Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 221241
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0641 MDT Friday, July 22, 2016

This forecast is for Friday, July 22, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 83.6 F/28.7 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 932 ft/min (4.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 15795 ft MSL (10956 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 94.0 F/34.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1500 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11013 ft MSL (6173 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 07/23..... Good

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:06:32 / 20:34:53 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 28 min 21 sec (868 min 21 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:20:34 MDT... 70.92 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 07/22/2016 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 16959 ft MSL (12120 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14971 ft MSL (10132 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 15385 ft MSL (10546 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -2.6
K index......................... +25.0

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -66.0 -86.8   215    5    3  -0.7  -0.4   83.4 182.1    28.5      M    M
 45000  -62.9 -81.2   235   10    5   6.9   3.8   63.0 145.4    17.9      M    M
 40000  -51.9 -61.4   235   35   18   8.9   4.9   57.4 135.3    15.4      M    M
 38000  -46.5 -51.7   225   32   16   8.8   4.8   56.7 134.1    15.3      M    M
 36000  -41.9 -43.4   215   29   15   7.5   4.1   55.0 131.0    14.5      M    M
 34000  -37.3 -35.1   215   23   12   9.2   5.0   53.3 128.0    13.6      M    M
 32000  -32.2 -26.0   220   20   10   7.8   4.3   52.3 126.2    13.2      M    M
 30000  -26.8 -16.2   225   16    8   8.2   4.5   50.8 123.5    12.4      M    M
 29000  -24.2 -11.6   205   14    7   7.9   4.4   50.4 122.7    12.2      M    M
 28000  -21.9  -7.4   215   13    6   6.7   3.7   49.6 121.2    11.7      M    M
 27000  -19.8  -3.6   230   12    6   8.1   4.5   48.5 119.4    11.0      M    M
 26000  -17.5   0.5   230    9    4   4.8   2.6   47.7 117.9    10.5      M    M
 25000  -15.7   3.7   230    6    3   5.8   3.2   46.3 115.4     9.5      M    M
 24000  -14.1   6.6   265    6    3   6.9   3.8   45.0 112.9     8.4      M    M
 23000  -12.6   9.3   290    8    4   6.5   3.6   43.4 110.1     7.1      M    M
 22000  -10.9  12.4   305   11    6   3.2   1.8   41.9 107.4     5.8      M    M
 21000   -9.0  15.8   285    9    5   7.6   4.2   40.6 105.1     4.9      M    M
 20000   -6.9  19.6   260    8    4   6.9   3.8   39.7 103.5     4.2      M    M
 19500   -6.0  21.2   250    7    4   6.6   3.6   39.1 102.4     3.6      M    M
 19000   -5.0  23.0   255    8    4   7.0   3.8   38.5 101.4     3.2      M    M
 18500   -3.9  25.0   255    8    4   8.0   4.4   38.2 100.8     2.9      M    M
 18000   -2.7  27.1   260    9    5   8.0   4.4   37.9 100.2     2.6      M    M
 17500   -1.5  29.3   260   10    5   8.0   4.4   37.6  99.7     2.3      M    M
 17000   -0.3  31.5   260   10    5   7.4   4.1   37.4  99.2     2.1      M    M
