Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 212023
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
323 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tropical Storm Cindy continues heading toward the TX/LA border area
with a landfall still anticipated to happen tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms have begun moving into the Chambers County-Galveston
Bay-Bolivar Peninsula area. Breezy/gusty north to northeast winds
this afternoon (generally running around 15 to 25 mph inland and
25 to 30 mph coast) will shift to the northwest and west overnight
as the circulation center works its way onshore. Look for periods
of showers and thunderstorms to move westward into the area overnight
with the best chances and highest amounts possibly setting up across
parts of our far eastern counties (Chambers/Liberty/San Jacinto/Polk).
Rainfall totals tonight through Thursday should range from around/under
1/4 inch out west to 1 to 3 inches out east, and higher amounts are
possible in/around those far eastern counties listed mentioned above
where WPC is currently carrying a slight risk of excessive rainfall.
Still looking for rain chances to persist for the end of the week,
on into the weekend, and into the start of next week as precipitable
water values remain very high under a persistent onshore flow while
a weak frontal boundary sags southward into our area.  42
&&

.MARINE...
Overview and winds:  Still looking at tropical storm force winds to
develop over the marine areas tonight. Around 2:50 PM, a platform
just outside our marine zones at the East Breaks at 393 feet
recorded a wind of 39 gust to 45 knots. Even though it is way above
the surface, it does show the potential for tropical storm force
wind gusts in showers and storms currently moving through the marine
areas. No change in the warning/advisory configurations.

Tides/seas:  Tides have gradually been piling up against the islands
and peninsulas on the lower sides of the bays. For example, Rollover
Pass on the bayside of the Bolivar Peninsula has tides over 3 feet,
while Pier 21 was between 3.9 and 4 feet since noon time. Even along
the coast with the downside of the earlier high tide, tide levels
at 2:48 PM were near 4 feet at the Galveston Bay Entrance and 3.4
feet at Freeport. Do expect some subsiding levels during the times
of low tide later this evening. However, tide levels will rise back
up to possibly reach levels seen earlier today as Cindy makes
landfall. Have received reports of tidal flooding on portions of the
Strand in Galveston -- on the bayside of the island.

Seas at buoy 42035 and 42019 were 7 to 12 feet with a period of 10
to 11 seconds early this afternoon. Wave runup combined with the
rough seas and high tides will continue to provide a flood potential
most certainty in the areas under the tropical storm warning and
could affect the Blue Water Highway further down the coast.
Currently have a coastal flood advisory in effect for Brazoria
County through 4:00 PM and will look to see if this needs to be
extended.

Have not had any indications of low water problems up in the Ship
Channel yet. Manchester actually had water levels about 1.5 feet
above the Mean Lower Water Levels. Will continue to monitor this
possibility later tonight. Still a complicated scenario.

As was discussed earlier, as Cindy moves inland, winds will
gradually back to the west on Thursday then to the south Thursday
night. Moderate onshore winds will then persist into the weekend.

40

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      74  91  76  93  77 /  30  60  40  30  30
Houston (IAH)              76  86  77  92  78 /  70  70  40  50  30
Galveston (GLS)            78  85  82  90  82 /  80  70  50  60  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Chambers...
     Galveston...Harris...Liberty.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for the
     following zones: Brazoria.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for the following
     zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
     Channel out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to
     the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
     from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...
     Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...40



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