Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 261227
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0627 MDT Thursday, May 26, 2016

This forecast is for Thursday, May 26, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 66.9 F/19.4 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1182 ft/min (6.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 20917 ft MSL (16078 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 75.0 F/24.3 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1100 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 10045 ft MSL (5206 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 05/27....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:52:50 / 20:29:31 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 36 min 41 sec (876 min 41 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:11:22 MDT... 72.16 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/26/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 11905 ft MSL (7066 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16697 ft MSL (11858 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 17548 ft MSL (12709 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.6
K index......................... +11.7

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -53.8 -64.8   573170  -19423  -9999   0.9   0.5  110.8 231.5    49.7      M    M
 45000  -52.4 -62.3   573170  -19423  -9999  -0.8  -0.4   87.3 189.2    38.8      M    M
 40000  -50.8 -59.4   573170  -19423  -9999   2.1   1.1   66.9 152.5    28.2      M    M
 38000  -52.1 -61.8   573170  -19423  -9999  -7.0  -3.8   56.2 133.1    21.7      M    M
 36000  -52.7 -62.9   573170  -19423  -9999   4.5   2.5   46.6 115.9    15.7      M    M
 34000  -53.1 -63.6   573170  -19423  -9999   0.6   0.3   37.8 100.1     9.9      M    M
 32000  -52.9 -63.2   573170  -19423  -9999   2.7   1.5   29.9  85.9     4.4      M    M
 30000  -47.6 -53.7   573170  -19423  -9999   8.2   4.5   28.2  82.7     3.2      M    M
 29000  -45.1 -49.2   573170  -19423  -9999   9.3   5.1   27.7  81.8     2.8      M    M
 28000  -42.3 -44.1   573170  -19423  -9999   9.2   5.0   27.3  81.1     2.6      M    M
 27000  -39.6 -39.3   573170  -19423  -9999   9.2   5.0   27.1  80.7     2.5      M    M
 26000  -36.8 -34.2   573170  -19423  -9999   9.2   5.0   26.9  80.5     2.4      M    M
 25000  -34.1 -29.4   200   24   12   9.2   5.0   26.9  80.5     2.4      M    M
 24000  -31.4 -24.5   210   21   11   8.8   4.8   26.6  79.9     2.2      M    M
 23000  -28.6 -19.5   210   24   12   9.2   5.1   26.3  79.4     2.0      M    M
 22000  -26.7 -16.1   205   27   14   1.3   0.7   25.2  77.3     1.0      M    M
 21000  -24.7 -12.5   205   30   15   7.4   4.0   24.1  75.3     0.1      M    M
 20000  -22.6  -8.7   195   26   14   7.2   4.0   23.2  73.7    -0.7   1502  7.6
 19500  -21.4  -6.5   195   23   12   9.2   5.0   22.9  73.2    -0.9   1451  7.4
 19000  -20.0  -4.0   200   21   11   9.0   5.0   22.8  73.0    -1.1   1397  7.1
 18500  -18.8  -1.8   180   18    9   7.4   4.1   22.6  72.7    -1.3   1344  6.8
 18000  -17.5   0.5   175   17    9   9.7   5.3   22.4  72.3    -1.5   1292  6.6
 17500  -16.2   2.8   175   15    8   9.4   5.1   22.4  72.2    -1.5   1236  6.3
