Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 222051
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Precipitation not quite as widespread across SE TX this afternoon
(per earlier expectations)...likely owing to the extensive clouds
and persistent storms offshore (limiting stability and preventing
decent inflow respectively). While temperatures have been a touch
lower than yesterday, the higher dewpoints are keeping heat index
values elevated (100-106F) so far today.

With the upper low lingering around the coast between GLS and LCH
through tomorrow am a bit hesitant to lower POPS too much...espe-
cially for our eastern and coastal counties. Progged PWs from 2.0
to 2.2 inches do appear supportive of some decent rains tomorrow.

However...do agree that the main issue with the upcoming forecast
could be the rising heat/heat indicies for next week. As this low
washes out, we should see the upper ridge out west begin building
east into the Central/Southern Plains. Rain chances will decrease
starting Monday...save for some isolated development at/along the
seabreeze. Daytime highs are progged to be in the upper 90/around
100 for central/northern parts of our CWA, and with dewpoints re-
maining in the 70s, this could translate to heat index values at/
near our heat advisory criteria of 108 degrees. 41

&&

.MARINE...
The upper level low pressure system is continuing to fill into the
region and aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Although coverage this afternoon has diminished in
comparison to this mornings convection, lingering showers and an
isolated thunderstorm or two can be expected over the waters through
the remainder of this evening. Gusty winds can also be anticipated
with these stronger storms. Onshore flow overnight will begin to
increase in wind speed as the pressure gradient tightens over SE TX
Sunday into Monday. Winds should increase to between 10-15 knots
tonight and hold through Sunday. Sunday night into Monday winds
again will pick up in speed and stay closer to 15 knots before
diminishing late morning on Monday. Therefore, we will be flirting
with SCEC criteria while this tighter pressure gradient holds place.
Seas will also pick up during this time from 2 feet to 2-4 feet. By
Tuesday an area of high pressure begins to build in resulting in a
lowering in wave height and weaker onshore flow. Conditions will
also be drier through next Friday.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      78  95  77  98  76 /  20  30  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)              80  91  80  96  78 /  30  50  30  20  10
Galveston (GLS)            82  88  84  91  82 /  30  50  20  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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