Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 171211
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
711 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Upper ridging equates to VFR. Brief periods of early morning western
to northwestern air field MVFR ceilings will quickly mix out to a
few to scattered cumulus deck. A south to southwest breeze that
will become gusty during the afternoon...especially during the mid
to late afternoon hours. Similar conditions early Sunday as near
sunrise scattered decks begin to fill in and lower to MVFR...the
highest probability of this occurring will be over the further
inland hubs of CLL...UTS...and CXO from around 5 AM through 9 AM.
31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A dry and warm weekend is still on schedule across Southeast Texas.
We are off to a warm start already, with 4 AM temperatures in the mid
to upper 70s inland and in the lower 80s at the coast. Any early morning
low clouds will lift and burn off after sunrise, and expect much of
the area to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy for the remainder of the
day. High temperatures are expected to peak at around 90 at the coast
and in the lower to mid 90s inland with late morning through afternoon
heat index values averaging around 105. Similar conditions are expected
on Sunday. Low rain chances are back in our forecast beginning late
Sunday night through early morning across parts of our northern counties
as a frontal boundary sags southward toward our area. The mid/upper
level ridge takes control as we start out the upcoming week, and it
is expected to keep a majority of the area dry and warm. As the week
progresses, we`ll keep things on the warm and mostly dry side and
watch how the potential tropical cyclone develops and moves out of
the northwest Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico. Until models
begin to show a little more consistency and agreement on this system,
will continue leaning toward the mid/upper level ridge keeping
much of Southeast Texas warm and dry. 42

MARINE...
Upper ridging across Texas with a surface high over the north
central Gulf will maintain a moderate onshore flow pattern and dry
conditions through the weekend. The onshore pressure gradient is
tight enough between this Gulf high and low Panhandle pressure to
keep caution level wind magnitudes in play through the day over near
4 foot seas. A weak frontal boundary moving in from the north
northeast Monday will cause onshore winds to go light and variable.

An area of disturbed weather over the Yucatan Peninsula/Bay of
Campeche region may ultimately develop into a tropical cyclone or
just remain a tropical wave as it takes a north jog into the Gulf
during Tuesday. The extreme amount of uncertainty on the evolution of
this system has placed low confidence on the wind and wave forecast
from Tuesday onward. As of now...the forecast is for this system to
remain south over the Bay of Campeche and this will place local area
Caution level northeasterly to easterly winds over 3 to 5 foot wave
heights both Tuesday and Wednesday. Generally light onshore
winds...with a slight overnight strengthening...will occur from
Thursday on into next weekend. Mid to late week slight to low end
precipitation chances to account for the northern periphery of a
south(west)ern Gulf-positioned tropical wave disturbance/depression/storm. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      97  77  96  76  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)              96  78  95  76  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            89  82  90  81  90 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Sunday morning for
     the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
     Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
     Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
     Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31



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