 16500    0.8  33.4   265   11    6   4.5   2.5   36.2  97.1     1.0      M    M
 16000    1.4  34.5   265   12    6   4.2   2.3   35.3  95.5     0.2      M    M
 15500    2.2  36.0   270   12    6   8.3   4.6   34.6  94.3    -0.5    899  4.6
 15000    3.4  38.1   275   11    6   8.7   4.8   34.4  94.0    -0.7    848  4.3
 14500    4.7  40.5   280   11    6   7.9   4.3   34.3  93.7    -1.0    796  4.0
 14000    5.8  42.4   285   11    6   8.2   4.5   33.9  93.1    -1.2    745  3.8
 13500    6.9  44.4   275   11    6   9.0   4.9   33.7  92.7    -1.7    700  3.6
 13000    8.0  46.4   265   11    6   6.3   3.4   33.4  92.0    -2.0    652  3.3
 12500    9.3  48.7   255   11    6   9.3   5.1   33.1  91.6    -2.2    599  3.0
 12000   10.6  51.1   250   12    6   8.6   4.7   33.0  91.4    -2.3    543  2.8
 11500   11.7  53.1   250   13    7   8.4   4.6   32.7  90.9    -2.7    497  2.5
 11000   12.9  55.2   250   14    7   8.2   4.5   32.5  90.6    -3.0    446  2.3
 10500   14.1  57.4   250   13    7   6.6   3.6   32.3  90.2    -3.3    395  2.0
 10250   14.4  57.9   250   12    6   3.7   2.0   31.9  89.4    -3.7    378  1.9
 10000   14.7  58.5   250   10    5   4.5   2.5   31.5  88.7    -4.1    362  1.8
  9750   15.0  59.0   250    9    5   4.4   2.4   31.1  87.9    -4.6    345  1.8
  9500   15.3  59.5   250    8    4   4.1   2.2   30.6  87.1    -5.0    328  1.7
  9250   15.7  60.3   250    7    4   6.8   3.7   30.3  86.5    -5.4    311  1.6
  9000   16.3  61.3   250    6    3   9.2   5.1   30.2  86.3    -5.5    284  1.4
  8750   16.9  62.4   245    5    3   8.6   4.7   30.1  86.2    -5.6    258  1.3
  8500   17.6  63.7   240    4    2   8.7   4.8   30.0  86.0    -5.7    231  1.2
  8250   18.2  64.8   225    4    2   8.7   4.8   30.0  85.9    -5.8    205  1.0
  8000   18.9  66.0   210    3    2   8.7   4.8   29.9  85.8    -5.9    178  0.9
  7750   19.5  67.1   190    4    2   8.7   4.8   29.8  85.6    -6.0    152  0.8
  7500   20.1  68.2   175    5    3   8.8   4.8   29.7  85.5    -6.1    125  0.6
  7250   20.8  69.4   165    6    3   8.6   4.7   29.6  85.3    -6.2     99  0.5
  7000   21.4  70.5   160    8    4   9.3   5.1   29.6  85.2    -6.3     72  0.4
  6750   22.0  71.6   155   11    5   4.7   2.6   29.4  85.0    -6.4     47  0.2
  6500   22.1  71.8   150   14    7   0.5   0.3   28.8  83.8    -7.1     38  0.2
  6250   22.1  71.8   145   18    9   1.6   0.9   28.1  82.7    -7.8     29  0.1
  6000   22.2  72.0   145   21   11   1.3   0.7   27.5  81.5    -8.5     19  0.1
  5750   22.2  72.0   145   21   11   1.3   0.7   26.9  80.4    -9.2     10  0.1
  5500   22.3  72.1   140   19   10   1.6   0.9   26.3  79.3    -9.9      1  0.0
  5250   22.4  72.3   140   18    9   0.6   0.3   25.6  78.1   -10.6      M    M
  5000   22.1  71.8   135   16    8  -9.5  -5.2   24.7  76.4   -11.5      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           07/22/2016 at 0900 MDT          |       07/22/2016 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +25.1  LI... +270.9             | K index... +24.6  LI... +269.5
CAPE... +324.3  CIN... -67.5               | CAPE... +788.7  CIN... -18.9
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.2 -85.4  210  16  8   1.3   0.7 | -65.1 -85.2  205  19 10   1.8   1.0
