Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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TXUS20 KNES 172020
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/17/14 2020Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2000Z  JS
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LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...POSSIBLE GREATER ORGANIZATION SETTING UP WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVER SE TX.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION SHOWS SCATTERED CELLS HAVE FORMED IN FAVORABLE REGION
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
PROFILES/OBSERVATIONAL DATA ARE INDICATING VERY DEEP MOISTURE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS RUNNING FROM THE MID TO HIGH 70`S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM RECENT MICROWAVE AND GPS DATA NEAR 2.3" WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO
POINTING TOWARD AN INDIRECT CONNECTION TO THE MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM ODILE. THIS IS RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH
THE MATURE CELLS LIKELY PRODUCING 2-3"/HR AND EVEN BRIEFLY HIGHER THAN
3"/HR ISOLATED RATES.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2015-0215Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...VISIBLE ANIMATION HAS SHOWN CONVERGENCE IN THE CU
FIELD INTO GROWING AREA OF CONVECTION FROM THE SW AND FROM THE NE. THIS IS
LEADING TO MORE CELL/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND GREATER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH
WITH SOME INDICATION OF A POSSIBLE WEDGE SIGNATURE FORMING OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR 2 NEAR AND NW OF HOUSTON. WITH HIGH ESTIMATED/OBSERVED RAIN RATES
OF 2-3"/HR, CERTAINLY BELIEVE THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED 2-4"
TOTALS IN A 1-2 HOUR TIME FRAME. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BACK BUILD INLAND TO THE NW TOWARD THE GREATER
INSTABILITY AND ALIGN ITSELF PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW. AT THIS TIME,
WITH THE LACK OF FOCUSED INFLOW, BELIEVE THE THREAT FROM THIS PARTICULAR
ROUND WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED AND LIKELY LAST FOR ONLY THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY GIVEN THE
OVERALL DIFFLUENT PATTERN SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION AND THE
PRESENCE OF VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH INDIRECT CONNECTION TO ODILE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3087 9565 3010 9424 2898 9383 2832 9472 2851 9592
3027 9649
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