Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 021951
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MIZ000-WIZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/02/15 1950Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1945Z  JS
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LOCATION...N LOWER MICHIGAN/CENT TO E WISCONSIN...
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ATTN WFOS...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...ARX...MPX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES AND MESO-ANALYSIS FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENT TO E WI AND N LOWER MI.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
FOR CENT TO E WI...ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH HISTORY OF UPWIND REGENERATION
ON THE NOSE OF WARM ADVECTION CENTERED AROUND 850MB CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS TO THE E AND SE IN HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ON THE
S PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL VORT CENTER SEEN IN WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. IN
ADDITION, CONVECTION IS NOW FIRING TO THE EAST OF THIS ORIGINAL ELEVATED
MCS OVER CENT TO E WI WITH GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATING LOWERING OF
CINH IN THIS REGION. IN ADDITION, VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWS THE WESTWARD
EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SETTLING SOUTHWARD OVER E WI WHICH SHOULD
FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT AS 20-25KT 850MB LLJ ENCOUNTERS IT. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FILL IN EVEN MORE OVER CENT TO E WI WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING/MERGING AND TRAINING CELLS WHERE THE MEAN
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE AXIS OF CELL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THE W
EXTENSION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER E WI AND THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ON
THE S PERIPHERY OF THE OLD COLD POOL/ORIGINAL MCS . SLIGHTLY ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST WITH 1.5" TO ALMOST 1.75" PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES PRESENT RESULTING IN LOCALLY OVER 2"/HR RAIN RATES WITH LOCALIZED
2"-4" TOTALS LIKELY.
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FOR N LOWER MI...CURRENTLY WATCHING PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACROSS N LOWER MI WHERE INLAND PROPAGATING LAKE BREEZE FROM LAKE HURON
ENCOUNTERS 15-20KT OF SW LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND AN APPROACHING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MOVING TO THE E AND SE ACROSS N LAKE MI INTO NW LOWER MI. IN
RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CAPE TO OVER 2500J/KG AND LOWERING
OF CINH PER GOES SOUNDER ANIMATION, SEEING AGITATED CU AND SCATTERED
CELL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN THIS UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY UNSEASONABLE LOWER TO MID 70`S SFC DEWPOINTS AND
PW VALUES OF OVER 1.5". FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WILL BE WATCHING FOR
AN INCREASE IN CELL/OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WITH RESULTANT SLOWER CELL
MOTIONS. THE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN THE APPROXIMATE SHORT WAVE RIDGE
AXIS WHICH ALSO FAVORS SLOWER CELL MOTIONS THOUGH DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WHICH COULD BE A MITIGATING FACTOR
KEEPING THE THREAT VERY LOCALIZED WITH THE GREATER FORCING MECHANISMS
PRESENT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER WI.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4545 8516 4506 8360 4426 8387 4411 8581 4410 8746
4445 9055 4502 9120 4511 8949 4523 8763
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NNNN


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