092
FXUS62 KGSP 280458
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1258 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
We can expect a warming trend through the weekend and into next
week as high pressure remains centered just off the Atlantic
Coast. A weak cold front is expected to move through the area
on Tuesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
western Carolinas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM Update...The fcst is in good shape this morning. Current GOES-
R shows continued upslope induced widespread clouds with bases arnd
15-25 Kft. This will limit the fog potential across the mtn valleys.
However, some guidance including the RAP are showing an increased
signal for fog across the Upstate and NE GA, but increasing StCu
moving in from the southeast before daybreak will likely limit
overall denseness and coverage if fog does form.

As of 930 PM EDT Saturday: An upper ridge will remain centered near
the East Coast through the duration of the near term forecast
period. Meanwhile at the sfc, high pressure will be centered over
New England/the Mid-Atlantic region this evening before gradually
sinking southward towards the Southeast Coast overnight into Sunday.
This pattern will lead to warm and mostly dry conditions through the
remainder of the weekend. Earlier light showers that moved across
the Piedmont have dissipated as expected, and chances for additional
activity overnight are slim-to-none. Lows tonight will end up around
5-8 degrees above climo thanks to both S`ly flow and lingering cloud
cover. Winds will turn more SW`ly on Sunday and with mostly sunny
skies expected, temps Sunday afternoon will end up a few degrees
warmer compared to what we will see this afternoon. So, Highs should
end up around 3-5 degrees above climo tomorrow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM EDT Saturday: It will continue to heat up to start off
the period as lingering deep layered ridging continues to suppress
any deep convection as temperatures climb into the lower 80s Monday
afternoon.  There should be just enough forcing and convergence
along an approaching weak cool front to support a round of numerous
showers and embedded, mainly garden variety, tstms in the mountains
at some point on Tuesday.  The consensus among the latest model
guidance maintains a response as this feature translates into the
piedmont Tuesday afternoon with another day of lower 80s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Saturday: There is better agreement today among
the latest runs of the op GFS and ECMWF that in the wake of
Tuesday`s s/wv passage, that s/wv ridging will translate atop the
region during Wednesday reducing any potential shower development
chances. Otherwise, shaping to a rather warm Spring day, solid
middle 80s across the lower elevations.  For the rest of the work
week, shaping up to be increasingly active with daily diurnally
enhanced tstm chances within the increasingly moist and unstable
return flow ahead of the next steadily advancing cool front.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Scattered light SHRA over the NC/SC Piedmont
may produce occasional sprinkles or very -SHRA, along with low VFR
cigs at KCLT for the first 1-2 hours of the forecast period.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist until around
daybreak, when lingering low level moisture is expected to result in
development of MVFR cigs at most sites, KCLT being a notable
exception. Can`t rule out a brief cig restriction there, but this
appears unlikely at this time. Any low cigs should lift and scatter
to VFR by around noon Sunday. Overnight winds will generally be
light between S/SE and S/SW before increasing to around 10 kts from
the S/SW by around noon.

Outlook: Drier weather lingers through Monday. A frontal system
could bring a round of showers and storms to the area on Tuesday,
with more of a potential for mainly mountain isolated/scattered
diurnal convection on Wed/Thu.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JDL/SBK
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL