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000
FXUS64 KHUN 230859
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
359 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE GREATER NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN PER UPPER AIR DATA ANALYSIS. A BLOCKING PATTERN WAS SETTING
UP...WITH ITS UPPER LOWS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM THE TEXAS COAST
TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES LOW
WERE ROTATING AROUND IT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS. OTHER CLOUDS WERE ALONG A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THOSE CLOUDS WERE A BIT DIFFICULT TO VIEW...DUE
TO A GOES-EAST SATELLITE OUTAGE. WHILE TECH SUPPORT HOPEFULLY WILL
RESTORE IT TO OPERATIONAL STATUS...GOES-14 IS BEING TAKEN OUT OF
STORAGE AND SHOULD BEGIN IMAGE/SOUNDING SCANS SOON.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT AFFECTED THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON WED HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF HERE...NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
KHTX PRECIP DETECTION RING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL AND STILL HIGH MOISTURE VALUES HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY
FOG TO BEGIN FORMING OVER PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS THUS FAR HAVE COOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SSW FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN TO FAR NW
TENNESSEE. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY...
REACHING NW ALABAMA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BE LOCATED SE OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING. FOR MOST OF THE AREA...NO
WEATHER OF CONSEQUENCE IS FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER OVER ITS NORTHERN
EXTENT (CLOSER TO THE BETTER UPWARD FORCING)...SOME SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA (EAST OF HUNTSVILLE)
AND OUR MIDDLE TENNESSEE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO END THIS
WORKWEEK. AFTER HIGHS NEARING 90 THE OTHER DAY...HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL ONLY WARM INTO LOW/MID 70S...AND MID/UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY.
LOWS TEMPS SAT MORNING WILL COOL INTO THE MID 40S...AND BE IN THE
LOWER 50S SUN MORNING. DAILY HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL
RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY SUNDAY...AND WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY TO THE MID WEEK.

FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS
CONCERNING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
23/0000Z GFS STAYED ON A DRY PATH...WHILE THE ECMWF WAS HINTING AT
SHOWERS. WITH THE ECMWF HAVING A DECENT TRACK RECORD FURTHER OUT...
HAVE KEPT LOWER END POPS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND ON TUESDAY.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING A FEED OF MOISTURE ROUNDING HIGH PRESSURE EAST
OF VA/NC...WHILE THE GFS KEPT THIS MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE GULF.

RSB

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1234 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE FOG
FORMATION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/ADDL FUEL
REQUIRED BTWN 08-12Z. THEN, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED (13G20KTS) AS A SFC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    83  55  76  47 /  10  10   0   0
SHOALS        82  55  75  47 /  10  10   0   0
VINEMONT      80  53  75  46 /  10  10   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  80  53  71  43 /  20  10   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   80  54  73  46 /  10  10   0   0
FORT PAYNE    82  53  74  43 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.