Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 162209
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and rain chances will return on Sunday, though with
continued warm temperatures. Drier and cooler conditions will return
early next week as Canadian high pressure builds into the Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 605 PM...Not much change to the forecast.  Cu field over the
eastern zones has trended down as daytime heating begins to wane,
but the upper cirrus has already started streaming in from the
Mississippi Valley.

Otherwise...the overnight will see an increase in mid to upper
clouds, which will curtail rad cooling and hold mins arnd 10
degrees abv normal as well. A moist srn steam pocket of energy
still looks to cross the srn zones thru most of Sun and depending
on the sfc trof track, there could a period thru mid afternoon of
light showers crossing east. The op models are at odds with a QPF
response, with most showing dry conds, while the ECMWF is keeping a
nrn track possible. Thus, will keep PoPs low (30 percent or less)
during this timeframe. Temps will once again rise abv normal Sun
in sw/ly llvl flow, however, highs will likely be held about 5
degrees cooler than today due to increased cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: Strong upper trough will be digging into
the MS Valley as we move into the short term, with a cutoff low over
the Desert SW. The upper trough will push the front through the
area, forcing the last of the showers rapidly out of the region
Sunday evening into the early overnight hours Monday night. Cold
Canadian high pressure in the Central Plains will be working its way
south and then east overnight Sunday night and then into Monday as
SW flow sets up over us under the trough aloft. Highs Monday will be
noticeably cooler with deep CAA aloft, and as the surface gradient
picks up behind the departing front, the winds especially in the
mountains will pick up noticeably. This won`t be quite strong enough
for any advisories, but will have to monitor fire weather concerns;
current afternoon minimum RHs range between 20-30% across the
Piedmont.

Expect lows to drop markedly Monday night into Tuesday morning; the
current forecast is at or below freezing everywhere. In areas where
the growing season has officially begun (SC/GA Piedmonts and the
southern NC Piedmont), freeze products will likely be needed Tuesday
morning. With the continuing CAA, expect wind chills in the 20s
across the Piedmont and teens in the mountains. Surface high shifts
south and moderates only slightly for Tuesday, so high temperatures
remain on the cool side of normal. Min RHs continue to drop into the
teens in the Piedmont, while winds aren`t quite as gusty, so fire
weather concerns will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Saturday: Not quite as cold Tuesday night with weak
NW flow aloft and the modified surface high in place over the Gulf
by this point. Warmer for Wednesday into Thursday, but a dry cold
front pushing through Wednesday night will bump temperatures back
down just a tad again from Wednesday`s highs. The Desert SW cutoff
low finally kicks out into the Southern Plains and forces surface
low formation, pulling moisture up out of the Gulf that will be our
next sensible weather impact, but there are significant differences
in how ensembles are handling this system. Mean 24h precip for
friday across the area is about 0.5". 00z ECMWF had nothing, whereas
GFS has a very wet system (though perhaps with a bit of convective
feedback in FL) and a nice classical CAD dome. Needless to say,
there is quite a bit of uncertainty this far out but ensemble
support certainly suggests wet.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conds across all sites thru the period.
Strong hipres will continue to cross the area thru Sun and maintain
a dry column and rather weak winds. A sw/ly wind shift is in store
this afternoon outside the mtns, while winds at KAVL will remain
aligned nw/ly. Deep mixing will lead to a small gust potential and
have low-end gusts included at KCLT for a few hrs this afternoon.
Increasing cloud cover during the latter period, but these should
remain in the VFR range.

Outlook: Another front will cross the area on Sunday but with
less moisture to work with for precip or restrictions. Dry high
pressure builds with gusty winds, especially on Monday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...MPR/SBK
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...SBK


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