645
FNUS73 KMPX 081614
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Watline Trail...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1114 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CDT on May 08.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For Watline Trail, relative humidity values will
fall to 40-45% this afternoon with temperatures warming into the
lower 70s. Winds will become easterly, gradually increasing to
around 10 mph through this morning. A few gusts up to 20 mph are
possible during the afternoon. About a 40% chance of a shower or
thunderstorm also exists this afternoon. However, a better chance
for showers and thunderstorms (50-60%) exists this evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Temperature.........67 at ignition...Max 71.
RH..................54 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 12 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds 12 to 14 mph shifting to the
                    south late in the afternoon, then shifting to
                    the east around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /46300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /107200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 6300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 20 mph shifting to the east
                    around 14 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  CDY MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....    SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............67  68  69  70  71  71  68  64  61  59  57  55
RH..............54  51  47  42  44  44  47  56  67  72  77  80
20 FT wind dir..E   SE  SE  SE  S   E   NE  NE  N   N   NW  N
20 FT wind spd..12  14  13  13  9   8   8   9   7   8   9   8
20 FT wind gust.17  21  20  20  14  13  12  14  10  13  14  12
Mix hgt (kft)...3.3 4.4 6.3 4.6 3.2 2.4 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.E   SE  S   S   SE  E   NE  NE  NE  NE  N   NE
Transp wind spd.16  20  20  18  14  14  14  15  12  14  15  13
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers in the
                    evening. Chance of thunderstorms through the
                    night. Rain showers likely overnight.
Temperature.........Min 47.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    north 8 to 12 mph in the late evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening and
                    overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (15900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5200 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. Chance of
                    rain showers in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (67600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Grunzke
Requested by...Brandon Roskamp
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413509.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL brandon.roskamp@state.mn.us