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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 160709
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
309 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Another weak cold front moves across the region by this evening
but with little in the way of noticeable effects other than
some gusty winds. High pressure then builds in through Friday.
Rain showers and possible this weekend with a cold front.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A short wave trough pushes through northern New England today
allowing for another weak cold front to move across the region.
The air mass ahead of the front is dry so we only expect some
clouds but no rainfall. Winds will however become gusty with
westerlies gusting around 25 MPH with a few 30 MPH gusts
possible.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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Winds quickly diminish this evening as high pressure slides
down from the northwest. Low temperatures have been based
largely on a blend of the MOS guidance. Mostly clear skies
expected except for some mountain strato-cu.

High pressure dominates Wed with mostly sunny skies except for
perhaps some late day cirrus moving into southern zones.
Otherwise, winds will be much lighter with an afternoon
seabreeze expected.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Overview: Warm pattern continues before a cold front brings the
chance of rain and slightly cooler temps Friday into Saturday.

Details: Low pressure will be occluding over the western Great
Lakes Wednesday evening, with a elongated warm front reaching
towards the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will have good moisture
with it and guidance depicts widespread showers to the SW of the
CWA overnight. Strong high pressure to the NW will have been
continuing advection of dry air at the surface and upper levels
across the area, so the incoming moisture will have to contend
with that. Guidance has been consistent in suggesting a
resulting mid deck of clouds easily pushing into the area into
the day Thursday, but model soundings really hold low level dry
air steadfast. Thus have lowered suggested NBM PoPs, focusing
the chance of any showers towards Thursday evening across SW and
west NH. This will only be enabled as the parent low draws
north and the boundary almost tilts poleward along the VT/NH
border. Will keep these at slight chance/chance PoPs for now.
Dry air aloft could limit this to just a period of drizzle or
scattered sprinkles. Daytime highs may be greatest across the
Kennebec Valley as clouds take longer to move in here. Highs
around 60 will be possible here, with low to mid 50s to the SW.

With flow finally turning out of the SE, Thursday night should
be fairly mild. Will see clouds expand NE with time, but precip
chances again wane as the front washes out. Friday should warm
nicely, with rain chances again building into the late afternoon
and overnight hours. This round looks at least more certain
with areal coverage, but QPF remains light as cold front passes
through. This will likely be enough to dampen the surface into
Saturday morning while some showers continue to develop out of
the mountains through the afternoon.

Remainder of the weekend into early next week looks a couple
degrees cooler, but mostly dry conditions seem possible
considering broad high pressure moving east to start the week.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR conditions expected all terminals today. Any
fog in the CT valley will burn off early on. NWly winds gust up
to 25 kt today, but winds will be lighter Wednesday. A seabreeze
is expected on Wednesday afternoon, especially from PWM on
southward.

Long Term...VFR Wed night and Thurs morning. Cigs do begin to
lower Thurs evening and overnight. MVFR looks likely, but can`t
rule out pockets of IFR at this range. Dry air near surface
should promote little vis impact, although some SHRA or drizzle
can`t be ruled out in the evening. More prominent area of
showers Friday evening and overnight into Sat AM along a cold
front moving through.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...Conditions remain below SCA today through Wednesday
most waters. However, one exception may be nearshore waters
today where overland mixing may allow for a few 25 kt gusts.

Long Term...Below SCA conditions expected. Cold front will pass
over the waters Thursday night into Friday morning with showers.
Otherwise, waves remain 2 to 3 ft, with gusts less than 20 kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell