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000
FXUS64 KHUN 152250 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
550 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 206 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND H5 RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE CONUS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY DOMINATING MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. UPPER LEVEL
LOWS ARE LINED UP IN SUCCESSION MARCHING ACROSS THE SRN CANADIAN
PROVINCES, WITH SEVERAL OTHER KINKS IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOTED AROUND
THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC, AND CLOSER TO HOME, HIGH
PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIAS, WITH THE RECENTLY
DEPARTED COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE NRN GOMEX. OTHER THAN AFTN CU
DEVELOPING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC RIDGE IS PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH/WEST IN THE E/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE LOCALLY FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS A MINOR INCREASE
IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA.

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE THINKING FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK. AS THE SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, AND AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW TOMORROW (AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DISTURBANCE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY), AM MORE
CONFIDENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON FATHER`S
DAY. AS SUCH, HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOMORROW MORNING,
TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE POPS TOMORROW AFTN. WHILE WIDESPREAD SVR WX
IS NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 40MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT. INCREASING MOISTURE/PWATS ~2" WILL
ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS, LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL.

WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY, SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ALOFT,
TRANSLATING TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS
TIME WITH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE. HAVE ONLY MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SITUATED SOUTH OF THE
CWA (OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH AL) BY MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER LINGERS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS BREAK IS SHORT-LIVED, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW, WILL LEAVE THE
CURRENT 20-POP IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AFTN, AND WILL INTRODUCE A 20-POP
ON SATURDAY AFTN. BY THIS TIME, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR AFTN/EVENING STORMS AS WE SHIFT INTO MORE OF A TRUE
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY, AND DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET EACH NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES AS WELL, TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 EACH DAY. MORNING LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT,
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFT 20Z.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE PREVAILING TAF
GROUPS, BUT HAVE MENTIONED A CB LAYER FOR THE EXPECTED CONVECTION. IN
AND NEAR TSRA, CONDITIONS MAY DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF
PERIODS DUE TO +RA.

AK

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.