Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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227
FXUS64 KHGX 190242
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
942 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.UPDATE...
A little bit of action early this evening as a cluster of
thunderstorms slowed over southern Harris...northern Fort Bend
and Brazoria Counties and produced a quick 2 to nearly 5 inches
of rain in about two hours. These high rainfall rates lead to
minor street flooding/ponding from downtown Houston across southeast
Houston through the 8 PM hour. This first mentionable post-Harvey
thunderstorm activity quickly weakened through 8 PM hour and radar
has since become very quiet. Lower rain chances forecast Tuesday
as a relatively drier air mass just offshore of the upper Texas
coast comes onshore tomorrow. Flat zonal upper ridging with
surface high pressure parked over the northern Gulf should aid in
suppressing areawide TSRA activity. Anticipating more localized
-TSRA tomorrow (along local breezes?) with 30% areal coverage or
less from returning late morning through afternoon convection. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017/

AVIATION...
Cluster of storms, producing heavy rain (lightning and reduced
visibility) around the Hobby and Sugarland terminals will last
for another hour or two. Do expect all precip to taper off fairly
quickly with the loss of heating. VFR conditions for the remainder
of the evening. But with wet ground from todays precip, along with
light wind and mclr skies, would anticipate some fog to develop.
Confidence on timing/location/significance isn`t all that high but
initial thoughts are reflected in the TAFs. Suspect they may need
to be amended to be more pessimistic if anything. Otherwise, not
quite as much available moisture is expected on Tue compared to
today. So although we`ll probably see some sct tstms with daytime
heating, areal coverage probably won`t be as widespread. Similar
pattern should exist going into midweek. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  91  74  93  75 /  10  20  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)              75  90  76  89  76 /  40  30  10  50  10
Galveston (GLS)            79  88  80  88  79 /  20  20  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...31



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