712
FXUS64 KJAN 172350 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
650 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Through Saturday...

Overall fcst is running generally on track. Water vapor/RAP
analysis this aftn indicated stalled upper low parked over the
central Plains, with widespread moist ascent over the warm frontal
boundary along the Gulf Coast. Earlier heavy rain has let up, with
continued potential for some late aftn redevelopment in the Pine
Belt. With trends shifting southward in convective allowing
models, the flooding threat/Flood Watch were adjusted
southeastward through the evening hours & trimmed back through
Saturday morning. Nearly 99th percentile PWs & 925-850mb 340-350K
Theta E will persist across southeastern portions of the area.
Increased destabilization is ongoing as anticipated in a tight
gradient in the Pine Belt, with best potential for any aftn
redevelopment in the Hwy 98 corridor & to I-59 corridors. The
ongoing severe potential could be at earliest in the next few
hours but most likely into late evening to overnight in the Hwy 98
to I-59 corridors in the Pine Belt in southeast MS. Adjustments
have been made to Severe threat in HWO graphics, with main focus
being for damaging wind, hail quarter to golf ball size &
tornadoes possible, especially in the Hwy 98 to I-59 corridors.
Some low tornado threat in sfc mesoanalysis exists if any aftn
redevelopment occurs, with large hail up to golf ball size most
likely in the moderately unstable air & 50-60kts mean bulk shear.
Damaging winds & some hail threat will persist into the overnight
hours. Flash flooding threat will likely peaking back up in the
Pine Belt late tonight but made adjustment to current Flood Watch
to account for a smaller areal configuration & trimmed it down in
time. HWO graphics were adjusted accordingly. As the upper low
swings into the area on Saturday, some persistent westerly bulk
shear around 30-35kts & mid-level lapse rates around 6-6.5 deg.
C/mid 20s vertical totals & freezing levels around 12.5-13kft that
could support some isolated severe threat with damaging winds &
quarter size hail. Timing looks to be the mid- morning through
early evening hours. After the rain & storms move into the Pine
Belt in the morning, there could be the a brief lull in the
Natchez Trace corridor before more scattered to numerous showers &
storms move across the eastern-central portions of MS. In terms
of sensible weather, expect gradual moderation into the low-mid
80s & some increase in heat/humidity.

Late weekend through early next week (Sunday-next Thursday)...

Late weekend (Sunday): Upper low will swing into the
Appalachians, with ridging at the sfc & aloft building in from
west-east. This will drive in drier air into Sunday. Expect
moderation of highs in the mid- upper 80s Sunday, with increasing
potential heat & humidity.

Next week (Monday-Wednesday): As the mid-level & sfc ridge builds
in, increased warm advection will bring up low-level temps into the
upper teens to low 20s degree C at 850-925mb layers. Expect highs to
moderate to seasonably warm into the low 90s & lows in the mid-upper
60s while to low-mid 70s northwest of the Natchez Trace. Heat &
humidity will be on the rise around midweek with heat indices
climbing into mid-upper 90s. Low-level return flow won`t pick back
up until by late Monday evening through midweek, with rain &
storm chances picking back up around mid-late week, northwest of
the Natchez Trace on Wednesday & north of I-20 on Thursday. There
could be some organization to the next trough/frontal system for
some organized convection late week, but there is plenty of time
to iron out as we get closer. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

MVFR/IFR cigs along with ocnl -SHRA wl continue tonight in the
southeast as a stalled boundary lingers across the area. Elsewhere
a mix of VFR/MVFR cigs wl lower to MVFR and then prevail until
after 16Z. After 16Z VFR conditions wl prevail but there will be a
chance of TSRA during the aftn in the east. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       67  83  65  87 /  10  50  10  10
Meridian      67  84  64  88 /  30  70  20  10
Vicksburg     67  85  67  88 /  20  40  10   0
Hattiesburg   68  84  66  89 /  50  60  10  10
Natchez       66  84  66  88 /  20  30  10   0
Greenville    68  84  67  88 /  30  50   0   0
Greenwood     67  83  65  88 /  20  60  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ057-058-064>066-
     072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/DC/22