Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
443 FXUS66 KHNX 050905 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 205 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Moderate to major winter storm impacts are expected in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet through this morning due to blowing snow and accumulated snow amounts of 12 to 24 inches. 2. Damaging wind gusts are anticipated along the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon through this evening. 3. A warming trend is expected Monday through Saturday. Most of the San Joaquin Valley has a 35-55% chance of reaching highs of at least 90*F by Friday. && .DISCUSSION...A late season storm which brought widespread precipitation to our area continues to produce impacts as radar imagery continues to show a band of light precipitation along the cold frontal boundary over eastern Tulare and central Kern Counties. Radar is also showing some isolated showers from Fresno County northward with the snow level between 3000 and 4000 feet in the colder airmass behind the front. Showers remain possible through this morning so a Winter Storm Warning will continue over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada until 800 am PDT this morning. NBM guidance continues to indicate that precipitation across our area should end by late this morning. This system has also prodcued strong winds some of the exposed ridge tops in the Sierra Nevada as well as along the Mojave Desert slopes. Several stations in eastern Kern County have measured gusts exceeding 45 mph with a few locations measuring gusts in excess of 60 mph. Although wind have been decreasing overnight, winds are expected to pick up again this afternoon and evening along the Mojave Desert Slopes, Indian Wells Valley and Mojave Desert areas and the current wind highlights will remain in place until 1100 pm PDT this evening. Another shortwave system moving north of area on Monday will bring another period of increased onshore p-grads Monday evening and provide for another round of gusty winds along the Mojave Desert Slopes. Meanwhile temperatures across most of our area are currently running 10 to 20 DEG F below yday at this time as a modified polar airmass has pushed into central CA behind the cold front. As a result, maximum temperatures today are expected to be 12 to 15 DEG F below daily climatological normals across most of our CWFA today. Some airmass modification is expected to begin by Monday as an upper ridge begins to amplify offshore. This will bring a slow upward trend in temperatures each day next week with temperatures rebounding to near normal levels by Wednesday. The ensembles are in fairly good agreement for the latter portion of the week with continued dry weather and temperatures rising to above normal levels as the ensemble means are showing high pressure strengthening over the area. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance is a 35 to 55 PoE of 90 DEG F across most of the San Joaquin Valley by Friday. && .AVIATION...Widespread MVFR with areas of mountain obscuring IFR in the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains in low clouds and precipitation thru 18Z Sun with gradual improvement to VFR by 06Z Mon. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ338. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337-339. Winter Storm Warning above 6000 feet until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ323-326>330. && $$ public/avivation/fire wx...DAS idss...BS weather.gov/hanford