Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
485
FNUS52 KILM 061247
FWFILM
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
for Northeast South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
847 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today into Tue,
peaking each afternoon and early evening. This due to the
combination of several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating
and the daily sea breeze. Dry high pressure will build overhead
late Tue with well above normal temperatures Tue through Thu. A
strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorm late Thu
into Fri followed by high pressure and cooler temps next weekend.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is Moderate.
NCZ105>110-070500-
Inland Pender-Coastal Pender-Inland New Hanover-
Coastal New Hanover-Inland Brunswick-Coastal Brunswick-
Including the cities of Burgaw, Surf City, Wilmington, Masonboro,
Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Carolina Beach, Seagate,
Boiling Spring Lakes, Leland, Shallotte, Oak Island, Long Beach,
Southport, and Sunset Beach
847 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Today Tonight Tue
Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 30 30 40
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 85 66 88
Min/Max RH (%) 57 98 55
Wind20ft/Early (mph) S 6 SW 7 G18 SW 7
Wind20ft/Late (mph) S 9 G18 SW 7 SW 9 G19
Precip Amount 0.13 0.04 0.03
Precip Duration 2 1 2
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 73/0900 1900 71/0800
Dispersion Fair
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 3 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4100 5700
Transport Wind (mph) SW 17 W 20
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 69700 114000
ADI Early 50 Gen Good 45 Gen Good 68 Good
ADI Late 58 Gen Good 11 Poor 104 Very Good
Max LVORI Early 6 5 5
Max LVORI Late 1 5 2
Min VSBY Early 7 7 7
Min VSBY Late 6 Rain 7 7
Turner Stability B D B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 93 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 55 percent. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum
RH 95 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 57 percent.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
95 percent. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
78 percent. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
86 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
$$
NCZ087-096-099-070500-
Robeson-Bladen-Columbus-
Including the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, Bladenboro,
Whiteville, Tabor City, Chadbourn, and Lake Waccamaw
847 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Today Tonight Tue
Cloud Cover Mcldy Mcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 60 50 50
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 85 65 89
Min/Max RH (%) 58 100 51
Wind20ft/Early (mph) S 5 S 6 SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SW 7 SW 6 SW 8 G18
Precip Amount 0.14 0.13 0.02
Precip Duration 2 2 2
Precip Begin 9 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 70/0800 1900 68/0800
Dispersion Fair
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 3 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4200 5800
Transport Wind (mph) SW 15 W 20
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 63000 116000
ADI Early 48 Gen Good 28 Fair 57 Gen Good
ADI Late 56 Gen Good 11 Poor 115 Very Good
Max LVORI Early 8 6 6
Max LVORI Late 1 6 2
Min VSBY Early 7 7 7
Min VSBY Late 4 Rain 7 7
Turner Stability C D B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 92 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 50 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum
RH 93 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 53 percent.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
93 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 46 percent.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Cooler. Lows in the mid 50s.
Maximum RH 77 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 39 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
87 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
43 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ054>056-058-059-070500-
Coastal Horry-Inland Georgetown-Coastal Georgetown-Central Horry-
Northern Horry-
Including the cities of Myrtle Beach, Socastee,
North Myrtle Beach, Garden City, Little River, Andrews,
Georgetown, Murrells Inlet, Conway, Longs, Bucksport, Loris,
Green Sea, and Aynor
847 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Today Tonight Tue
Cloud Cover Pcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 40 40 30
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 84 66 88
Min/Max RH (%) 59 100 54
Wind20ft/Early (mph) S 5 S 6 SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) S 7 SW 6 SW 7 G18
Precip Amount 0.25 0.13 0.01
Precip Duration 2 1 2
Precip Begin 6 AM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 73/0900 1900 70/0800
Dispersion Fair
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 2 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4200 6400
Transport Wind (mph) SW 14 W 18
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 58800 115200
ADI Early 53 Gen Good 25 Fair 68 Good
ADI Late 48 Gen Good 10 Poor 121 Very Good
Max LVORI Early 9 6 7
Max LVORI Late 3 7 1
Min VSBY Early 7 7 7
Min VSBY Late 5 Rain 7 7
Turner Stability B D B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Maximum RH 94 percent.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 54 percent. Southwest
winds 10 to 15 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. Maximum
RH 93 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Minimum RH 55 percent.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
97 percent. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Cooler. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
78 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 42 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Maximum RH
87 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
48 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-070500-
Marlboro-Darlington-Dillon-Florence-Marion-Williamsburg-
Including the cities of Bennettsville, McColl, Hartsville,
Darlington, North Hartsville, Dillon, Florence, Marion, Mullins,
and Kingstree
847 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Today Tonight Tue
Cloud Cover Mcldy Pcldy Pcldy
Precip Chance (%) 60 50 40
Precip Type Tstms Tstms Tstms
LAL 3 3 3
Max/Min Temp 84 65 89
Min/Max RH (%) 60 100 51
Wind20ft/Early (mph) S 5 S 6 SW 6
Wind20ft/Late (mph) SW 6 SW 6 SW 7
Precip Amount 0.23 0.14 0.01
Precip Duration 2 2 2
Precip Begin 12 PM Continuing Continuing
Precip End Continuing Continuing Continuing
Inversion(Temp/Time) 72/0900 1900 68/0800
Dispersion Fair
Haines Index 3 3 3
DSI 3 3
Mixing Hgt (ft) 4200 5900
Transport Wind (mph) SW 13 W 20
Vent Rate (mph-ft) 54600 118000
ADI Early 45 Gen Good 24 Fair 60 Gen Good
ADI Late 54 Gen Good 10 Poor 124 Very Good
Max LVORI Early 8 7 6
Max LVORI Late 3 8 1
Min VSBY Early 7 7 7
Min VSBY Late 4 Rain 7 7
Turner Stability B D B
Remarks...None.
.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear with a 50 percent chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH 92 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Minimum RH 51 percent.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 70. Maximum RH
93 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs around 90. Minimum RH 54 percent. Southwest
winds 15 to 20 mph.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Maximum RH
96 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Minimum RH 48 percent.
West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Cooler. Lows in the mid 50s.
Maximum RH 79 percent. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Minimum RH 39 percent.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Maximum RH
90 percent. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Minimum RH
44 percent. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
$$
.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures below normal. Precipitation near normal.
$$
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
VENTILATION RATE BURN CATEGORY VENTILATION RATE
===================================================================
NOT USED 0 0 TO 14759
0 TO 17249 1 14760 TO 33499
17250 TO 34499 2 33500 TO 44999
34500 TO 51749 3 45000 TO 59999
51750 TO 68999 4 60000 TO 111999
69000 OR GREATER 5 112000 OR GREATER
SC USERS NC USERS
===================================================================
FORECAST SURFACE WIND DISPERSION FORECAST SURFACE WIND
===================================================================
STAGNANT NEAR CALM
CALM VERY POOR 2 TO 4 MPH
2 TO 5 MPH POOR 5 TO 8 MPH
6 TO 8 MPH FAIR 9 TO 12 MPH
9 TO 13 MPH GOOD GREATER THAN 12 MPH
14 MPH OR MORE EXCELLENT
ADI is Atmospheric Dispersion Index by LAVDAS.
LVORI is Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index.
$$