698
FXUS62 KFFC 031756
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
156 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

High pressure at the surface will continue through the period. The
mid levels will be a bit active with several shortwaves impacting
the CWA through the short term period of the forecast.

500mb analysis shows ridging along the eastern seaboard with SW flow
across much of GA. A couple of shortwaves are noted within the flow,
one across far NE MS/NW AL, one across the ARKLAMISS and two
stronger ones across across eastern TX/OK. Each one of these waves
will bring the potential for shra and tsra to the CWA through the
short term. Models do have trouble initializing these system, which
impacts timing. The early morning shortwave could bring isolated
shra to portions of north GA early this morning. Little, if any,
measurable rainfall is is likely. The second shortwave, back over
the ARKLAMISS, will most likely move through during the afternoon,
helping to fire/sustain isold/scat convection this afternoon and
evening. The stronger shortwaves back across TX/OK will continue to
move east through the period within a slightly negatively tilted
trough. This feature will likely impact the CWA on Saturday,
bringing greater coverage of storms than today.

With PWATs in excess of 1.5" and very light BL winds (slow
movement), thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday will be capable
of producing locally heavy rainfall. A few strong thunderstorms will
be possible this afternoon and Saturday. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning will be the primary hazards. An isolated severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either day, but widespread severe
weather is not anticipated.

High temps the next couple of days will run 5 to 10 degrees above
normal.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

A fairly unsettled period will be ongoing at the start of the
extended forecast period. Another in a series of shortwave
disturbances within the midlevel near-zonal flow will traverse the
region on Sunday and again on Monday, bringing continued elevated
scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm coverage. Coverage
will be diurnally enhanced, though some activity is likely to linger
into at least through the evening. The threat for severe weather
remains through this time given little in the way of dynamic support.

A drier time frame then returns by Tuesday into midweek as ridging
increases aloft with any isolated PoPs relegated to far north
Georgia through Wednesday. Temperatures will respond in kind with
the warmest days of the week expected Tuesday-Thursday. High
temperatures nudging the 90 degree mark are likely in many areas by
Wednesday. Record highs appear unlikely at this juncture, but values
will still be running some 10 degrees above normal for early May.

The shortwave ridging looks to break down by the end of the week
with additional shortwave disturbances more likely to bring
increasing rain chances again by the end of the period.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

VFR conds expected thru the aftn. Isold TSRA psbl at northern TAF
sites from 19-24Z. Winds will be SW/SSW at 5-8kts through 00Z both
today and tomorrow, becoming light out of the SE/VRB at times
overnight tonight. Low-MVFR to IFR cigs and MFVR vsbys psbl in
heaviest pcpn from 10-16Z, then MVFR to low-VFR cigs and -SHRA to
linger thru remainder of TAF pd. TSRA psbl once again Saturday
aftn, with best window from 18-23Z.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence morning ceiling progression and precipitation
timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  78  62  84 /  40  70  50  60
Atlanta         66  79  64  84 /  50  70  40  60
Blairsville     61  73  59  78 /  70  80  50  70
Cartersville    63  79  61  84 /  50  60  40  60
Columbus        67  86  66  88 /  40  40  30  40
Gainesville     64  76  64  82 /  40  70  50  60
Macon           66  82  64  86 /  30  60  40  50
Rome            64  79  62  85 /  60  60  40  60
Peachtree City  64  82  63  85 /  50  60  30  50
Vidalia         68  82  66  86 /  40  50  30  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...96