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000
FXUS64 KHUN 161728
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 938 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A broad warm sectored airmass will exist today across much of the
Southeast, as upper ridging is slowly pushed east by a closed
upper low tracking through the northern Plains. Will see a
temporary decrease in cloud cover this afternoon, and southerly
flow will keep highs in the low to mid 80s once again today.
Southerly winds will also increase through the day as a tightening
pressure gradient develops in response to the previously
mentioned upper low. Dry weather is forecast to persist through
the daytime hours, although a few sprinkles may occur given the
amount of moisture being advected into the area. Only minor
changes were made to sky cover during the morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The cyclone will continue to pivot northeast into the western
Great Lakes region tonight into Wednesday. It is becoming more and
more apparent that the cold front will not reach the local area.
Instead, showers and thunderstorms will align itself with the
weakening low level jet axis late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Bulk shear values of 40-50kt will still be present, so won`t rule
out a few stronger storms. But QG forcing will be rather
unsubstantial, so not looking for a very organized event.

Thursday should be mainly dry and very warm again in advance of
the cold front that will pass through the region Thursday night
into early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will occur
along the front as a shortwave jets east across the Ozarks into
KY/TN. This may also pose a low end threat of strong to severe
storms, mainly just to our north where stronger wind profiles will
exist.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The forecast over the weekend is a bit messy with the frontal
boundary shifting into the deep South. Shortwaves within the
basically zonal flow across the southern U.S. will produce
multiple areas of rain and thunderstorms, particularly just to our
south. For our area, rain chances will be "medium" or in the
30-50% range. A stronger shortwave will eventually drop southeast
through the main upper trough position across the north central
and northeast U.S. Sunday into early Monday, sweeping the rain
chances away to the east. This will bring a somewhat dramatic cool
down (at least comparably to the 80s we are seeing now). Highs
Sunday will only be in the lower to middle 60s, then recover to
the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday after morning lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through much of the
overnight hours, with increasing chances for rain and storms
around 8z near KMSL and 11z near KHSV. In the meantime, expect
scattered high clouds and gusty southerly winds, with gusts up to
20kts possible at times through the TAF period. Reductions to
MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible during heavier showers/storms
Wednesday morning.


&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...25