 17000  -14.1   6.6   180   12    6   9.3   5.1   22.3  72.2    -1.6   1151  5.8
 16500  -12.7   9.1   185   11    6   9.3   5.1   22.3  72.1    -1.6   1095  5.6
 16000  -11.3  11.7   185   11    6   9.3   5.1   22.3  72.1    -1.7   1039  5.3
 15500   -9.9  14.2   175   10    5   9.3   5.1   22.2  71.9    -1.8    982  5.0
 15000   -8.5  16.7   165   10    5   9.3   5.1   22.1  71.8    -1.8    926  4.7
 14500   -7.1  19.2   155   11    5   9.3   5.1   22.1  71.7    -1.9    869  4.4
 14000   -5.7  21.7   145   11    6   9.3   5.1   22.0  71.6    -2.0    813  4.1
 13500   -4.3  24.3   135   10    5   9.3   5.1   21.9  71.4    -2.1    756  3.8
 13000   -3.0  26.6   125    9    5   9.3   5.1   21.8  71.3    -2.2    700  3.6
 12500   -1.6  29.1   115    9    5   9.3   5.1   21.7  71.1    -2.3    643  3.3
 12000   -0.2  31.6   105    9    5   9.3   5.1   21.7  71.0    -2.4    587  3.0
 11500    1.2  34.2   115   10    5   9.3   5.1   21.5  70.7    -2.5    531  2.7
 11000    2.6  36.7   120   11    6   9.3   5.1   21.4  70.5    -2.7    474  2.4
 10500    4.0  39.2   125   12    6   9.4   5.1   21.3  70.3    -2.8    418  2.1
 10250    4.7  40.5   130   13    6   9.2   5.1   21.2  70.2    -2.8    390  2.0
 10000    5.2  41.4   130   13    6   3.7   2.0   21.0  69.9    -3.0    366  1.9
  9750    5.4  41.7   135   11    6   3.1   1.7   20.4  68.7    -3.6    355  1.8
  9500    5.8  42.4   140   10    5   7.8   4.3   20.1  68.2    -3.9    333  1.7
  9250    6.4  43.5   145    8    4   8.0   4.4   20.0  68.0    -4.1    308  1.6
  9000    7.0  44.6   155    7    4   7.9   4.3   19.9  67.7    -4.2    283  1.4
  8750    7.6  45.7   150    6    3   8.0   4.4   19.7  67.5    -4.4    258  1.3
  8500    8.2  46.8   145    6    3   7.5   4.1   19.6  67.2    -4.5    233  1.2
  8250    8.6  47.5   135    5    3   2.9   1.6   19.3  66.7    -4.8    213  1.1
  8000    8.6  47.5   125    5    3  -1.0  -0.5   18.5  65.3    -5.6    206  1.0
  7750    8.7  47.7   115    5    3   5.6   3.1   17.9  64.2    -6.3    197  1.0
  7500    9.4  48.9   105    6    3  10.4   5.7   17.8  64.1    -6.3    168  0.9
  7250   10.1  50.2   095    7    4   9.1   5.0   17.8  64.1    -6.4    140  0.7
  7000   10.8  51.4   090    8    4   9.5   5.2   17.8  64.1    -6.4    112  0.6
  6750   11.5  52.7   095    9    5   9.3   5.1   17.8  64.0    -6.4     83  0.4
  6500   12.1  53.8   100   10    5   9.6   5.3   17.7  63.9    -6.5     55  0.3
  6250   12.8  55.0   100   11    6   8.7   4.8   17.7  63.9    -6.6     27  0.1
  6000   13.5  56.3   105   13    7  12.2   6.7   17.7  63.9    -6.6      M    M
  5750   14.2  57.6   105   11    6  -0.9  -0.5   17.7  63.8    -6.6      M    M
  5500   13.4  56.1   110    9    5 -12.7  -7.0   16.1  61.0    -8.2      M    M
  5250   12.8  55.0   115    7    4  -1.4  -0.8   14.9  58.8    -9.5      M    M
  5000   12.9  55.2   125    5    2   2.0   1.1   14.2  57.6   -10.2      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/26/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       05/26/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +16.7  LI... +273.4             | K index... +12.0  LI... +272.3
CAPE... +20.0  CIN... -46.0                | CAPE... +151.0  CIN... -37.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.1 -63.6  225  22 12   1.2   0.7 | -53.3 -63.9  230  25 13   1.3   0.7
