428
FXAK69 PAFG 131052
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
252 AM AKDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front moving over the Interior this afternoon will provide
scattered to numerous showers and a chance for a thunderstorm as
well. A strong front will likely impact the west coast on Tuesday
with snow and blowing snow along the Bering Strait. In Nome, it is
looking like more of a snow to rain event with strong southerly
winds. Unsettled weather will continue for the west coast
Wednesday and Thursday.

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
The 00z models initialized well at 500mb. There is weak troughing
over the North Slope that has previously provided localized areas
of dense fog. A ridge over the Bering and West Coast with a
shortwave moving trough moving through the West Coast this
morning, then into the Interior by this evening. There is upper
level energy just to the northeast of Eagle and a low south of
Pilot Point in the AK Peninsula which continues to move into the
Northern Gulf of Alaska today.

West Coast and Western Interior...
High pressure will keep most of the west coast quiet and dry
today. Temperatures will be a bit cooler inland with highs in the
40s to near 50 and lower 50s towards the AK Range. Along the
coast, expect highs in the 20s north of the Seward Peninsula and
low to mid 30s from Nome south. Scattered to numerous showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm in the western Alaska Range
today. A strong front will begin to impact the west coast on
Tuesday with strong southerly winds and snow and blowing snow for
Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. This will be similar
to the events back in March. A Special Weather Statement has been
issued for potential impacts. Winter Storm Watches have been
issued for Saint Lawrence Island, Bering Strait and the Seward
Pen. Southerly winds could gust between 30 and 55 mph and there
could be near Blizzard conditions on Saint Lawrence Island and the
Bering Strait. Snow and strong winds will develop over the Seward
Peninsula Tuesday evening with the heaviest snow coming overnight.
Then from Brevig Mission east, it will change over to rain or a
rain/snow mix Wednesday morning. For the Yukon Delta Coast, snow
will begin during the evening and change over to rain early
Wednesday morning, though most of the precipitation will be mainly
light. Along the Chukchi Sea Coast, snow will begin Wednesday
night with strong southerly to southeasterly winds, then it may
change over to rain/snow Wednesday afternoon. There may be some
minor elevated surf impacts for southern facing shorelines and
along the Yukon Delta coast for 2 to 4 foot water level rises.
Chances for precip will continue into Thursday.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered to numerous showers and Isolated thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon as a trough from the west moves through.
On Tuesday showers and an isolated storm will be confined to the
Eastern Interior as high pressure builds over the Interior. No
precip expected on Wednesday as it will be a beautiful, partly to
mostly sunny day with highs in the lower 60s.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Patchy fog will hang around the Arctic Coast with a few flurries
as well. Expect high temperatures in the 20s along the coast with
30s in the Brooks Range through early next week. The weather looks
to remain pretty mundane today. Then Tuesday evening, we are
monitoring a Bering Sea Low which will bring a strong front to the
West Coast. There may be some winter weather impacts to the
Chukchi Sea Coast, especially Point Hope. Snow is expected to
begin in Point Hope around midnight with southerly winds
increasing to 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. The snow may mix
with rain at times on Wednesday, but the winds will remain strong
through Thursday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...
A Bering Sea low with strong southerly winds looks to bring water
levels 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tide line Wednesday
morning through Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it
may not be enough to bump it out of place, but water on top of the
ice is a possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push
ashore as well, but the beach would be the farthest that these ice
pans get. These impacts will be monitored early this week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Models are not in agreement for day 4 and beyond, but expect more
of the same in the Interior with showers and isolated storms and high
temperatures in the 50s/60s. Troughing looks to remain over the
West Coast and Western Interior with some active weather. Though
nothing looks particularly impactful this far out.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures remain in the 50s through Tuesday, then bump into the
60s on Wednesday with highs sticking around the upper 50s and low
60s through the end of the week. Scattered to numerous rain
showers with an isolated storm possible today then that pushes to
the AlCan Border on Tuesday. Wednesday looks to be dry everywhere
with partly to mostly sunny skies. Minimum RH`s will be around
25-35% through Tuesday, then decrease to 20-30% on Wednesday.
Winds remain relatively light, though any shower or storm may
cause some erratic winds with gusts as high as 30 mph possible.

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice jam near Circle has released and everything is moving
downstream. Ice and water released from the jam is expected to
reach Fort Yukon during the early morning hours, then proceed
down river. Ice had moved into Stevens Village yesterday
afternoon but was stopped at the Dalton Highway Bridge. Breakup is
expected at Stevens Village Tuesday or Wednesday of this week.
Otherwise, a gradual breakup on the Upper Yukon is expected to
continue.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

Bianco