKIES...

ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY WHICH THEN
PROGRESSES INLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH IT REMAINING WET OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUT LESS WIDESPREAD INLAND TOWARD THE
ROCKIES AS MOISTURE DECREASES.

MODEL DETAILS CONTINUE TO VARY DUE TO SLIGHT TIMING/STRENGTH
DIFFERENCES OF THE DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN...WITH A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF PREFERRED TO ADDRESS THE LINGERING SPREAD.  BY
MONDAY THOUGH...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLN FOR THE
SECONDARY SURGE IN RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ANA...AS THIS SOLUTION WAS A CLOSE FIT TO THE LATEST CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST TRACK.

MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

CONTINUED TO FAVOR AN ECMWF/UKMET SOLN...WITH PERHAPS MORE
WEIGHTING GIVEN TO THE ECMWF.  THE ECMWF REMAINED AN INTERMEDIATE
SOLUTION INVOLVING THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PRESENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY.  THE NAM REMAINED A SLOW
OUTLIER IN THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...WHILE THE GFS WAS ON THE FAST
SIDE.  THUS THE WPC FORECASTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON DAY 2 WHICH INCREASES SLIGHTLY AS
THE SYSTEMS BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ON DAY 3 FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY.

NORTHEAST...

ONLY LIGHT PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE LINGERING IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST ON DAY 2 /MONDAY/ IN THE WAKE OF A CLOSED LOW
WHICH SHOULD BE HEADING OUT TO SEA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN BOTH MASS FIELDS AND PCPN...A
GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISED WORKED WELL FOR WPC MANUAL QPF.

