Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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000
FXUS62 KGSP 010724
AFDGSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...AND UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE WESTERN USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH DOES LIKEWISE
OVER THE EAST. THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS WELL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WIL REMAIN OVER THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND GA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SE OUR AREA...WHILE A DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW PERSISTS NORTH OF THE FRONT. WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. WITH MODEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW
PRESENT...TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 155 AM SATURDAY...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUITE PERIOD FOR THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH KEEPS THE EAST COAST AT THE
BOTTOM OF AN UPPER TROF AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A DRY NW FLOW
ALOFT. THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY...THEN RETROGRADING SLIGHTLY MONDAY AS A WEAK
LEE TROF DEVELOPS. INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. THAT SAID...IT
LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS WEST
OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE NRN MTNS ON MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE EAST COAST TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND A WLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...BUT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH. DEW POINTS REMAIN DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR LIMITING
INSTABILITY...AND POP TO ISOLATED NRN MTN CONVECTION. HIGHS RISE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DROP TOWARD THE AREA WED CARVING OUT A SHORT
WAVE TROF WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA THU. THE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FRI...BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DROPS TOWARD THE AREA. THE
COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY DROPS INTO THE AREA WED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE CWFA THU.
THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST FRI...BUT THE FRONT ONLY SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH. THIS MEANS AN INCREASING CHC OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WED
AND THU...WITH A DECREASE ON FRI...BUT POP REMAINING IN THE CHC
RANGE. TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WED...THEN FALL A FEW DEGREES THU
AND FRI...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TO REMAIN NEAR THE FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE COAST. THE DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL
NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. MODE TIME HEIGHTS SHOW
THE MAIN CLOUD LAYER AT AROUND 6000 FT...BUT SKY COVER IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CEILING. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL BACK TO
NW TODAY...THEN VEER N THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. DRY AIR NORTH OF A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COAST
WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION OR FOG BASED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS SHOW A LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND AT
6000 FT...AND SOME LOW VFR CIGS CURRENTLY EXIST OVER UPSTATE SC AND
THE SW NC MOUNTAINS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR CEILINGS...AND MODEL TIME HEIGHTS  SHOW LESS
MOISTURE THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BACK FROM NE
TO NW.

OUTLOOK...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF GRADUALLY INCREASING
PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT


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