Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000 FXUS62 KGSP 251858 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 258 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and cool high pressure will persist through tonight as high pressure over eastern Canada ridges down our East Coast. Rain returns on Tuesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Low pressure forms along the front over Georgia Wednesday night then moves northeast taking the front and ending the rain on Thursday. Clear weather will return by Thursday night, with dry and warmer conditions going into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 2:35 PM EDT Monday: High clouds have thinned across much of the SC Upstate over the past few hrs, while remaining more opaque across most of western NC. This pattern will likely con- tinue into the evening until lower clouds begin to spread over the area from the south as profiles begin to moisten more sub- stantially. Otherwise, stout upper ridging will linger over our region well into Tuesday as very broad/deep upper trofing gradually spreads further eastward. The upper trof will eventually push the ridge axis off the Atlantic Coast by the end of the near-term period late Tuesday. At the sfc, broad high pressure will linger over much of the Eastern CONUS today and tonight. On Tuesday, stout low pressure will lift NE over the western Great Lakes and move an occluded front over the Southeast. The front will eventually erode/dissipate whatever is left of the sfc high across our area by late Tuesday. It will also bring sct to widespread showers to our area Tuesday afternoon and evening. We`re still not expecting much in the way of thunder thru tomorrow evening, but most of the near-term guidance does have minimal amounts of elevated CAPE across our southern and western zones, so they could see a few lightning strikes tomorrow aftn/evening. In addition, QPF amounts are still not expected to be excessive across our area, but our NE Georgia and upslope zones could see 1 to 2 inches thru 00z Wednesday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 210 PM Monday: Picking up the short term in the middle of an ongoing system moving through the area. Aloft, a strong upper low strengthens over the upper Midwest and deep troughing carves out a path across much of the CONUS. Over the CWA, a cold front is anticipated to cross the mountains and linger in the eastern zones of the CWA. At this time, most of the forcing from the lingering shortwave will be too far north for any severe weather concerns. Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, moisture filtering in from SW flow will start to be pinched off as strong high pressure from Canada seeps into the CWA. Guidance from the GFS and EURO keep precip chances and moisture concentrated to the far eastern portion of the area through Wednesday night, before the shortwave is ejected eastward by a lifting trough. By Thursday, flow turns NW as drier air moves into the area and the cold front completes its march across the region. Again, looking at any sort of severe ingredients, a minimal window for some sbCAPE before in the late afternoon on Wednesday evening. As mentioned before, the forcing will not be there to support severe weather development and confidence is very low for it. QPF response for this system continues to be scaled back, especially over the western zones as the drier air pushes in quicker with each guidance run. Rain amounts will be a sharp gradient with the least in the west and most at the eastern fringe. Other than rain, winds will start to pick up on Thursday as a strong area of baroclinity spreads through the area as the trough lifts NE. Temperatures will be mild with a tick cooler values on Thursday due to a brief stint of NE surface flow. Overnight should remain well warm with the lingering moisture.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Monday: Once the rain lifts out of the area, high pressure will continue to dominate through the extended period. Aloft, flow becomes more quasi zonal as a weak ridging pattern sets up over the majority of the central CONUS. Meanwhile, strong high pressure starts to amplify over the Gulf and continues to strengthen through the period. Guidance from the GFS show a steady increase in PWATs over the weekend and into the beginning of next week as the high to the south churns in additional moisture. As heights gradually rise over the weekend, temperatures increase as well to more spring-like values. The area could see 80s to start next week with a warm weekend on tap. As for any chances of precip, GFS and EURO are not in agreement with a potential shortwave passing the northern portion of the CWA Saturday night into Sunday, with minimal QPF response. If this occurs, there could be a brief stint of showers, but nothing substantial or remarkable. As for any fire wx concerns, RH values could dip into the upper 20 percent range Friday and Saturday before moisture returns to the region. Winds on Friday could be elevated, especially across the mountains, but it`s too early to pinpoint anything too specific.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru tonight at all terminals. Cigs will begin to lower over the higher terrain first, with KAVL expected to go MVFR just after midnight. The Upstate sites will then go MVFR by roughly 10z. Expect cigs at KCLT to remain low-end VFR thru 00z Wed, but they certainly could drop below 3000 ft the closer we get to that time. As for rain chances, I expect any widespread precip to hold off until just after the end of the taf period for all terminals. KAVL will have the best chance of seeing prevailing rain before the taf period ends at 18z, but even there, I just have a PROB30 for -RA beginning at 14z tomorrow. I included PROB30s for -RA at the other taf sites as well for the last few hrs of the period. Outside of the mtns, winds will continue to favor an ELY direction with some sporadic low-end gusts thru the period, with KCLT veering to a more SELY direction later tomorrow. At KAVL, winds will remain S to SE thru the period with low-end gusts likely thru most of the taf period. Outlook: Sct to widespread showers and associated restrictions return late Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves in. Lingering showers could keep restrictions in place well into Thursday. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Increased Fire Danger until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...JPT SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...JPT

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