ORRISON/SULLIVAN/BANN

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

24HR QP VT 27/00Z
 0.01 538205 539197 539190 537178 535171 532165 528156 522149
      516151 508148 502142 497141 493137 487130 481128 478127
      472126 469126 468122 467118 468112 469109 467104 462102
      460096 460094 463087 464074 463068 461064 457061 454056
      451051 449054 446057 444062 443072 448080 449083 448087
      445091 436093 432093 429090 424089 426094 427098 428101
      425103 422104 420107 415108 412105 410098 407098 406104
      404109 414140 414151 413158 415164 416168 416172 412178
      411191 407201 403203 397202 391200 386196 380191 376191
      373195 374200 377203 384209 391215 395217 398220 399223
      397225 392225 387225 382222 370219 373225 381231 398242
      404245 408248 415256 418259 422260 427262 431262 441264
      450265 460265 468266 474268 480271 483276 488280 490282
      493285 495288 501291 508288 510283 510278 510270 506267
      504263 505258 509254 511259 515264 517266 520267 522264
      522258 523251 522246 522238 524231 529223 538205
 0.01 517687 516678 513670 509663 505661 501661 489662 483662
      480657 476650 472645 467639 461634 457632 451632 444633
      436635 430639 426645 427651 429655 435660 440662 443663
      443667 441673 440677 440682 442688 438694 435701 433710
      426722 422735 420744 419747 417749 412755 408763 407780
      405787 400790 388796 382800 377807 373812 368816 363820
      361825 363827 366827 370823 376817 382813 386808 392804
      396801 400795 431790 435787 437778 437770 440767 443767
      453759 455755 458753 461744 463738 464733 466731 477733
      488738 494741 499735 501728 504722 512710 514705 516698
      517687
 0.01 527010 528002 528994 525984 522972 524967 523962 520951
      517947 514946 509946 504946 497950 490955 484959 482964
      481973 481980 480984 477995 476009 479019 482022 486025
      501032 514023 519023 522020 526013 527010
 0.01 484191 480185 476179 472177 469177 467182 465185 459189
      455194 455199 456202 459202 462203 466205 468203 472198
      475199 477198 482194 484191
 0.01 417076 416072 417067 414063 412061 410065 407065 405064
      402066 400069 398072 394072 389077 389082 391085 394087
      398087 401087 405087 409087 411083 415077 417076
 0.25 531192 531187 529183 525177 521167 519164 515162 509159
      504154 494143 489137 482133 477134 475136 477139 481142
      483148 481151 477151 473150 468144 459143 454147 451148
      449148 441142 439141 436142 434146 433152 433157 435160
      440164 443167 445170 449177 450183 451187 456187 459185
      463180 462177 458177 455173 455169 456165 458161 463161
      469167 474167 477170 483178 487183 490185 491191 492199
      485201 473204 466209 461208 458209 453212 447214 440214
      433215 429215 426216 422218 421221 423229 415231 411232
      409234 405238 405241 409243 416247 425250 431250 441251
      449251 462250 475250 484251 491255 498255 503249 509248
      511245 512241 511233 508225 505216 501210 495204 493199
      497198 503203 507205 510207 513210 517210 520208 523204
      527199 530195 531192
 0.25 486691 485680 481672 476667 470665 465670 463678 460687
      459694 458699 456703 450707 443712 441714 441718 442721
      440726 439730 441734 444736 447736 452733 457726 461721
      468716 475713 479712 482709 484702 486691
 0.25 501985 502980 502975 500971 499970 496967 494967 492967
      490970 489975 489977 489980 490984 492987 495987 497988
      500988 501985
 0.25 473229 473228 472227 470228 471229 473229 473229
 0.25 452230 452229 451229 450229 450231 452230 452230
 0.25 449232 449231 447231 448232 449232
 0.25 455118 457113 457108 455105 455101 452096 448095 446097
      443098 439098 436100 432106 430113 428115 431117 436116
      440116 442118 446121 451120 455118
 0.25 436758 436756 435754 434754 433753 431754 430757 430759
      431761 432764 433765 434763 435761 436760 436758
 0.25 419216 416211 413209 411214 408215 404210 400210 395206
      393207 393210 395213 398215 403219 405223 409225 414223
      418218 419216
 0.50 521197 522192 522187 521183 516171 513168 508166 502164
      496162 490160 485160 479160 478161 477164 483173 488177
      491178 496182 499187 501193 504196 514202 519201 521197
 0.50 509243 509237 507232 505228 503221 500214 497209 493208
      490205 485204 477206 470209 463212 447217 439217 431219
      429223 431228 435231 440231 454226 457227 459230 452233
      437235 432237 429236 418235 413235 412239 416244 425246
      435246 444247 451246 469245 477245 480243 481237 479232
      475231 471232 465229 469225 474221 479223 482226 484230
      487235 491235 493236 500242 506245 509243
 0.50 461180 461178 460178 459179 457180 459182 460181 461180
 0.50 454162 454159 454156 453156 451155 450154 448154 446154
      445154 443154 442156 442159 444161 445162 447164 447165
      448166 450168 452167 452166 453164 454162 454162
 0.50 447111 447109 446107 445106 444105 442104 441104 439105
      438105 438107 438110 440111 442111 443112 445113 447112
      447111
 0.50 414219 414217 414215 412215 411216 410217 408218 408219
      407220 408221 409223 411222 412221 413220 414219
 1.00 499232 498224 497218 495215 492212 488210 484208 481208
      476210 472214 473217 476218 483220 487225 493228 498232
      499232
 1.00 475240 477238 476235 474235 473236 473239 474239 475240
      475240
 1.00 464221 464220 463218 461218 459218 457219 456219 455220
      455221 457223 458224 460225 462224 463223 464223 464221
 1.00 460238 458235 455234 452235 450236 447236 444237 442238
      442241 445241 448241 451241 454241 456240 459240 460238
 1.00 448224 449222 448221 447220 445220 443220 441222 443224
      444224 446225 448224 448224
 1.00 427242 426241 424240 423239 421238 419238 417238 416239
      417240 419241 420242 422242 424243 426242 427242
 1.50 492219 491219 490218 490216 489215 487214 486212 484211
      482211 481211 479212 477212 477213 478215 480216 482217
      483218 485218 486219 488220 490219 491220 492219