 45000 -51.3 -60.3  225  24 12   0.6   0.4 | -51.4 -60.5  230  24 12   0.6   0.3
 40000 -50.8 -59.4  215  26 14   0.3   0.2 | -51.1 -60.0  225  19 10   0.2   0.1
 38000 -51.0 -59.8  210  26 13  -1.0  -0.5 | -51.2 -60.2  215  18  9  -0.8  -0.4
 36000 -51.6 -60.9  200  24 13  -1.0  -0.5 | -51.7 -61.1  195  19 10  -0.8  -0.4
 34000 -51.9 -61.4  190  23 12   4.1   2.3 | -51.8 -61.2  180  22 11   4.4   2.4
 32000 -49.6 -57.3  185  20 10   3.8   2.1 | -49.5 -57.1  170  24 12   3.9   2.1
 30000 -47.0 -52.6  175  18  9   8.0   4.4 | -46.9 -52.4  165  25 13   8.2   4.5
 29000 -44.2 -47.6  180  18  9   7.5   4.1 | -44.0 -47.2  170  25 13   7.8   4.3
 28000 -42.0 -43.6  180  18  9   7.5   4.1 | -41.6 -42.9  170  24 12   7.8   4.3
 27000 -39.7 -39.5  185  18  9   8.0   4.4 | -39.3 -38.7  170  23 12   8.3   4.6
 26000 -37.2 -35.0  180  19 10   8.2   4.5 | -36.7 -34.1  170  22 11   8.6   4.7
 25000 -34.8 -30.6  180  20 10   8.3   4.5 | -34.2 -29.6  170  20 10   8.6   4.7
 24000 -32.3 -26.1  180  21 11   8.5   4.7 | -31.6 -24.9  170  19 10   8.3   4.6
 23000 -29.7 -21.5  185  20 11   8.8   4.8 | -29.2 -20.6  170  17  9   8.1   4.4
 22000 -27.1 -16.8  190  20 10   8.8   4.8 | -26.8 -16.2  175  14  7   8.1   4.4
 21000 -24.5 -12.1  195  20 10   8.4   4.6 | -24.4 -11.9  175  12  6   8.6   4.7
 20000 -21.9  -7.4  205  19 10   8.4   4.6 | -21.8  -7.2  190  10  5   8.6   4.7
 19500 -20.7  -5.3  205  19 10   8.4   4.6 | -20.5  -4.9  195  10  5   8.6   4.7
 19000 -19.4  -2.9  210  18  9   8.4   4.6 | -19.2  -2.6  205   9  5   8.7   4.8
 18500 -18.2  -0.8  210  18  9   8.3   4.5 | -18.0  -0.4  215   9  5   8.5   4.7
 18000 -17.0   1.4  210  16  8   8.2   4.5 | -16.7   1.9  215   9  5   8.4   4.6
 17500 -15.7   3.7  210  15  8   8.3   4.5 | -15.5   4.1  220   9  4   8.4   4.6
 17000 -14.5   5.9  205  13  7   8.6   4.7 | -14.2   6.4  220   8  4   8.4   4.6
 16500 -13.2   8.2  200  12  6   8.5   4.7 | -13.0   8.6  220   7  4   8.4   4.6
 16000 -11.9  10.6  190  11  5   9.0   4.9 | -11.7  10.9  215   6  3   8.8   4.8
 15500 -10.6  12.9  180  10  5   9.0   4.9 | -10.4  13.3  210   5  3   8.8   4.8
 15000  -9.3  15.3  170   9  5   9.2   5.0 |  -9.0  15.8  200   5  2   8.8   4.8
 14500  -7.9  17.8  160   9  5   9.3   5.1 |  -7.7  18.1  190   4  2   8.8   4.9
 14000  -5.8  21.6  155   9  5   9.3   5.1 |  -5.7  21.7  170   4  2   9.0   4.9
 13500  -4.5  23.9  150   9  5   9.3   5.1 |  -4.4  24.1  160   4  2   9.0   4.9
 13000  -3.1  26.4  145   9  5   9.0   5.0 |  -3.1  26.4  150   4  2   9.2   5.0
 12500  -1.8  28.8  140   8  4   9.0   4.9 |  -1.7  28.9  145   4  2   9.3   5.1
 12000  -0.5  31.1  130   7  4   8.5   4.7 |  -0.3  31.5  140   4  2   9.2   5.0
 11500   0.8  33.4  120   7  3   8.3   4.6 |   1.0  33.8  130   4  2   9.2   5.0
 11000   2.0  35.6  110   7  3   7.5   4.1 |   2.4  36.3  120   3  2   8.4   4.6
 10500   3.1  37.6  105   6  3   6.6   3.6 |   3.5  38.3  105   3  1   7.7   4.2
 10250   3.6  38.5  105   6  3   9.6   5.3 |   4.2  39.6  095   3  1  10.4   5.7
 10000   4.5  40.1  100   6  3  10.0   5.5 |   5.0  41.0  085   3  1  10.2   5.6
  9750   5.0  41.0  100   6  3   7.3   4.0 |   5.6  42.1  075   3  1   7.6   4.2
  9500   5.6  42.1  100   6  3   8.0   4.4 |   6.2  43.2  070   3  1   8.3   4.5