 45000 -60.4 -76.7  220  22 12   5.8   3.2 | -60.0 -76.0  215  25 13   5.5   3.0
 40000 -51.1 -60.0  235  28 14   8.0   4.4 | -51.0 -59.8  225  26 13   8.0   4.4
 38000 -46.3 -51.3  230  28 14   8.0   4.4 | -46.2 -51.2  225  28 14   8.0   4.4
 36000 -41.6 -42.9  225  28 14   8.0   4.4 | -41.4 -42.5  225  29 15   8.0   4.4
 34000 -36.8 -34.2  220  23 12   8.0   4.4 | -36.6 -33.9  220  27 14   8.0   4.4
 32000 -31.4 -24.5  215  18  9   8.4   4.6 | -31.3 -24.3  220  25 13   8.2   4.5
 30000 -26.8 -16.2  220  15  8   7.6   4.2 | -26.8 -16.2  220  20 10   7.5   4.1
 29000 -24.6 -12.3  225  13  7   7.6   4.2 | -24.6 -12.3  220  17  9   7.5   4.1
 28000 -22.4  -8.3  225  11  6   6.9   3.8 | -22.5  -8.5  220  15  8   6.6   3.6
 27000 -20.4  -4.7  225   9  5   6.9   3.8 | -20.5  -4.9  225  13  7   6.6   3.6
 26000 -18.3  -0.9  230   7  4   6.9   3.8 | -18.5  -1.3  230  11  6   6.6   3.6
 25000 -16.3   2.7  235   5  3   6.6   3.6 | -16.5   2.3  235   9  5   6.6   3.6
 24000 -14.4   6.1  245   4  2   6.5   3.6 | -14.5   5.9  245   7  4   6.6   3.6
 23000 -12.4   9.7  265   3  2   6.5   3.6 | -12.6   9.3  265   6  3   6.7   3.7
 22000 -10.5  13.1  285   3  1   6.1   3.3 | -10.7  12.7  290   5  3   6.0   3.3
 21000  -8.7  16.3  290   3  1   6.1   3.3 |  -8.9  16.0  295   6  3   6.0   3.3
 20000  -7.0  19.4  295   3  1   6.1   3.3 |  -7.2  19.0  305   6  3   6.0   3.3
 19500  -6.1  21.0  300   3  2   6.1   3.4 |  -6.3  20.7  305   7  4   6.1   3.4
 19000  -5.2  22.6  310   3  2   6.1   3.3 |  -4.9  23.2  315   7  3   6.3   3.5
 18500  -3.9  25.0  320   3  2   6.3   3.5 |  -4.0  24.8  315   7  3   6.5   3.6
 18000  -2.8  27.0  325   3  2   7.1   3.9 |  -3.0  26.6  320   7  3   7.2   4.0
 17500  -1.8  28.8  330   4  2   7.1   3.9 |  -1.9  28.6  325   7  4   7.2   3.9
 17000  -0.8  30.6  330   4  2   7.0   3.9 |  -0.9  30.4  325   7  4   7.5   4.1
 16500   0.2  32.4  325   4  2   7.0   3.9 |   0.2  32.4  325   8  4   7.6   4.2
 16000   1.3  34.3  320   5  2   7.1   3.9 |   1.3  34.3  330   8  4   7.8   4.3
 15500   2.3  36.1  310   5  3   7.2   4.0 |   2.5  36.5  325   8  4   8.2   4.5
 15000   3.3  37.9  305   5  3   7.3   4.0 |   3.6  38.5  325   9  4   8.3   4.5
 14500   4.4  39.9  300   6  3   8.2   4.5 |   4.8  40.6  320   9  4   8.7   4.8
 14000   5.5  41.9  300   6  3   8.2   4.5 |   6.0  42.8  315   8  4   8.8   4.8
 13500   6.7  44.1  290   6  3   8.4   4.6 |   7.2  45.0  305   8  4   7.9   4.4
 13000   7.9  46.2  275   6  3   8.4   4.6 |   8.5  47.3  300   7  4   7.9   4.4
 12500   9.1  48.4  265   6  3   8.8   4.8 |   9.7  49.5  290   7  3   8.7   4.8
 12000  10.4  50.7  265   7  4   8.9   4.9 |  11.0  51.8  280   7  3   8.8   4.8
 11500  11.6  52.9  260   7  4   8.5   4.7 |  12.3  54.1  275   7  3   8.9   4.9
 11000  12.8  55.0  260   7  4   8.4   4.6 |  13.6  56.5  265   7  4   9.1   5.0
 10500  14.0  57.2  260   6  3   6.1   3.4 |  14.7  58.5  260   7  4   6.7   3.7
 10250  14.4  57.9  265   6  3   7.1   3.9 |  15.2  59.4  260   7  4   7.8   4.3
 10000  15.0  59.0  265   6  3   9.5   5.2 |  15.8  60.4  255   6  3  10.0   5.5
  9750  15.6  60.1  265   5  3   8.7   4.8 |  16.5  61.7  250   6  3   9.3   5.1
  9500  16.2  61.2  265   5  2   7.5   4.1 |  17.0  62.6  245   5  3   7.7   4.2
