966
FXUS63 KAPX 112327
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
727 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing skies into tonight, leading to favorable aurora
  viewing and patchy frost potential.

- Thunderstorm potential beginning late Sunday afternoon/Sunday
  evening. A few strong storms possible.

- Some frost potential Tuesday morning?

- Noticeably warmer temperatures to end the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will continue to dig southeast of the region
over the northeast CONUS/Mid-Atlantic tonight as ridging temporarily
slides overhead by Sunday morning. At the surface, the weak cyclone
centered over Lake Huron will also move east of the Great Lakes
tonight as relatively high pressure works into the state. This will
be short lived, however, as a second shortwave rotating across
southern Canada will support a second cyclone that is expected to
trek across Ontario on Sunday, swinging an attendant cold front
across the region late in the period.

Forecast Details:

Clearing skies into tonight -- As aforementioned low pressure
continues to slide east, showers across northeast lower Michigan
will diminish this afternoon into early evening as cloud cover
clears from west to east. With ongoing geomagnetic storm activity,
this will lead to favorable viewing conditions for potential aurora
viewing tonight -- unlike last night across the majority of northern
Michigan. Additionally, clear skies and calm winds will lead to
efficient radiational cooling after sunset, allowing temperatures
to dip well into the 30s for most interior areas. Marginal
temperatures in the mid-30s for most areas and recent rainfall
decreases confidence in widespread frost conditions, so electing to
issue a Special Weather Statement for now vs. issuing a Frost
Advisory. However, localized low-lying cold spots may see frost
development if temperatures cool into the low 30s.

Thunderstorm potential beginning late Sunday afternoon/Sunday
evening -- After a second round of showers departs the area SUnday
morning, additional development is expected along/ahead of the
aforementioned cold front late Sunday afternoon and evening. This
will lead to potential thunderstorms, primarily for areas along and
west of US-131 by the end of the period (00Z Monday/8 PM EDT
Sunday). Showers/storms will move into an environment characterized
by marginal elevated buoyancy (~500 J/kg MUCAPE) and relatively
strong wind shear aloft (~35-40 kts 0-6km shear ad EBWD). A few
strong storms may initiate late Sunday afternoon/evening, and the
potential for a severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. The primary
hazards with any strong storm will be strong wind gusts and hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

Pattern/synopsis: A cold front moves across the region Sunday night.
A wave of low pressure then tracks by to our south early in the
week. Heights slowly build through mid-week then a front moves
across the region later in the week. Low pressure likely moving by
to the north Friday into Saturday is expected to advect noticeably
warmer air into the region.

Forecast: Hi/resolution guidance continues to drive a line of
showers and embedded thunderstorms across the region through early
Sunday night along an advancing cold front. Some guidance has
upwards of a few hundred J/kg of mixed layer cape across the
southern half of the forecast area. However, severe storms are not
anticipated at this time though small hail and gusty winds can not
be ruled out. Fog is possible overnight. Attention will then turn to
the south where a wave of low pressure is expected to track across
the central Ohio Valley Monday into Tuesday. Guidance continues to
keep much of the moisture to our south but will keep in ongoing low
chance pops across far southern counties to cover for any northward
wobble. Could see some patchy frost late Monday night depending upon
a few factors (especially the amount of cloud cover and winds).
Short wave ridging then builds in for mid-week likely leading to
rain free conditions along with seasonable temperatures. A weak
front will return shower chances later Thursday into Friday. Heights
then bounce back up as we head into next weekend which should lead
to noticeably warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR prevailing conditions through the period except for a brief
period of MVFR vsbys in fog in and around Kinross toward
daybreak. Some shower/thunderstorm potential very late in the
period, but with low coverage and low confidence in specific
timing have left it out of TAFs for this cycle. Will revisit in
future forecasts. In the interim, winds to become light and
variable overnight before increasing out of the south and
southeast Sunday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JHV