  9250   6.2  43.2  100   6  3   7.9   4.3 |   6.8  44.2  065   3  1   8.1   4.5
  9000   6.8  44.2  100   5  3   7.6   4.2 |   7.4  45.3  055   3  1   8.2   4.5
  8750   7.3  45.1  095   5  3   7.2   4.0 |   8.0  46.4  055   3  1   8.3   4.6
  8500   7.9  46.2  095   5  2   7.4   4.0 |   8.6  47.5  050   2  1   7.8   4.3
  8250   8.4  47.1  095   4  2   7.2   3.9 |   9.2  48.6  045   2  1   9.7   5.3
  8000   8.9  48.0  090   4  2   6.2   3.4 |   9.9  49.8  040   2  1  10.4   5.7
  7750   9.3  48.7  080   4  2   5.5   3.0 |  10.6  51.1  040   2  1   8.9   4.9
  7500   9.7  49.5  075   5  2   5.5   3.0 |  11.3  52.3  035   2  1   9.2   5.1
  7250  10.1  50.2  070   5  3   4.2   2.3 |  12.0  53.6  030   2  1  10.1   5.5
  7000  10.4  50.7  065   5  3   3.1   1.7 |  12.8  55.0  030   2  1  10.6   5.8
  6750  10.6  51.1  065   6  3   2.2   1.2 |  13.5  56.3  025   1  1   9.9   5.4
  6500  10.8  51.4  065   5  3   3.7   2.0 |  14.3  57.7  025   1  1  10.3   5.6
  6250  11.1  52.0  065   5  3   6.1   3.4 |  15.1  59.2  025   1  1  11.2   6.1
  6000  11.6  52.9  065   4  2   7.0   3.9 |  15.9  60.6  020   1  0  11.3   6.2
  5750  12.2  54.0  070   3  2   9.5   5.2 |  16.7  62.1  015   1  0  10.6   5.8
  5500  12.9  55.2  070   3  2  11.0   6.0 |  17.6  63.7  005   1  0  13.3   7.3
  5250  13.7  56.7  070   3  2  10.1   5.5 |  18.8  65.8  010   1  1  18.6  10.2
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           05/26/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       05/26/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +16.7  LI... +272.5             | K index... +24.1  LI... +272.2
CAPE... +80.1  CIN... -6.1                 | CAPE... +135.5  CIN... -23.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.2 -63.8  225  24 12   1.0   0.6 | -53.5 -64.3  225  21 11   1.3   0.7
 45000 -51.7 -61.1  230  19 10  -0.4  -0.2 | -51.7 -61.1  230  17  9  -1.3  -0.7
 40000 -52.1 -61.8  210  14  7  -0.3  -0.1 | -53.3 -63.9  205  15  8  -1.1  -0.6
 38000 -52.4 -62.3  195  13  7  -0.5  -0.3 | -53.7 -64.7  175  13  7  -0.5  -0.3
 36000 -52.7 -62.9  180  13  7  -0.5  -0.3 | -54.0 -65.2  130  17  9  -0.5  -0.3
 34000 -52.5 -62.5  160  15  8   5.4   2.9 | -53.5 -64.3  115  24 12   7.6   4.1
 32000 -49.6 -57.3  150  21 11   4.8   2.6 | -49.3 -56.7  110  21 11   7.0   3.9
 30000 -45.7 -50.3  140  26 14   9.0   4.9 | -44.9 -48.8  105  17  9   8.7   4.8
 29000 -42.9 -45.2  140  26 13   9.1   5.0 | -41.7 -43.1  105  13  7   8.7   4.7
 28000 -40.2 -40.4  140  25 13   9.1   5.0 | -39.1 -38.4  105  10  5   8.7   4.7
 27000 -37.5 -35.5  140  24 12   8.8   4.8 | -36.5 -33.7  110   7  4   8.8   4.8
 26000 -34.9 -30.8  140  21 11   8.7   4.8 | -33.8 -28.8  095   6  3   8.9   4.9
 25000 -32.3 -26.1  140  19 10   8.7   4.8 | -31.2 -24.2  080   6  3   8.9   4.9
 24000 -29.7 -21.5  140  16  8   8.3   4.5 | -28.6 -19.5  065   6  3   8.4   4.6
 23000 -27.4 -17.3  140  13  7   7.8   4.3 | -26.2 -15.2  045   5  3   8.0   4.4
 22000 -25.0 -13.0  145  10  5   7.8   4.3 | -23.8 -10.8  020   5  3   8.0   4.4
 21000 -22.7  -8.9  155   7  4   7.5   4.1 | -21.5  -6.7  005   6  3   7.3   4.0
 20000 -20.5  -4.9  160   4  2   7.4   4.1 | -19.3  -2.7  360   6  3   7.3   4.0
 19500 -19.4  -2.9  165   3  1   7.4   4.1 | -18.3  -0.9  360   7  3   7.3   4.0