  9250  16.7  62.1  265   4  2   6.7   3.7 |  17.5  63.5  240   5  2   7.0   3.8
  9000  17.2  63.0  260   3  2   7.9   4.3 |  18.1  64.6  235   4  2   8.2   4.5
  8750  17.8  64.0  255   3  1   8.1   4.4 |  18.7  65.7  225   4  2   8.4   4.6
  8500  18.3  64.9  240   2  1   7.5   4.1 |  19.2  66.6  220   3  2   8.0   4.4
  8250  18.9  66.0  215   2  1   6.8   3.8 |  19.7  67.5  210   3  2   7.6   4.1
  8000  19.4  66.9  195   3  1   8.3   4.5 |  20.3  68.5  205   3  2   9.0   4.9
  7750  20.0  68.0  180   4  2   7.8   4.3 |  21.0  69.8  200   3  2  10.3   5.6
  7500  20.5  68.9  175   5  3   4.9   2.7 |  21.7  71.1  200   3  2   9.7   5.3
  7250  20.8  69.4  170   7  3   4.2   2.3 |  22.4  72.3  200   4  2   9.7   5.3
  7000  21.1  70.0  165   8  4   4.8   2.6 |  23.1  73.6  195   4  2   9.8   5.4
  6750  21.4  70.5  160   9  5   3.7   2.0 |  23.9  75.0  195   4  2  10.4   5.7
  6500  21.6  70.9  160   8  4   2.8   1.5 |  24.7  76.5  195   4  2  10.8   5.9
  6250  21.7  71.1  155   7  4   2.2   1.2 |  25.5  77.9  200   4  2  10.5   5.8
  6000  21.9  71.4  150   6  3   5.4   2.9 |  26.2  79.2  200   4  2  11.4   6.2
  5750  22.6  72.7  150   6  3  13.7   7.5 |  27.3  81.1  200   4  2  18.7  10.3
  5500  23.8  74.8  145   5  3  17.7   9.7 |  29.0  84.2  200   3  2  28.1  15.4
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           07/22/2016 at 1500 MDT          |       07/22/2016 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +22.5  LI... +271.2             | K index... +22.0  LI... +271.6
CAPE... +342.2  CIN... -26.9               | CAPE... +222.8  CIN... -64.2
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -65.2 -85.4  205  20 10   1.7   0.9 | -65.5 -85.9  220  22 11   1.3   0.7
 45000 -60.1 -76.2  215  26 13   5.7   3.1 | -61.2 -78.2  220  28 15   5.5   3.0
 40000 -50.8 -59.4  215  28 14   8.2   4.5 | -51.5 -60.7  215  27 14   8.6   4.7
 38000 -45.8 -50.4  220  30 15   8.2   4.5 | -46.3 -51.3  220  27 14   8.7   4.7
 36000 -40.9 -41.6  220  31 16   7.9   4.3 | -41.1 -42.0  220  27 14   8.5   4.7
 34000 -36.2 -33.2  225  28 14   7.9   4.3 | -36.0 -32.8  230  25 13   8.5   4.7
 32000 -31.4 -24.5  230  25 13   8.6   4.7 | -30.9 -23.6  235  24 12   8.7   4.8
 30000 -26.4 -15.5  235  20 10   7.6   4.1 | -26.7 -16.1  245  22 12   7.1   3.9
 29000 -24.1 -11.4  235  18  9   7.5   4.1 | -24.1 -11.4  255  22 11   7.1   3.9
 28000 -22.0  -7.6  240  17  9   6.8   3.7 | -22.0  -7.6  260  21 11   6.9   3.8
 27000 -20.0  -4.0  245  16  8   6.7   3.7 | -19.9  -3.8  265  20 10   6.9   3.8
 26000 -18.0  -0.4  250  15  8   6.7   3.7 | -17.9  -0.2  270  19 10   6.9   3.8
 25000 -16.0   3.2  255  14  7   6.5   3.6 | -15.8   3.6  275  17  9   6.1   3.4
 24000 -14.0   6.8  260  11  6   6.5   3.6 | -14.0   6.8  280  14  7   6.2   3.4
 23000 -12.1  10.2  270   8  4   6.5   3.6 | -12.2  10.0  290  10  5   6.2   3.4
 22000 -10.1  13.8  285   6  3   6.5   3.6 | -10.3  13.5  300   8  4   7.1   3.9
 21000  -8.2  17.2  300   6  3   6.6   3.6 |  -8.3  17.1  305   9  5   7.0   3.9
 20000  -6.3  20.7  315   7  4   6.6   3.6 |  -6.2  20.8  310   9  5   7.1   3.9
 19500  -5.3  22.5  320   7  4   6.5   3.6 |  -5.2  22.6  310   9  5   7.3   4.0