24HR QP VT 28/00Z
 0.01 531149 532140 531131 530122 527116 521104 518101 517098
      520096 521091 521083 520075 518057 517046 514038 511033
      507029 504024 500021 490015 486012 484012 478014 473026
      464050 466055 467060 466062 464060 461053 460052 458057
      457062 459068 461072 461076 465075 468078 468084 469091
      468097 470100 471105 468107 468111 469113 472111 476111
      480117 484122 481122 476124 474127 470125 463131 457130
      452133 450135 449140 446143 443144 438146 436148 435153
      437158 441163 446166 448168 449172 454185 457185 460183
      462183 465179 464173 467173 470175 472176 474175 476172
      479170 486172 491168 493167 494170 496173 498175 501181
      505185 510190 515190 518187 519180 520172 521163 525158
      529154 531149
 0.01 513279 515268 515261 514255 511250 511243 511238 508234
      505231 503228 500223 500217 495208 493204 489203 460214
      445216 436218 429221 425222 423225 424229 428231 439234
      440237 438237 433239 429245 426247 424248 424251 423260
      423265 424268 427266 429264 431257 433251 436252 441254
      441259 435268 432276 431282 432288 438296 445302 451304
      459303 468302 474304 477303 485306 489306 494307 498307
      501303 506295 511289 513279
 0.01 521881 520866 518862 514860 493858 490857 489853 490848
      489846 488838 485833 478824 474821 471818 465812 459805
      455801 451799 442795 436796 432797 430799 424806 421812
      421818 423820 422824 419827 418830 419836 421841 427850
      432857 433860 430861 425862 421866 420873 417879 414884
      409894 407900 404906 401914 398919 397926 398929 401930
      404926 410919 417910 424898 425895 427897 431901 437911
      440921 441925 440928 438933 426950 423956 422963 419975
      416990 414997 412000 410998 403002 399005 397009 393020
      390020 388026 387032 387040 386044 384046 380050 377053
      381056 385056 388059 389061 388063 386061 383062 382067
      380073 379078 381080 381084 383086 387087 397086 403084
      406082 409077 409073 411066 409063 406061 407056 408051
      406049 405045 407040 408037 410036 414034 416028 420022
      423018 423013 421007 424002 429994 434981 438969 440964
      441957 439950 440945 447935 454929 476932 480935 484940
      490952 495957 503963 507963 509961 509954 509944 507939
      503928 504924 507922 512920 515917 518912 520904 519894
      519892 519887 521881
 0.01 484235 483232 481229 480226 477224 474222 471222 469225
      467227 465229 466233 469233 471233 474232 478234 481235
      484235
 0.01 479691 478686 475682 470681 466682 463685 460688 456692
      454695 451699 447699 445699 447705 442711 439716 440723
      439727 437728 432728 429730 430733 440733 440738 439743
      434751 433754 436757 439756 450741 459721 469706 473703
      475698 479694 479691
 0.01 471676 470672 467673 465672 461672 459671 457669 455667
      453668 453673 456675 458676 460677 464677 467676 469677
      471676
 0.01 458106 459094 457085 454075 452071 448068 446061 450053
      453049 453044 451034 454015 450009 446010 444014 441023
      436030 434034 434041 434046 437050 440055 443058 445060
      444062 441066 440070 442079 442084 441091 438094 434094
      428087 426091 429099 424103 419110 416114 414114 414111
      411105 409102 405104 399109 396112 395117 408120 411122
      414120 428116 436113 443114 448116 452116 455115 458106
 0.25 506284 507278 506273 502263 497257 487252 485254 486259
      489269 494277 491277 485274 481273 477274 470279 464283
      460283 454282 448285 445289 446291 449293 453295 458295
      467295 483295 491295 499293 503290 506284
 0.25 506117 507112 506108 504101 502094 499089 493088 489091
      490097 492104 493112 497117 502119 506117
 0.25 481247 480244 480243 478242 477240 475238 474239 473240
      471241 471244 473244 474245 476245 477246 479247 481247
      481247
 0.25 484138 484137 482136 481136 479136 477135 476136 474136
      472138 473141 475142 477142 478142 480141 482141 483140
      484140 484138
 0.25 474159 474156 472153 472152 471150 469148 468148 466148
      464148 463149 462149 462151 462153 462156 463157 464159
      465159 466160 468161 469162 471162 473161 474159
 0.25 461240 460238 458238 456237 455238 454238 454240 454241
      456242 457242 458242 459241 461240
 0.25 461905 459898 457891 453887 447884 442887 441891 441894
      443901 446906 450911 454913 458913 461905
 0.25 455847 456845 455842 454840 453840 452839 451840 450840
      450843 451845 452848 453848 454848 455847
 0.25 444106 442104 442103 441103 439103 440105 440106 442106
      444106 444106
 0.25 403074 403072 403071 401070 399070 398070 396071 395073
      394075 395077 396078 397079 399079 400078 401077 402076
      403074 403074


