Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 062158
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/06/15 2157Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2115Z  JS
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LOCATION...W AND NW TEXAS/W TO N OKLAHOMA/S CENT TO SE KANSAS/E NEW
MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH VARYING THREATS COVERING A
LARGE AREA.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HAVE DISCUSSED/COORDINATED WITH WPC MPD
FORECASTER AND WILL ATTEMPT TO STAGGER SPENES-MPD MESSAGE ISSUANCE AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE. SATELLITE ANIMATION AND ANALYSIS OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA
INDICATE WAVE FORMING IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NE ACROSS
NM NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER NEAR-JUST E OF CLOVIS NM. VISIBLE TRENDS ARE
DRAMATICALLY SHOWING THE DEVELOPING COMPLEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IN
FAR E NM/NW TX AND NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER
TO THE NE INTO NW OK AND S CENT KS WHERE SIGNIFICANT BACK BUILDING HAS
RECENTLY BEEN NOTED WITH S END OF STRONG LINEAR COMPLEX ACROSS S CENT
KS. GOES SOUNDER ANIMATION SHOWS CINH HAS VIRTUALLY NOW BEEN ELIMINATED
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN THE 2 COMPLEXES WHILE SOUNDER DATA, RAP
ANALYSIS, AND THE NEARCAST VERTICAL THETA-E DIFFERENCING PRODUCTS ALL
REVEAL EXCEPTIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE 2 COMPLEXES.
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OUTLOOK...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, CERTAINLY VERY CONCERNED WITH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE THIS WELL ADVERTISED DEVELOPING EVENT FROM E NM
ACROSS N TX INTO W AND N OK/S CENT-SE KS. THE GREATEST OVERALL HEAVY
RAINFALL CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS APPEARS TO BE FROM N OF
MIDLAND TO LUBBOCK TO JUST SW OF AMARILLO THEN EXTENDING TO THE NE
AND E FROM THERE TOWARD W OK S OF GAGE. THIS PARTICULAR AXIS IS WHERE
SFC CONVERGENCE IS BEING MAXIMIZED AND THE MEAN FLOW APPEARS TO ALIGN
ITSELF MORE FAVORABLY TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTION WHICH WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS CELL/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND SIGNIFICANT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH PRIOR TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL PROPAGATION. FARTHER TO THE NE INTO KS,
DEFINITELY A HIGH SHORT TERM THREAT WITH BACK BUILDING/INTENSE RAIN
RATES OVER S CENT-SE KS THOUGH WESTERLY MEAN FLOW ALONG WITH COLD POOL
FORMATION AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION IS SEEN A BIT FARTHER TO THE NE IN
KS WHICH IS LIMITING THE DURATION OF THE INTENSE RAINFALL. THE SPECIFIC
THREAT AREAS DESCRIBED IN THIS MESSAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALL LIE
WITHIN WPC`S MODERATE RISK AREA. PLEASE REFER TO WPC QPF AND UPCOMING
MPD`S FOR MORE DETAILS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3784 9717 3666 9720 3521 9879 3370 10099 3218 10240
3314 10396 3467 10368 3535 10232 3597 10024 3758 9825

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