 19000  -4.4  24.1  320   7  4   6.4   3.5 |  -4.1  24.6  310  10  5   7.5   4.1
 18500  -3.5  25.7  320   7  3   6.3   3.5 |  -3.0  26.6  310  10  5   7.6   4.2
 18000  -2.5  27.5  320   6  3   6.9   3.8 |  -1.9  28.6  310  10  5   7.5   4.1
 17500  -1.5  29.3  320   6  3   6.9   3.8 |  -0.8  30.6  305   9  5   7.5   4.1
 17000  -0.5  31.1  325   6  3   7.2   3.9 |   0.3  32.5  305   9  5   7.5   4.1
 16500   0.6  33.1  325   5  3   7.5   4.1 |   1.4  34.5  300   9  4   7.5   4.1
 16000   1.7  35.1  325   5  3   7.5   4.1 |   2.5  36.5  295   8  4   7.4   4.1
 15500   2.9  37.2  325   5  3   8.2   4.5 |   3.7  38.7  290   8  4   8.1   4.5
 15000   4.1  39.4  325   5  2   8.2   4.5 |   4.8  40.6  285   8  4   8.1   4.4
 14500   5.9  42.6  320   5  3   8.7   4.8 |   6.0  42.8  285   7  4   8.4   4.6
 14000   7.1  44.8  315   5  3   8.7   4.8 |   7.2  45.0  280   7  4   8.4   4.6
 13500   8.4  47.1  310   5  3   8.7   4.8 |   9.1  48.4  280   7  4   8.9   4.9
 13000   9.6  49.3  300   6  3   8.7   4.8 |  10.4  50.7  280   7  3   8.9   4.9
 12500  10.9  51.6  295   6  3   8.8   4.9 |  11.7  53.1  280   6  3   9.1   5.0
 12000  12.2  54.0  290   7  3   8.9   4.9 |  13.0  55.4  280   6  3   9.1   5.0
 11500  13.4  56.1  280   7  4   8.7   4.7 |  14.4  57.9  280   6  3   9.1   5.0
 11000  14.7  58.5  275   7  3   9.2   5.0 |  15.6  60.1  280   6  3   9.7   5.3
 10500  15.6  60.1  270   7  3   5.1   2.8 |  16.6  61.9  280   5  3   5.0   2.7
 10250  16.1  61.0  270   7  3   9.6   5.3 |  17.2  63.0  275   5  3   9.3   5.1
 10000  16.9  62.4  265   6  3  11.1   6.1 |  17.9  64.2  275   5  2  10.7   5.8
  9750  17.7  63.9  265   6  3   9.9   5.4 |  18.7  65.7  270   5  2  10.0   5.5
  9500  18.3  64.9  260   6  3   7.0   3.8 |  19.3  66.7  265   4  2   7.3   4.0
  9250  18.7  65.7  260   6  3   8.0   4.4 |  19.8  67.6  260   4  2   7.4   4.1
  9000  19.4  66.9  255   6  3  10.3   5.6 |  20.5  68.9  255   4  2   9.3   5.1
  8750  20.1  68.2  255   6  3   9.8   5.4 |  21.1  70.0  245   4  2   8.6   4.7
  8500  20.8  69.4  255   6  3   9.7   5.3 |  21.7  71.1  240   4  2   7.8   4.3
  8250  21.5  70.7  255   6  3   9.7   5.3 |  22.2  72.0  230   4  2   7.6   4.2
  8000  22.2  72.0  255   6  3   9.7   5.3 |  22.7  72.9  220   4  2   8.2   4.5
  7750  22.9  73.2  250   6  3  10.0   5.5 |  23.3  73.9  215   4  2   9.0   4.9
  7500  23.7  74.7  250   6  3  10.4   5.7 |  24.0  75.2  215   4  2   9.9   5.4
  7250  24.5  76.1  250   6  3  10.4   5.7 |  24.7  76.5  210   4  2  10.2   5.6
  7000  25.3  77.5  250   6  3  10.3   5.7 |  25.4  77.7  210   4  2   9.5   5.2
  6750  26.0  78.8  250   6  3  10.3   5.7 |  26.1  79.0  210   4  2   9.7   5.3
  6500  26.8  80.2  250   6  3  10.7   5.9 |  26.9  80.4  210   4  2  10.6   5.8
  6250  27.6  81.7  250   6  3   9.9   5.5 |  27.7  81.9  210   4  2  10.4   5.7
  6000  28.3  82.9  250   5  3  12.5   6.9 |  28.4  83.1  210   4  2  10.2   5.6
  5750  29.5  85.1  250   6  3  15.5   8.5 |  29.2  84.6  210   4  2  10.2   5.6
  5500  30.6  87.1  250   6  3  15.0   8.2 |  29.9  85.8  210   4  2  10.6   5.8
  5250  31.7  89.1  250   6  3  15.6   8.6 |  30.7  87.3  210   4  2  10.3   5.7
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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