Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 280511
SWODY1
SPC AC 280509

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING GRADUALLY EWD TODAY...WEAKENING WITH TIME AS IT APPROACHES
THE E COAST.  IN ITS WAKE...A LOWER-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD IS PROGGED
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.  WITHIN THIS FLATTER FLOW FIELD...A
VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES AND THEN TURN ESEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED AT THE SURFACE
BY A COLD FRONT -- WHICH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE
NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SUN.

WHILE SCANT BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY YIELD MEAGER CAPE DEVELOPMENT ATOP A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
APPEARS POSSIBLE...WITH ANY CONVECTION THEN SPREADING QUICKLY SEWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EVENING.  WHILE A LOCALLY STRONGER
GUST MAY OCCUR IF A SUSTAINED CELL OR TWO WERE TO EVOLVE...EVEN A
LOW /5%/ PROBABILITY SEVERE RISK AREA APPEARS UNWARRANTED ATTM.

..GOSS/LEITMAN.. 03/28/2015



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