24HR QP VT 29/00Z
 0.01 536215 537207 537200 536192 534186 533178 530172 526166
      521164 507149 500141 492139 489138 487136 482135 479132
      471125 467132 463136 453139 451142 447143 443146 441153
      441169 442176 442186 440192 437195 434198 432200 431204
      427221 424230 421235 416244 411254 409262 411269 418276
      422275 425273 427277 425285 426292 427297 429299 433301
      437299 441296 448290 457287 462285 468285 480285 488284
      492284 496287 503290 508288 512284 515277 518264 520259
      521254 522249 520241 519235 528229 532222 536215
 0.01 536920 524874 525865 525859 523840 521818 518800 516794
      516788 510777 506766 502761 500755 497750 492747 487745
      482743 473740 469739 465744 462745 459749 455752 453753
      452750 447739 442740 438742 436747 436756 434763 432767
      430769 426771 421775 416778 412784 388814 374830 370835
      366840 363845 360851 352868 348877 343888 331911 326921
      324926 322932 321943 322948 324949 324953 323958 328958
      340959 347958 354957 353963 355971 358974 364974 368972
      372967 378961 384954 388952 391947 399941 409936 421931
      432926 438926 443930 448928 451926 454925 455923 457925
      460928 462932 464936 462941 459945 449967 445971 447976
      457986 458988 460995 464005 466020 471029 476040 487045
      490046 493049 494056 498060 501060 503058 505055 507050
      507041 507037 509035 510999 511993 512990 517986 520981
      525976 530947 536920
 0.01 453105 451104 449104 448104 447104 449105 451107 453105
      453105
 0.01 381033 381026 382020 382013 381008 379006 377010 375015
      375021 374028 375033 376038 380035 381033
 0.01 265800 263798 261798 259799 259801 261801 263801 265800
      265800
 0.01 254830 252824 249820 248812 248804 246802 242805 240811
      239817 239823 243827 247830 253831 254830
 0.25 527204 527196 524190 521185 516180 513176 510174 508175
      508182 510189 513195 516200 520206 523207 525206 527204
 0.25 511271 513262 515251 514242 511235 506224 498211 491201
      487197 483195 479194 475194 471199 461208 453214 448216
      442217 437219 432223 431226 431231 434237 432243 428248
      428250 430254 436258 442259 444262 445266 446270 448272
      455273 476268 481267 484267 486269 493274 498279 501282
      506282 508280 510275 511271
 0.25 512918 512913 512908 509898 507884 508873 508857 507838
      505824 502811 499803 495795 490789 483784 480782 475780
      472780 468779 464777 459777 454777 449777 443781 437787
      434790 431791 420793 414795 411798 404804 398810 391818
      383830 374844 363862 355879 352885 350895 347903 345914
      342923 340928 339931 341932 347926 352916 360903 364896
      369889 392859 396853 400846 409831 420813 422810 424809
      426811 427817 428824 429830 425839 423847 419857 417866
      418872 421877 424880 431879 439875 443869 447861 449858
      452855 459851 468851 476857 479862 481869 481879 480885
      478887 475890 474895 477906 480916 486924 492933 499937
      505933 510926 512918
 0.25 498174 498171 496169 493166 490164 487159 484156 479157
      476160 475162 476167 477169 480175 483177 486179 490179
      493178 497175 498174
 0.25 403873 402868 399867 396869 391875 386881 381889 378898
      375908 376910 380907 385902 391895 395888 400878 403873
 0.50 508272 510264 511255 509239 505229 498217 496213 491209
      486205 482203 478203 473204 464210 447221 440226 443231
      444235 442237 439241 438245 438250 449253 451257 453263
      458264 464264 484263 492269 500277 505278 508272
 0.50 500847 500840 498834 496817 494811 492806 485798 477793
      473792 466792 461793 457796 454798 450798 448799 446802
      445807 445813 445817 447819 451817 455808 458803 461805
      476817 482824 487835 489840 490847 491857 492866 495877
      496879 497876 498868 500847
 0.50 499898 499896 499893 499891 498888 497886 496884 495885
      494886 493889 493891 494894 493895 493896 493899 493901
      493902 495903 497902 497901 498899 499898
 0.50 398823 397819 392823 385832 379842 376846 374853 373860
      369866 367871 366878 369876 373871 380863 387853 389848
      387845 388842 394831 398823
 1.00 503270 503260 505256 506251 505243 504238 502233 493219
      487213 479210 473211 466214 460217 457219 454223 454233
      448239 456241 466245 474248 478250 481254 487259 493265
      499271 502272 503270
 1.50 493259 494256 494254 493253 493251 492250 491248 491247
      489246 488246 487249 488252 488253 489255 490256 491257
      492258 493259 493259
 1.50 486218 485216 484215 482215 480215 480216 482217 483218
      485219 486218
 1.50 468220 468217 466218 464218 464219 462219 461220 460221
      459222 460225 462224 463223 464223 465223 467222 468220

$$





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