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000
FXUS66 KHNX 180455
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
955 PM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT IN THE MOJAVE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN STEADY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH NEAR AND JUST ABOVE
MOJAVE ALONG HWY 58.

A RELATIVELY COOL EVENING IS IN STORE FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CA INTERIOR. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INLAND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH TO COOL US DOWN AGAIN IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
OF THE CWFA. BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN KERN
COUNTY WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO NEAR 45 MPH AT TIMES IN THE
VICINITY OF MOJAVE.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED OVER THE SIERRA TODAY. NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY YET THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY WILL WARM BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE WARM-UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO AFFECT THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY...WEAKENING THE RIDGE
OVER CALIFORNIA AND INCREASING WINDS. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING NEARLY 10
DEGREES FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY AND THEN REMAINING COOL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA.

THE 12Z ECMWF BEGINS TO LIFT THE LOW NORTHEAST AND OUT OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WHICH WOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A SLOW WARMUP AGAIN. HOWEVER THE GFS HOLDS
THE TROUGH BACK OVER CALIFORNIA THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE TEHACHAPI MTNS THROUGH 07Z
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-17      106:2009     64:2011     73:2008     44:1974
KFAT 05-18      103:2008     63:1994     73:2008     42:1893
KFAT 05-19      103:2008     63:1972     70:2009     42:1896

KBFL 05-17      105:2009     68:1998     73:2009     41:1906
KBFL 05-18      102:2009     68:2011     76:1973     41:1893
KBFL 05-19      101:1954     65:1916     73:1979     38:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT CAZ099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...MOLINA
PREV DISCUSSION...BEAN
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD