990
FXUS64 KHGX 021201
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
701 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The bulk of the widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight have re-
mained mostly north of a line from Lake Somerville to Lake Livingston.
Unfortunately, this means that a lot of the same locations that got a
bunch of rains earlier this week are getting yet another round. These
storms (the initial development here along with the western activity,
which is finally moving into the CWA), are expected to organize a bit
more before finally tracking off to the east by mid to late morning.
However, in its wake the associated frontal/outlflow/surface boundary
will be left lingering across the FA. And so, with some daytime heat-
ing, we could see more development later this afternoon. We could get
another break from the storms by this evening, but hi-res models seem
to be indicating yet another round of widespread showers and thunder-
storms for late tonight through early Fri morning. Current models are
tracking these storms more across the central and southern CWA during
this period.

So, with this in mind, have extended the Flood Watch through Fri aft-
ernoon. This watch will likely be tweaked by later shifts...mainly to
include counties south of the current watch. If all this goes accord-
ing to the plan, we may see improving conditions (that is, decreasing
POPs) by late Fri afternoon/evening. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

On Saturday afternoon, chance for showers and thunderstorms are
still on the table, mainly for the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region as another disturbance passes just to the north of the
region. Although there is some capping in place during the morning
hours, forecast sounding show it decreasing in the afternoon, and
with fairly good instability, we could see some isolated to
scattered activity developing over the aforementioned region. A
similar set up is progged for Sunday, with chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north of I-10. We might even have the
combination of locally driven storms along with the storms
developing over Central Texas moving into our northern counties.

It is important to note that with all the expected rainfall for
today and Friday, some of these locations may have very saturated
soils along with some ongoing localized area flooding and river
flooding. Therefore, any additional heavy rainfall could result in
additional minor flooding along with further rises in creeks, small
streams, and rivers. Remember to never pass through flooded
roadways.

Things will be settling down more next week as mid to upper level
ridging begins to build over Southeast Texas. Fairly tranquil
conditions can be expected Monday into Wednesday but conditions will
be warming up each day and highs will be reaching the upper 80s to
low 90s with some locations possibly in the mid 90s by midweek. PWs
will range between 1.3 to 1.8 inches and with dewpoints mainly in
the low 70s, conditions will feel even warmer as well as muggy. In
fact, might even see heat indices in the low 100s by midweek.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move near/around
CXO, IAH, HOU within the next hour or so. Expect gusty erratic
winds and reduced visibility with this line of storms. Showers and
thunderstorms will gradually diminish from the northwest during
the morning hours; though a few lingering showers or storms will
still be possible in the afternoon. Another round of TSRA will be
possible late tonight. Have kept VCTS/PROB30 for this package
given moderate confidence in location and timing. A mix of MVFR to
VFR ceilings is expected during the day, followed by MVFR to IFR
conditions at night.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Generally moderate onshore winds will prevail through much of the
forecast period. Winds today may reach Advisory levels at times, but
are expected to be mainly between 15-20 knots. For the next several
days, seas will be between 4 and 6 feet over the offshore waters and
between 2 and 5 feet over the nearshore waters. Bays may be slightly
choppy at times. Also, strong rip currents along the Gulf facing
beaches could develop at times.

There is a chance for showers and storms, some could become strong,
through Friday. During the weekend, much of the rainfall is expected
to remain inland. Tranquil weather conditions expected next week as
mid to upper level ridging builds over the region.

24

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

There is ongoing river flooding over parts of Southeast Texas,
particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers.
The following river points continue to remain at or above flood
stage as of this morning:

- Trinity River (Liberty): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Navasota River (Normangee): Minor Flood Stage

Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and
upstream, may result in further water level rises and prolonged
river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from your local
officials and to never travel through flooded areas or  roadways.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the
new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood
threat continues.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  70  82  70 /  90  60  50  10
Houston (IAH)  84  72  82  72 /  50  50  60  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  73  79  73 /  40  50  40  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>213-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24