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000
FXUS64 KHUN 220255
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
955 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

A rather strong mid-level vort max (within the base of a broader
longwave trough across eastern North America) will continue to dig
southeastward through the TN Valley this evening and into western
portions of NC/SC by 12Z Monday. Broken mid/high-level clouds
attendant to the vort max have cleared most of the local area (as
of this writing), with clear skies and low dewpoints favorable for
radiational cooling overnight. However, latest model guidance
suggests that a 3-4 mb pressure gradient will exist for much of
the night to the east of a surface high drifting east-
southeastward through the Red River Valley of OK/TX, and this
should maintain sufficient mixing within the boundary layer to
produce NNW winds of 5-10 MPH (that may only briefly diminish
around sunrise). Thus, we expect coverage of frost during the
early morning hours to be greatest across the Frost Advisory area
(our southern Middle TN counties), where temps will be in the m30s
(along with dewpoints in the u20s-l30s). Although wind-sheltered
locations further to the south/west may indeed experience
development of patchy frost briefly around sunrise, we have no
plans to expand the advisory at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

As we head into the upcoming work week, high pressure continues
to build off to our west. Upper level ridging amplifies across the
Plains resulting in a more zonal flow across the Southeast. This
will make for a beautiful first half of the week with ample
sunshine and seasonal temperatures with afternoon highs in the
upper 60s on Monday and mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak
front attempts to drop south across the Ohio River Valley on
Wednesday, but latest ensemble guidance has it stall just to our
north. Plus with the lack of moisture, even if it dips further
south, rain chances appear quite low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An upper ridge axis will build amplify across the region Thursday
and Friday. Cloud cover ahead of a low pressure system well to the
west will filter back into the region, especially by Friday
However, deep southerly flow (combined with sufficient breaks of
sunshine) will help push highs back into the mid 70s on Thursday
and the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday and Saturday. A
pronounced longwave trough over the western United States will
slowly progress eastward late this week into the weekend. This
will be the next feature to watch as it may bring our next decent
chances for showers/storms this weekend and/or early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some mid/high
CIGS are expected this evening before pushing east of the terminals
by 4Z. Winds should remain around 10 gusting to around 15 knots
into the early evening hours before becoming lighter, but still
remaining between 5 and 10 knots. We will have to watch near the
KMSL terminal if winds become just light enough towards daybreak
for any fog development.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...GH
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...KTW