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000
FXUS65 KABQ 181131 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
531 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Calm weather is forecast today with much cooler air
pushing into northeastern NM. This cooler airmass expands through
eastern NM Friday, being reinforced Saturday. Fog, clouds and
drizzle and rain will favor eastern NM Saturday and Sunday mornings
will well below normal temperatures. Areas along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley will remain warm, dry and breezy for the most part. An
east canyon wind bringing some of this cooler air will spill into
Santa Fe and Albuquerque Friday night and Saturday morning as the
exception. Temperatures across eastern NM warm back up Sunday and
Monday before another cool down is favored Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

At 130 am, a potent backdoor cold front was crossing the CO/NM
border with wind gusts around 45 kt reported within southeast CO.
The latest Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows low stratus developing
in the wake of the front while surface dewpoints jump from the teens
into the mid to upper 30s. This front will be the main weather story
today as it surges south across eastern NM. 00Z hi-res ensembles and
the latest NBM are in very good agreement pushing the front south
all the way past Roswell by noon before becoming stationary along
the Pecos River Valley thru 6pm today. Winds will be veering around
to the east/southeast during the afternoon as a 1025mb surface high
drifts south into north-central KS. Max temps will be much cooler
over east-central and northeast NM but still in the upper 80s to
near 90F around Roswell. Meanwhile, central and western NM will be
very dry, warm, and breezy with increasing cirrus thru late day.

Surface pressure rises will continue progressing southward across
the Great Plains while a weak upper level shortwave trough begins
approaching from the west. This pattern will help force the surface
front over eastern NM westward to the central mt chain. 00Z bufr
profiles show the frontal depth near 3,000 ft AGL at Las Vegas and
Tucumcari with widespread low stratus developing across the east-
central and northeast plains of NM. The front will be deep enough to
push thru gaps in the central mt chain however winds will be veering
more south/southeast thru the night. This may limit the strength of
canyon winds and focus the stronger gusts into the Santa Fe area
rather than ABQ thru Friday morning. Even so, peak wind gusts for
Santa Fe and ABQ range from 30 to 35kt on the NBM 75th percentile.

Surface winds will continue veering around to the south/southwest on
Friday while low pressures deepens over northeast NM. Deep mixing of
very dry southwest winds aloft will help trend max temps warmer on
Friday across northeast NM. The deeper south/southeast flow holding
on to far southeast NM will trend temps cooler than today. Any low
clouds lingering over the area in the morning will clear from west
to east. Central and western NM will remain very dry and breezy with
temps around 10F above normal Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Global model solutions are still in good agreement for
a secondary surge westward of a frontal boundary through the gaps of
the central mountain chain and into the Rio Grande Valley Friday
night through Saturday morning. East canyon winds are still favored
at Santa Fe and Albuquerque, while increased moisture also spills
into the RGV in the form of Td`s in the 30s. Higher moisture will be
present through east-central and southeastern NM where Td`s will
rise into the 40s to low 50s at Roswell. This cooler airmass along
and east of the central mountain chain will be defined by a shallow
colder airmass capped in the mid-levels with breezy northeasterly to
easterly winds at the surface. Light rain and drizzle will be
favored, as is fog Saturday morning over eastern NM. Forecast highs
Saturday will be well below normal in the 40s and 50s. There is some
potential for more meaningful shower activity along and south of
U.S. Highway 70 between Portales and Roswell. Model guidance has
backed off with the potential for convective activity along the
western edge of this boundary from the northern mountains southward
through ABQ and down toward Ruidoso Saturday afternoon. An upper
level trough axis is modeled to cross west to east over NM during
this time, however timing is such that the trough axis will be well
over eastern NM during the best daytime heating in the afternoon.
Therefore, have tried to back off on thunderstorm potential over the
Rio Grande Valley a bit. Meanwhile, areas along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley will remain mostly dry, warm and breezy Saturday
afternoon. The frontal boundary loses cohesion Saturday night with
light southerly flow taking hold over eastern NM allowing this
cooler airmass to finally modify and warm up Sunday. Fog is possible
again over eastern NM Sunday morning before conditions clear out
with more sun.

A drying and warming trend takes hold through eastern NM heading
into next week. Another backdoor frontal intrusion bringing cooler
temperatures and a replenishment of low-level moisture is favored by
Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A backdoor cold front surging south thru eastern NM this morning
will bring a brief period of strong wind gusts of 30 to 45 kt in
the area between KCAO, KTCC, and KCVN. Winds were strong enough
around KCAO to warrant a Wind Advisory thru 15Z. MVFR low stratus
has developed in the wake of the front over northeast NM but it
will struggle to progress much farther southward today. The rest
of central and western NM will see breezy southwest winds this
afternoon with increasing cirrus from west to east. The backdoor
cold front over eastern NM will shift west to the central mt chain
this evening then push thru gaps into the RGV. Gusts of 20 to 30
kt are likely at KSAF and KABQ. A much larger area of MVFR low
stratus will develop over east-central and northeast NM tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A moist backdoor cold front entering eastern NM this morning will
bring several days of relief from the recent critical fire weather
pattern. Overnight humidity recoveries will be excellent each night
thru Monday morning while min RH values stay above 30% by Friday.
Widespread low stratus, drizzle, and a few areas of rain are even
possible Saturday. A couple storms may fire up along the central mt
chain as well Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, central and western NM
will remain very dry and breezy with marginal critical fire weather
each afternoon thru Monday. Rio Grande Valley points south of Belen
bear watching on Friday when very unstable conditions (6+ Haines)
coincide with marginal critical fire weather for a few hours in the
afternoon. Any bosque fires that develop could grow rapidly. This
overall pattern of moist backdoor cold fronts across eastern NM and
dry and breezy conditions over central and western NM may persist
thru much of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  42  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  73  37  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  73  39  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  75  31  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  71  38  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  76  32  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  75  39  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  78  50  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  43  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  79  36  80  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  49  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  67  34  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  72  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   5
Pecos...........................  72  35  72  43 /   0   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  67  39  68  46 /   0   0   0  20
Red River.......................  63  30  64  32 /   5   5   0  20
Angel Fire......................  63  25  65  30 /   5   5   0  30
Taos............................  73  32  73  38 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  70  33  71  38 /   0   0   0  20
Espanola........................  80  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  73  43  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  77  40  77  46 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  49  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  48  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  84  47  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  82  47  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  83  46  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  83  46  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  83  46  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  78  48  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  81  47  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  86  50  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  72  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  76  44  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  77  40  77  43 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  34  79  41 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  73  35  73  38 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  76  43  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  42  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  81  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  75  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  59  32  65  31 /   5   0   5  40
Raton...........................  69  31  72  35 /   5   5   0  30
Springer........................  69  33  73  38 /   5   5   0  30
Las Vegas.......................  71  35  72  38 /   0   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  58  35  65  34 /   0   0   0  40
Roy.............................  64  36  67  37 /   0   0   0  40
Conchas.........................  70  41  75  41 /   0   0   0  40
Santa Rosa......................  74  41  72  41 /   0   0   0  20
Tucumcari.......................  68  39  71  40 /   0   0   0  50
Clovis..........................  73  42  68  43 /   0   0   0  50
Portales........................  76  42  69  42 /   0   0   0  50
Fort Sumner.....................  77  43  74  43 /   0   0   0  30
Roswell.........................  90  51  78  53 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  85  47  76  47 /   0   0   0  10
Elk.............................  85  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for NMZ230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...42