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588
FXUS61 KGYX 281934
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
334 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front drops south through the area this evening bringing
a round of showers with embedded thunder. High pressure builds
in Monday for fair weather. A frontal system approaches from the
west Tuesday bringing showers into Wednesday. Ridging builds
over the eastern US during the second half of the week, although
disturbances moving over the ridge will bring chances for
showers at times into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Mostly clear skies across southern New Hampshire has allowed for
temperatures to rise into the low 70s while much of Maine
remains overcast with temperatures in the 50s. A cold front is
pressing southward through northern VT and northern NH and this
front will bring chances for showers and isolated thunder
through this evening. Instability is lacking with the only
notable effect of convection being some brief heavier rainfall
rates. Models have generally struggled with timing and placement
of showers and thunder thus far, with the current forecast
bringing the best chance for thunder across NH in SW Maine.

Showers will end around midnight and with recent rainfall
coupled with a period of light winds and subsidence behind the
front there is potential for patchy fog. NW winds will start to
increase during the pre-dawn hours that will help to mix out any
patchy fog. Lows will range from near 40 degrees across the
north to mid 40s across the rest of Maine to the mid 50s across
southern NH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Monday is shaping up to be a nice day as high pressure builds in
from the north. Steady north winds will help keep a sea breeze
from advecting cooler air into the coast with highs climbing
into the mid 60s for much of the area south of the mountains and
pushing low 70s in southern NH. Across the far north highs will
be near 60 degrees.

Mostly clear skies and drier air moving in for Monday night will
allow for lows into the low 30s across north eastern zones.
Farther south and west lows will range from the upper 30s to
upper 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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-----------------------------------------------------------------
 Summary:

*More seasonable temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, with
 showers moving through in the Tues-Wednesday morning
 timeframe. Accumulations will be light.

*Tranquil Wednesday and Thursday with warmer temps returning
 on Thursday and possibly more unsettled weather returning for
 the Fri- Sun time frame.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
 Discussion:

A remnant mid-latitude cyclone over the Great Lakes could bring
some showers to the region Tuesday afternoon through daybreak
Wednesday. Weak high pressure and a building ridge follow suit,
bringing a pleasant but much warmer Thursday. Clouds increase
overnight Thursday into Friday as more unsettled weather enters
the region. High temperatures Friday will be similar to
Thursdays, maybe a touch cooler in more showery locations.
Showers could continue through much of the day Saturday as well.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term...An area of showers with embedded thunder across
northern VT and northern NH will track SSE this evening bringing
the potential for a couple hours of MVFR conditions in lowering
cigs and reduced visby. There remains a low chance (<20%) for
some thunder, while confidence is not yet high enough to put in
the TAF. Showers end around 05Z with additional potential for
MVFR as patchy fog may form before northerly winds help mix out
low level moisture around 10Z. Thereafter VFR likely prevails
Monday through Monday night.

Long Term...
Showers are likely Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with some
occasional MVFR CIGS expected. No notable restrictions expected
on Wednesday and Thursday, but occasional periods of MVFR CIGs
may return Thursday night and Friday as more showers move
through the area.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...A front drops south into the waters this evening
bring scattered showers with embedded thunder. Winds and seas
will remain below SCA thresholds tonight through Monday night
with light northerly winds developing during the pre-dawn hours
Monday behind the front.

Long Term...
Some showers are expected Tuesday with winds up to
15kts in the morning, but gradually simmering through the day.
Seas of 2-3 ft expected through the rest of this week. No SCA
issuance expected. Light and variable winds are expected on
Wednesday, with light southerly winds on Thursday.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Palmer
NEAR / SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Palmer