 19000 -18.3  -0.9  190   1  1   7.4   4.1 | -17.2   1.0  355   7  4   7.3   4.0
 18500 -17.2   1.0  285   1  1   7.9   4.3 | -16.1   3.0  350   7  4   7.1   3.9
 18000 -16.0   3.2  330   2  1   8.1   4.4 | -15.1   4.8  345   7  4   7.1   3.9
 17500 -14.8   5.4  340   4  2   8.1   4.4 | -14.0   6.8  340   8  4   7.1   3.9
 17000 -13.6   7.5  345   5  3   8.2   4.5 | -12.9   8.8  340   8  4   7.7   4.2
 16500 -12.3   9.9  350   6  3   8.2   4.5 | -11.8  10.8  340   8  4   7.7   4.2
 16000 -11.1  12.0  355   6  3   8.2   4.5 | -10.7  12.7  340   8  4   7.4   4.1
 15500  -9.9  14.2  360   7  3   8.2   4.5 |  -9.6  14.7  335   7  4   7.4   4.1
 15000  -8.7  16.3  005   7  4   8.4   4.6 |  -8.5  16.7  335   7  4   7.6   4.2
 14500  -7.4  18.7  005   7  3   8.6   4.7 |  -7.4  18.7  335   7  4   7.7   4.2
 14000  -5.5  22.1  010   6  3   8.5   4.7 |  -5.7  21.7  335   8  4   7.3   4.0
 13500  -4.3  24.3  010   5  3   8.5   4.7 |  -4.6  23.7  335   8  4   7.2   4.0
 13000  -3.0  26.6  005   5  2   8.7   4.8 |  -3.6  25.5  340   8  4   7.0   3.8
 12500  -1.7  28.9  005   4  2   8.8   4.8 |  -2.6  27.3  345   8  4   6.9   3.8
 12000  -0.4  31.3  005   4  2   9.0   4.9 |  -1.6  29.1  345   9  4   8.0   4.4
 11500   0.9  33.6  360   3  2   9.1   5.0 |  -0.3  31.5  350   9  5   8.6   4.7
 11000   2.2  36.0  355   3  1   8.5   4.6 |   0.9  33.6  350   9  5   8.3   4.5
 10500   3.4  38.1  345   2  1   7.9   4.3 |   2.1  35.8  355  10  5   7.6   4.2
 10250   4.1  39.4  340   2  1  10.8   5.9 |   2.7  36.9  355  10  5  10.3   5.6
 10000   5.0  41.0  340   2  1  11.3   6.2 |   3.6  38.5  355  10  5  11.2   6.1
  9750   5.7  42.3  330   2  1   9.1   5.0 |   4.3  39.7  355  10  5   9.3   5.1
  9500   6.4  43.5  325   2  1   9.7   5.3 |   5.0  41.0  355  10  5   9.8   5.4
  9250   7.1  44.8  315   2  1   9.7   5.3 |   5.7  42.3  355  10  5   9.7   5.3
  9000   7.8  46.0  315   2  1   9.8   5.4 |   6.4  43.5  355  10  5   9.7   5.3
  8750   8.5  47.3  310   1  1   9.8   5.4 |   7.2  45.0  355  10  5   9.9   5.5
  8500   9.3  48.7  300   1  1   9.4   5.2 |   7.9  46.2  355  10  5   9.6   5.3
  8250  10.0  50.0  290   1  1  11.0   6.0 |   8.6  47.5  355  10  5  10.8   5.9
  8000  10.9  51.6  285   2  1  10.8   5.9 |   9.5  49.1  355  10  5  10.4   5.7
  7750  11.6  52.9  280   2  1   9.2   5.0 |  10.2  50.4  355  10  5   9.0   5.0
  7500  12.3  54.1  275   2  1   9.4   5.1 |  10.9  51.6  355  10  5   9.2   5.1
  7250  13.0  55.4  270   2  1  10.4   5.7 |  11.6  52.9  355  10  5  10.2   5.6
  7000  13.8  56.8  260   2  1  11.0   6.0 |  12.4  54.3  355  10  5  10.6   5.8
  6750  14.6  58.3  260   2  1   9.7   5.3 |  13.1  55.6  355  11  5   9.4   5.2
  6500  15.3  59.5  255   2  1  10.1   5.5 |  13.8  56.8  355  11  5   9.7   5.3
  6250  16.1  61.0  250   2  1  11.2   6.1 |  14.6  58.3  355  10  5  10.6   5.8
  6000  17.0  62.6  245   2  1  11.7   6.4 |  15.4  59.7  355  10  5  11.0   6.0
  5750  17.8  64.0  245   2  1  10.4   5.7 |  16.2  61.2  355  10  5  10.9   6.0
  5500  18.6  65.5  240   2  1  13.5   7.4 |  17.0  62.6  355   9  5  11.1   6.1
  5250  19.9  67.8  250   2  1  21.5  11.8 |  17.8  64.0  355   9  5  11.4   6.2
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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