Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 231224
SWODY1
SPC AC 231222

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...

A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SITUATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD IN RESPONSE TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL
GULF STATES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATTER FEATURE...A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NWRN MEXICO AND THE SRN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS PRESENT WITHIN THE BASE
OF A NERN PACIFIC LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN PLAINS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WILL WEAKEN TODAY WHILE SHIFTING EWD. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO ARKLATEX WILL
MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY ONE
PERIOD.

...PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

A NUMBER OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL MOVE INLAND THIS PERIOD ON
THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE HIGH-MOMENTUM AIR STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE.
COOLING ALOFT AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES
WILL PROMOTE A FEW TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND IN THE
WAKE OF A PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.

...FAR ERN NEW ENGLAND...

THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST...A
FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH THE CAPE COD AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.

...S FL...

ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY INVOF A WEAK FRONT SETTLING
SWD THROUGH THE REGION.

...MIDWEST...

SPORADIC LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
MIDWEST WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE GREAT
PLAINS MID-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
DISPLACED FROM A MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS PRESENT OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. AS SUCH...NO TSTM AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 10/23/2014




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